"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102. NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growthTraditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehiclesChinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goalsThe Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violenceAn economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like HamasGulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertiseIsrael has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticismIsrael's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliancesIsrael remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilitiesRegular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extremeYoung political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist contentThe speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipatedUnlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes outDiscussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politicsConcern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringeThe conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengageThere's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents-Timestamps:00:00 — Introduction00:24 — Europe and Russia03:02 — China and Electric Cars04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement22:50 — Staffers and Extremism24:25 – Sponsor: Found25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics34:11 — Race and Identity38:06 — Islam and Immigration38:44 — Identitarian Populism41:44 — Closing Thoughts-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.-Timestamps:00:00 Introduction05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities28:10 – Sponsor: Found41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro-Listen to the Sphere Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ-FOLLOW on X:Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_enNoah - https://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term-Timestamps:00:00 — Intro00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges32:20 — Sponsor: Found33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.–SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠–FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion–Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: ⁠https://x.com/genzcash⁠NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102⁠NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-termEmployment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workersData Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicleBond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financingMultiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moatsVenture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categoriesQuotes:"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik TorenbergLINKS:The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to [email protected] ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.