The Wall Street Skinny

Short interest in the S&P 500 is sitting near its highest level since 2010, Jamie Dimon says he won't touch US stocks or Treasuries at these prices, and SpaceX is the ninth-most-shorted stock in the market ahead of its very first earnings report. So this week we're asking: why is everyone so bearish when the market is up more than 15% from the March lows? What did Alphabet's first-ever negative free cash flow quarter reveal about the real cost of the AI buildout? And when the five biggest hyperscalers are planning to spend nearly as much as the US military in a single year, who's actually going to fund it — and at what price?

That last question took us straight to the bond market, where things look even scarier. Why are Meta, Oracle, and SpaceX's 30-year bonds trading 40-60 basis points wider just weeks after issuance? Why have 30-year Treasury yields held above 5.00% for the longest stretch in two decades — and is 5.00% the new floor instead of the ceiling? With a Fed meeting days away and Chairman Warsh's hawkish instincts colliding with the biggest negative CPI print since 2020, we dig into what the rates market is telling us about risk premiums across every asset class... and whether anyone wants to own anything right now.

We're talking about the buzziest --- and most controversial --- book of the summer: "Yesteryear" by Caro Claire Burke. It poses a question no one's brave enough to answer: are trad wives and career women fundamentally at odds? Or are they two sides of the same coin, minted by a bigger system that profits from their fight?

As two Wall Street veterans recently profiled in Bloomberg for our new career as "finance influencers", we HAD to talk about the novel everyone is calling "rage bait", and we've got quite a lot to say. Fair warning: we spoil everything, INCLUDING the plot twist that has readers and critics alike up in arms.

Why is a finance show covering a book about a trad wife influencer? The biggest names in this space, like Ballerina Farms and Nara Smith, are pulling in millions every year. The raw milk industry is a multi-billion dollar megalith expected to double in the next few years. And all of this is fueling a vertical of the creator economy that is growing in size (and scandals). What happens when a woman builds an empire by performing traditional acts of subservient domesticity on the most modern machine ever invented? We also turn the lens on ourselves, as moms, influencers, and educators --- where's the line between education and performance, and what responsibilities come along with influence?

Whether you loved this book, hated it, or refuse to read it on principle, we want to know what you think! Let us know in the comments...

With hyperscalers like Meta, Google, Amazon and SpaceXAI burning through cash, we decided to answer the question underneath all of it: what is this money actually buying?

In this episode we start high level with a primer on the AI ecosystem or what Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang calls the "five-layer cake" of AI — energy, chips, infrastructure, models, applications. We get into the vocabulary everyone uses and nobody defines: what a hyperscaler actually is, how it differs from a frontier model company like OpenAI or Anthropic, why Oracle only plays in one layer while Google plays in all five, and what a NeoCloud like CoreWeave is really doing when it borrows against its own chips. Then we get into the grid — all three of them — including how power prices get set, the difference between regulated and deregulated states, why Meta's $200 billion Project Hyperion campus in Louisiana needs enough electricity to power half of Manhattan in the summer, and why the new rule for data centers is essentially "bring your own electrons." We also dig into the tax incentives driving the timing of all this spend, and why states are competing so ferociously for projects that employ almost no one once the construction crews go home.

Then we bring on an extra special guest: power expert. Ron Kelly, who spent 50 years in power and energy — as an engineer, at Calpine, and developing natural gas-fired power plants and solar plants all over the United States the country. He also happens to be Kristen's dad.

His take is bracing: he's seen this movie before. Between 1995 and 2005, roughly 300 gigawatts of power projects were announced on the promise of the internet. 168 got built, 130 were canceled, the rest died, and Enron, Mirant, NRG, and Calpine all ended up in Chapter 11. Today's data center pipeline is about the same 300 gigawatts. Ron explains risks that could complicate the build out necessary to get all the needed power infrastructure online: the interconnection studies, transformer backlogs — plus what he really thinks about the security of the largest machine humans have ever built.

Connect with Ron at / ronald-kelly-pe-mba-3587a718

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How much do people on Wall Street actually get paid? In this episode, we're pulling back the curtain on real compensation numbers for the first decade of a finance career — from analyst to vice president, roughly ages 21 to 30. We break down pay across the investment banking division on the sell side, plus the most coveted buy-side exits: private equity and private credit. For the first time, we're sharing hard data covering base salaries, bonuses, top-bucket vs. bottom-bucket payouts, and how deferred cash and stock create "golden handcuffs" as you climb the ladder.

We're joined by the anonymous voice behind High Yield Harry and founder of Buy Side Hub, a platform that crowdsources real, anonymous compensation data from across the industry. Together we dig into how on-cycle private equity recruiting has evolved (and gotten absurdly early), why banks are now fighting to keep their analysts instead of spitting them out after two years, what carry actually is and how it differs between megafunds and lower middle market shops, and whether the buy side is still the promised land — or whether staying on the sell side might actually be the better trade in today's market.

Whether you're a college student targeting your first analyst seat, a junior banker weighing an exit, or just curious what these jobs really pay, this episode gives you the data and context to understand your leverage. We also get into hours worked across private credit and private equity, the rise of finance influencers, the declining value proposition of business school, and how AI is reshaping the industry. Check out Buy Side Hub at buysidehub.com for more compensation data, and don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your questions in the comments!

High Yield Harry, an anonymous former credit investor who became a large FinTwit personality. "Harry" runs Buyside Hub, a Compensation Analytics platform for Wall Street professionals, and has a few newsletters including The Wall Street Rollup.
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After the largest IPO in history (SpaceX, ticker SPCX, priced at $135), only about 5% of the company — roughly $83 billion — is actually free to trade. Insiders are locked up, the banks that underwrote the deal can't lend shares to short sellers, and index funds are being forced to buy as SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 and the Russel. In this episode of The Wall Street Skinny, Jen and Kristen, both former Morgan Stanley investment bankers, break down how the IPO was engineered — and the question every SpaceX investor should be asking: what happens when all that locked-up stock can finally sell?

First, we cover what is normal in an IPO so you can see what isn't. We cover price talk vs. the $135 take-it-or-leave-it pricing, the green shoe, perpetual futures, and the fast-track Nasdaq-100 inclusion pulling in billions of passive buying.

We lay out the risks, meaning the the wall of supply coming. Unlike the standard 180-day lockup, SpaceX is staggering its release: the first ~$240-500+ billion of stock unlocks after the first earnings report around September, with more tranches every few weeks after that — over $1 trillion freely tradeable by December, on the way to a ~$2 trillion overhang once Elon Musk's one-year lockup rolls off. 

But we also lay out why the passive buying actually helps dampen that supply PLUS why many institutional investors are NOT bearish on the stock despite the insane valuation.

If you want to learn MORE from us, check out our Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals course where we go deep into accounting, Excel and Financial modeling, valuation (DCF, comps etc.), M&A analysis and LBO analysis. https://thewallstreetskinny.com/investment-banking-private-equity-fundamentals/

If you're just here to have fun, subscribe for more high finance explained through the lens of pop culture, markets, and your favorite shows.
Shop our Self Paced Courses:
Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HERE
Fixed Income Sales & Trading HERE
Subscribe to our Substack: https://substack.com/@thewallstreetskinny