Decoder with Nilay Patel

Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways. 

My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.

Links:

Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge

How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT

With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media

Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media

Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge

Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge

Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder

Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg

Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason  | The Verge

It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
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Today, I’m talking with Zillow CEO Jeremy Wacksman. Zillow is one of those apps that really exemplifies what you might call the smartphone era of software: the company built a great mobile app for looking at real estate listings, and it turned into not just entertainment for so many of us, but what has become a vertically-integrated platform for buying, selling, and renting real estate.

Jeremy’s argument is that the future of Zillow looks a lot like an end-to-end business platform for real estate agents, and we spent a lot of time talking about whether a business as local and as relationship driven as real estate can benefit from platform-level scale in the way he’s proposing.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

Zillow’s new AI staging feature is impressively unimpressive | The Verge

Zillow’s upgraded AI search will show you more homes you can’t afford | The Verge

Zillow adds DMs so you can chat about homes you’ll never buy | The Verge

FTC accuses Zillow of paying $100 million to ‘dismantle’ Redfin | The Verge

Housing is frozen. Wacksman knows you’re still scrolling | NYT

Wacksman on the US housing market | Bloomberg Talks

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt. This was edited by Xander Adams. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re talking about the future of Xbox. Phil Spencer, a two-time Decoder guest who’s led Xbox for more than a decade, is stepping down. But in a shocking twist, his deputy long-assumed successor Sarah Bond is also out too, and the Xbox division is now in the hands of an Asha Sharma, one of Microsoft’s AI executives with no prior game industry experience.

There is no better person to talk to about all of this than Tom Warren, senior editor here at The Verge and author of the excellent Notepad newsletter. Tom is actually on parental leave right now, but Microsoft has a longstanding habit of disrupting his well-earned time off. So, Tom was gracious enough to come on the show after publishing a major scoop about what went down at Xbox this past week.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links:

Inside Microsoft’s big Xbox leadership shake-up | The Verge

Billions of dollars later and still nobody knows what an Xbox is | The Verge

Xbox chief Phil Spencer is leaving Microsoft | The Verge

Read Xbox chief Phil Spencer’s memo about leaving Microsoft | The Verge

Here’s what Xbox is working on for 2026 | The Verge

AMD hints Microsoft could launch its next-gen Xbox in 2027 | The Verge

The next Xbox is going to be very different | The Verge

Xbox co-founder believes it’s being ‘sunsetted’ in favor of AI | VGC

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, I’m talking with Hank Green, a longtime friend of Decoder and the co-founder and now former owner of Complexly, an online education company he started with his brother John in 2012. I say former owner because Hank and John have just converted Complexly into a nonprofit and given up their ownership of the company in the process.

That’s some of the purest Decoder bait that ever was, because it’s all about how you structure a company and how you make decisions about changing that structure. So of course I had to bring Hank back on to talk all about it.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

Greens’ studio becomes nonprofit as they aim to make ‘trustworthy content’ | AP

Hank Green makes Nilay Patel explain why websites have a future | Decoder (2024)

Why Hank Green can’t quit YouTube for TikTok | Decoder (2022)

Hank Green and Sam Reich on running content companies | Decoder

Hank Green and Sal Khan on AI in educational video | Decoder

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today we're talking about the war for AI talent. Right now, the hottest job market on the planet is for AI researchers. And the vast majority of these people are concentrated into a small number of hugely valuable, extremely fast-growing companies in the San Francisco Bay Area, most of which are now paying some of the highest salaries in the history of tech to poach from one another.

We’ve been dying to really dig in and try to unpack what's going on with all these talent moves in AI. So we brought on Verge senior AI reporter Hayden Field, who's been covering the revolving door of the AI industry really closely and also the broader culture that's motivating workers to jump ship. 

Links:

What’s behind the mass exodus at xAI? | The Verge

OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger is joining OpenAI | The Verge

Two more xAI co-founders leave after the SpaceX merger | The Verge

AI safety leader says 'world is in peril' and quits to study poetry | BBC

OpenAI is making the mistakes Facebook made. I quit. | NYT

Anthropic’s chief on AI: ‘We don’t know if the models are conscious’ | NYT

Meet the one woman Anthropic trusts to teach AI morals | WSJ

OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO in race to beat Anthropic to market | WSJ

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices