Run the Numbers

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down SpaceX’s S-1, unpacking what the filing reveals about Starlink, xAI, X, common control accounting, revenue, losses, CapEx, and Elon Musk’s Mars-linked compensation structure.
—
SPONSORS:
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
—
LINKS: 
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 SpaceX S1 breakdown
0:50 Elon's Mars colony comp plan
2:03 Common control accounting: SpaceX + xAI + X
3:04 What SpaceX actually does
3:43 How reusable rockets work
4:24 Launch cost curve: foundation of everything
5:49 Launch services: $8B, 85% of global launches
6:44 Starlink: $11.4B, 63% EBITDA margins
7:36 xAI and X: burning $1B/month
8:22 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY
11:18 Colossus and orbital AI thesis
11:41 Revenue, segments and CapEx breakdown
14:54 RPO: $28.4B backlog
15:18 Starlink subscribers and ARPU decline
16:01 Target valuation: $1.5–1.75 trillion
16:47 Starlink deep dive
18:05 International pricing strategy
21:38 The consolidated entity problem
22:28 Related party section: nine pages
22:32 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph
26:15 Valor Equity: $20B in equipment leases
27:05 Tesla cross-ownership and Terrafab
28:23 R&D: $8.6B, 46% of revenue
30:33 Starship: key risk and growth linchpin
31:41 Red flag 1: CEO comp tied to Mars colony
32:22 Red flag 2: Musk concentration risk
32:49 Red flag 3: Cursor option — $10B downside
33:36 Red flag 4: X advertising is shrinking
34:06 IPO structure and SPCX ticker
34:50 30% retail allocation, no lockups
35:44 S&P 500 inclusion forces buying within 15 days
37:54 Valuation: 60–70x forward revenue
38:43 Peer comparison
39:44 What you're buying at $1.5T
40:53 CFO comp: the only sane plan in the filing
41:25 Bitcoin on the balance sheet
41:57 Credits

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with ParkerGale Operating Partner Paul Stansik to break down five ways CFOs can help build a better sales engine: making the budget mean something, improving forecasting, sharpening metrics, getting involved in key RevOps moments, and building real trust with sales.
—
SPONSORS:
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulstansik/
Company: https://www.parkergale.com/
Hello Operator: https://hellooperator.substack.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
RELATED EPISODES:
Is a weekly martini ARR? | with Dave Kellogg
https://youtu.be/Yb1lUQLJ6qw
—
TIMESTAMPS:
All verified. Here are the timestamps:
0:00 Preview and intro
2:27 Parker Gale and Paul's role
3:52 Topic: how CFOs build a better sales engine
6:21 1: Make the budget mean something
8:11 Budget segmentation and cleaving the business
10:54 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet
14:08 2: Help emphasize forecasting
17:23 Forecasting as non-threatening co-construction
19:37 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex
23:06 3: Lend a hand with data and metrics
25:32 Walking sales through NDR levers
27:16 Metrics tied to exit readiness
28:00 4: Get involved in a few RevOps spots
29:04 Pricing, proposals, and quoting
31:22 Kill your SKUs
32:51 Selling with certainty: quote formatting
34:26 CFO letter for enterprise deals
37:37 5: Build a great relationship with sales
37:59 You can't fix a secret
39:23 EQ over IQ for finance leaders
40:41 Recap: all five tips
42:11 Credits
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFO #SalesStrategy #FinanceLeadership #RevenueOperations

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Figure Technologies CFO Macrina Kgil to break down how Figure’s business model works, why traditional lending remains so bloated, and how speed in origination and funding flows through financial performance. They also cover stablecoins, blockchain as invisible infrastructure, AI in accounting, and scaling finance with fewer than 35 people.
—
SPONSORS:
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/macrina/
Company: https://www.figure.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
3:10 Working for a CEO who's a former CFO
5:00 What Figure does and how it makes money
6:57 Blockchain's first commercial use case
8:17 50%+ margins, path to 60%
9:23 Sponsors — Brex | Aleph | RightRev
12:56 HELOC origination: 45 days to 5 days
14:26 Where the lending system is bloated
15:56 Credit and liquidity as core risks
17:06 Blockchain makes the marketplace transparent
18:10 Risk as a fintech CFO
19:49 Sponsors — Rillet | EY | SpendHound
22:58 Crypto on the balance sheet
24:12 Blockchain becomes invisible like cloud
25:44 Stablecoins explained
27:47 YLDS: Figure's yield-bearing stablecoin
29:02 Crawl, walk, run stablecoin strategy
34:32 IPO process: what got easier
35:03 What got harder: testing the waters
37:12 Blockchain KPIs and investor conversations
38:21 Finance team: 130 people down to 35
40:00 SEC engagement: storytelling not financials
40:49 IPO advice: pick durable KPIs
42:05 First earnings after IPO: don't miss
43:13 AI automation goal: 60% by 2026
46:11 Director of Finance Transformation hire
47:40 30-60-90 for the transformation role
48:58 Long-Ass Lightning Round
52:20 Credits

Cerebras is going public with the largest commercial chip ever built, $510M in 2025 revenue, and a $24.6B backlog mostly tied to OpenAI. CJ breaks down the company’s wafer-scale AI bet, why inference changed the story, the strange customer-investor-lender relationships behind the IPO, and the big question: is Cerebras the next NVIDIA-style infrastructure winner, or a concentrated hardware company with a very expensive cloud pivot?
—
SPONSORS:
SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
—
LINKS: 
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
0:59 Cerebras: the dinner plate chip
3:56 Why chip size matters for AI
5:26 Old vs. new AI: inference is the bottleneck
7:30 Revenue: 20x in 3 years
7:49 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph
11:33 Gross margin
12:02 Net income: the one-time accounting trick
12:41 Operating cash flow whipsaw
13:24 RPO: $24.6B backlog
13:58 Customer concentration: the UAE entities
18:06 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY
21:05 Cloud revenue: the inverse SaaS story
22:23 Cloud gross margin collapse
23:53 G42 warrants for pennies
29:14 The OpenAI warrant: Funky Town
31:08 $40B market cap milestone
31:36 R&D and S&M breakdown
33:15 Balance sheet and cash burn
35:59 Red flag 1: accounting weaknesses
36:37 Red flag 2: one foundry, no supply deal
37:28 Red flag 3: UAE geopolitical risk
38:10 Red flag 4: cloud is unproven
39:02 Cap table: founders diluted
40:43 Voting control: Class A, B, and N
41:15 Valuation: 10–13x forward revenue
41:48 Peer comparison
43:47 CEO's prior issues
46:10 Credits
Nothing said or created by this podcast is business or investment advice
#RunTheNumbersPodcast #IPO #Semiconductors #AIStrategy #FinanceLeadership

David Bell, co-founder of Idea Farm Ventures and early investor behind Warby Parker, Harry’s, and Diapers.com, and CJ break down how consumer investing works. They cover why durable consumer companies require more than clean unit economics, how to apply SaaS-style thinking to businesses without contracts, and why the best opportunities often live in boring gray space.
—
SPONSORS:
EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups
SpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cj
Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics
Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run
RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ
Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj
—
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-bell-086820/
Company: https://www.ideafarmventures.com/
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
—
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Preview and intro
3:16 Edge: economics and psychology
5:21 Best ideas in boring gray space
5:41 Functional, emotional, and symbolic value
7:08 Grüns gummies and divisibility
9:02 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex
12:31 Ideation: personal pain vs. market analysis
13:17 Diapers.com and the Starbucks origin story
16:00 Warby Parker: asking why
16:33 LTV to CAC in D2C
18:02 Retention math: 85 to 90% can double LTV
19:00 Milkman and recurring vs. reoccurring
20:42 Trust economics
22:38 Warby stores boost online sales
22:58 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet
26:12 Away store as advertising
27:46 Warby discovery: dots on a map
30:10 Home try-on word of mouth value
32:09 D2C unit economics mistakes
34:55 Innovating on distribution
35:50 Touchland in Sephora: right channel, right signal
37:00 Capital allocation: margin and low CAC first
39:18 Sequencing: people, brand, then inventory
40:58 Product vs. brand: the 8x10 thought experiment
42:23 Consumer monetization shifts
45:45 The gravity framework
50:32 Isolation principle: most underused lever
52:36 Working backwards from exit at day zero
57:23 What if your business isn't venture scale?
59:32 Book plug: Founders Gold
1:00:25 Credits