Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar
06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers
11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation
17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios
21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly
28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change
31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world
41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection
47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return
52:38 - How investors end up timing liquid alternatives badly
58:12 - How institutions can make it easier to stay invested
01:02:50 - Can packaging trend with other assets solve the problem?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
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Disclaimer

Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Christian on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again
02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime
06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?
10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?
17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert
22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy
28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities
38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?
42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap
45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market
52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time
58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds
01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating
01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much more
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach
01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work
08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict
09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns
13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned
16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions
22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds
27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us
31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022
36:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs
38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital
44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns
50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult
54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie
01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details
01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager
01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look bad
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets
02:46 - How football results can move stock markets
07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment
11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals
16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge
21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative
26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle
30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes
35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities
37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions
39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers
44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions
47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters
52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions
55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion
58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the book
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming
00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar
03:34 - A strong year for trend following
05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?
09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries
12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically
18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?
19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth
25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system
33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market
37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock
42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets
46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead
48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next
50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?
54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns
01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer