Investec Focus Radio UK

Oil markets enter the week looking calm despite renewed US-Iran tensions. Brent fell near $71 a barrel last Friday as hopes of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improved, before a drone strike on a container ship.

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Brent fell below $76/b last week after the U.S. and Iran reached an initial agreement, easing some of the war-related risk premium. However, uncertainty remains over the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict in Lebanon, and whether energy flows can return to normal, leaving markets caught between short-term supply risks and a longer-term oversupply outlook.

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Oil markets eased sharply after the US and Iran agreed the outline of an interim deal, although the agreement has not yet been formally signed and key details remain unpublished. President Trump announced the removal of the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Pakistan confirmed a ceasefire between the parties.

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Brent crude briefly approached $98/bbl after renewed military exchanges between Iran and Israel heightened concerns over Middle East supply risks. Iran launched rockets following Israeli strikes in Beirut, while Israel subsequently targeted Iranian military sites despite reported US efforts to restrain escalation.

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Brent crude has recovered to around $93.50/bbl after falling below $90 last week on optimism that a US-Iran ceasefire agreement could ease tensions in the Gulf. However, reports of further negotiations, renewed military action around the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns over mine clearance have tempered expectations of a swift resolution.

Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec