Supply Chain Secrets

Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers
NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall
Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing
The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028
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NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one
June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth
Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez
Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves
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Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs you
What index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your business
The current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving it
Escalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulation
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Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months running
The alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55%
How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong one
NYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797.
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Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same week
The Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz
Rising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge"
Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at once
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