Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Harry on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments
09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review
18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance
22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience
30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research
36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters
46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks
56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios
58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules
01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following
01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies
01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughts
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Paul on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking
01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing
04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations
08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations
11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment
15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model
20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing
24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model
26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities
31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio
38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio
43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha
45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers
51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures
57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investors
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Follow David on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge
08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems
18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets
26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility
31:38 - Where major market moves really come from
39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing
46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk
51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers
56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility
01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk
01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios
01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk
01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex markets
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks
00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history
06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age
13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions
18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think
21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows
27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history
30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions
35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions
39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger
44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend
47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008
51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks
56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation
06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence
13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment
20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers
28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following
34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies
37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors
44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets
50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum
58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested?
01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors?
01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investing
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer