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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged
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949 episodios

  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git

    18/07/2026 | 1 h 8 min
    Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.
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    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations
    06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns
    12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning
    18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals
    25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure
    36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets
    39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained
    47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from
    55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour
    01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy
    01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investing
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg

    15/07/2026 | 1 h 15 min
    More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Cem on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics
    09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets
    15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading
    21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets
    31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected
    37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications
    43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals
    48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months
    58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally
    01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities
    01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom
    01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from here
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne

    11/07/2026 | 1 h 3 min
    Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing
    05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading
    12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers
    15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story
    20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy
    30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following
    38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following
    46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure
    49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled
    55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading
    01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend following
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    GM104: How the Dollar Quietly Took Over the World ft. Brendan Greeley

    08/07/2026 | 55 min
    The US dollar has become so familiar that most investors rarely stop to ask how it became the world's dominant currency or why that dominance has endured. Brendan Greeley joins Alan Dunne to trace the dollar's remarkable journey from a silver coin in sixteenth century Europe to the foundation of modern global finance. Along the way they explore the hidden mechanics of money creation, the evolution of offshore dollars, the Federal Reserve's expanding role, and why the institutions supporting the dollar may matter far more than politics. It is a conversation that challenges many of the assumptions investors hold about money, banking and monetary policy.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
    Follow Brendan on X.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Why the Fed's balance sheet deserves far more scrutiny
    00:57 - Brendan Greeley's journey from journalism to monetary history
    06:36 - How studying financial history changed his view of economics
    11:38 - The hidden difference between big money and small money
    17:43 - How the dollar existed before the United States
    26:40 - Why the dollar became the world's reserve currency
    29:36 - The birth of the Eurodollar market and offshore money creation
    34:53 - What really supports the dollar's global dominance
    40:09 - Could global finance split into competing currency blocs
    44:21 - Has the Federal Reserve become too powerful
    50:01 - Why QE, the Fed's balance sheet and future reforms matter
    52:53 - Brendan Greeley's essential book recommendation
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
  • Top Traders Unplugged

    SI407: Why America Is Rewriting the Rules of Capitalism ft. Cem Karsan

    04/07/2026 | 1 h 1 min
    Markets may be entering one of the most important regime shifts in decades. Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to argue that the United States is moving away from traditional free market capitalism towards a far more strategic model where government, markets and technology become increasingly intertwined. They discuss why positioning continues to dominate market behaviour, the growing role of sovereign investment, the future of AI driven capital spending, and why the next major turning point may arrive after the US midterm elections. It is a conversation that challenges conventional market thinking and explores how politics, policy and capital are becoming inseparable.
    -----
    50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
    -----

    Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
    IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
    Follow Cem on Twitter.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - America at 250 and why major turning points often arrive after two and a half centuries
    03:43 - Why positioning matters more than headlines in today's markets
    07:53 - Soft US jobs data and the disconnect between markets and the economy
    09:15 - June performance review for trend followers and CTAs
    15:14 - Why America may be adopting a more strategic form of capitalism
    19:14 - The case for a US sovereign wealth fund and reshaping the financial system
    30:31 - Why the US dollar remains America's greatest strategic advantage
    37:52 - AI investment, capital spending and why this cycle may be different
    45:46 - Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the changing relationship between the Fed and Treasury
    50:03 - The Summer of George and why market positioning dominates the summer months
    52:22 - Why the US midterm elections could become the next major market catalyst
    57:59 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2026
    Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
    ----
    PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
    1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
    In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
    2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
    One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
    3. Other Resources that can help you
    And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
    Privacy Policy
    Disclaimer
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Acerca de Top Traders Unplugged
Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com
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