Run the Numbers

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with financial historian and PayPal Mafia member Aman Varejee to explore the recurring patterns behind economic bubbles. Drawing on research from his upcoming book “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles”, Aman explains what defines a bubble, the psychology that fuels speculative manias, and why major technological shifts—from railways to the internet to AI—often coincide with periods of extreme market speculation.
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SPONSORS:
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Aman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/
https://practicalvc.com/
Aman’s book: https://bigbubbletrouble.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
1:38 Welcome and guest intro
3:48 Defining a bubble
6:03 Cognitive biases behind bubbles
10:27 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs
13:56 Do bubbles produce breakthroughs?
14:35 Dot-com bubble — winners and losers
16:00 UK railway bubble
21:24 Bubble warning signs
25:30 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome
28:47 Do bubbles attract grifters?
31:11 Role of government in bubbles
35:59 Bubble duration vs. severity
37:32 2008 — roots go back to 1992
40:27 Are bubbles connected through time?
43:38 Are we in an AI bubble?
45:06 Nvidia vs. Cisco valuation comparison
46:52 Circular finance in AI
49:16 FP&A at PayPal under Thiel and Musk
52:02 PayPal's referral campaign and LTV/CAC
54:40 Book plug
55:09 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Fintech #EconomicBubbles #FinanceHistory #CFO

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Jason Lee, CFO of Faire, to unpack the economics of wholesale marketplaces. They break down how Faire connects independent brands with local retailers, the key metrics that matter in marketplace businesses, and ROI as a decision-making framework. Jason also shares lessons from scaling Square through its IPO and how finance leaders navigate valuation resets in private markets.
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SPONSORS:
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Jason: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lee-11787020/
Faire: https://www.faire.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
3:01 How Faire serves retailers
5:49 Revenue model and retention metrics
8:21 Recurring vs. reoccurring revenue
11:54 Sponsors — Metronome | RightRev | Rillet
15:17 Input vs. output metrics
17:13 The business equation
19:08 Metric ownership
22:07 Killing metrics: signal to noise
23:21 800 metrics at Faire
24:51 Customer count as a misleading metric
26:04 Sponsors — Tabs | Abacum | Brex
29:25 Planning cadences at Faire
32:41 When to reallocate resources
36:40 ROI as a framework
40:25 Portfolio view of investments
43:53 Discipline is knowing where to say yes
47:11 Faire's valuation reset
50:49 Tender offer mechanics
55:33 Screwing up IR at Square IPO
56:52 Advice to younger self
58:44 AI at Faire
59:32 Claude connected to data warehouse
1:00:16 Tariff analysis with AI
1:02:38 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Marketplace #CFO #SaaS #FinanceLeadership

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Mike Wilcox, CFO of Blockchain.com, to unpack the economics of crypto exchanges. They discuss how platforms serve both retail traders and institutional clients, the different ways exchanges generate revenue, and the tension between blockchain’s radical transparency and the valuable first-party data exchanges control.
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SPONSORS:
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-wilcox-65078a12/
https://www.blockchain.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
Here's the trimmed version:
0:00 Preview and intro2:12 Tradfi to crypto transition3:49 Blockchain.com origin5:45 CFO as business partner6:01 Finance team backgrounds7:02 Banking relationships8:51 On ramps and off ramps8:51 Retail vs. institutional10:53 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev14:09 B2C to B2B motion16:04 Shared infrastructure18:31 Go-to-market differences19:00 Brand equity and low CAC20:06 Education as top-of-funnel21:13 Institutional vs. retail volatility22:37 Exchange vs. brokerage model23:56 How brokerages make money24:06 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum27:31 Setting take rates29:13 Distribution flywheel30:13 Data as a moat31:13 Nigeria market playbook31:44 Crypto balance sheet33:25 Duration matching34:37 Transaction-level risk36:12 Latency arms race37:28 Stablecoins and CFOs38:13 Risk vectors40:01 Annual planning41:51 Lightning round43:00 Finance software stack43:31 Advice to younger self44:09 Credits

CJ sits down with Marshall Hawks, a 20-year veteran of venture lending and author of Venture Debt Deals. They cover the real rules of thumb behind deal sizing, why lenders underwrite likelihood of raising again (not breakout outcomes), how banks and private credit differ, the three real sources of repayment, and how to actually run a venture debt process without blowing your legal budget.
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SPONSORS:
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That's why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you're scaling on an ERP that wasn't built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
LINKS:
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Marshall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marshallhawks/
Marshall's website: https://www.marshallhawks.com
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
3:23 Marshall's background and the book
4:47 Venture Deals as inspiration
6:30 Companies Marshall has worked with
6:49 The venture debt sweet spot
8:01 Why venture debt follows equity raises
10:55 The 25–40% rule of thumb
12:08 AI companies and the limits of the rule
13:58 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome
17:15 How lenders think vs. investors
19:12 The three sources of repayment
21:37 Venture debt and the AI boom
23:52 Banks vs. private credit
26:28 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs
29:57 Private credit pricing and warrants
33:04 Syndicated deals
35:04 Legal timelines
38:13 Who pays the legal bill?
40:06 Why your GC shouldn't quarterback the deal
41:30 What forecast to give your lender
43:37 Reporting cadence
45:57 Bad news should travel fast
47:49 The Twitch case study
50:19 Are we over our skis in 2026?
54:50 Where to get Venture Debt Deals
55:09 Credits

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Superhuman’s Head of Analytics Chris Byington. They break down where analytics should sit inside a company, why dashboards often fail, and how the best teams connect metrics, OKRs, and forecasting to real decisions. Chris also explains why “ship goals” can mislead teams and what CEOs and CFOs should expect from a truly decision-driving data function.
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SPONSORS:
Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run
Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
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LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Chris: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-byington/
Superhuman: https://superhuman.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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RELATED EPISODES:
Matt Hudson Episode
https://youtu.be/_FWGYkzhymQ
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
3:29 Centralized analytics team
7:29 Start analytics with problems not tools
9:41 Lead with the problem
10:14 Align on growth model
11:46 Pre-commit to decisions
13:14 Sponsors — Tabs | Abacum | Brex
16:35 Dashboards need growth context
19:10 Where analytics should sit
21:18 Pros and cons of analytics in finance
23:18 Operations vs revenue org placement
24:11 Hub-and-spoke analytics model
25:18 What “embedded” actually means
26:14 Sponsors — Metronome | RightRev | Rillet
29:38 When self-service analytics works
32:04 Self-serve pitfalls
33:44 Buy vs build BI
35:44 Analytics owns metrics
38:26 Hero metric example
41:41 Outcomes > shipping
42:14 Set goals before build
43:57 Metrics are outcome proxies
46:40 Easy way to say no
48:29 Start answers with yes
52:17 Proving analytics impact
56:19 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast