RiskReversal Pod

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Guy Adami welcomes Mike Tracey, Vice President of Risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, to discuss how credit and debt markets are increasingly driving equity action, with bond volatility and elevated yields pressuring the AI CapEx trade now funded more by debt. They examine revenue-whisper risk around OpenAI and Anthropic and describe Oracle as a tracking stock for OpenAI expectations, given its dependence on data-center buildouts. Despite the S&P 500 near highs and a VIX around 16, they argue dispersion and rotation are masking risk and that investors should watch more targeted measures like VXN and SMH volatility. The conversation highlights cybersecurity as a major “unknown unknown,” the fragility of hyperscaler CapEx “sanctity,” gold’s appeal amid persistent deficits, uninspiring Bitcoin flows, risks from short-vol positioning, and potential market impacts from midterm-election surprises and Middle East escalation feeding into inflation, yields, and corporate debt.

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The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

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On the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan interviews David Rosenberg (aka Rosie) about the CPI report, Fed policy, and what Rosenberg views as an AI-driven market “mania” and one-trick-pony economy. Rosenberg says the latest core CPI print is disappointing but argues inflation is being driven largely by energy-related supply shocks, with weakening real wages, slowing real spending, cracking housing, stable money growth, and range-bound inflation expectations. He warns the Fed’s hawkish pivot risks a consumer-led recession, and highlights extreme market concentration, deteriorating breadth, negative equity risk premium, and heavy household equity exposure as signs of fragility reminiscent of 1999. The conversation also covers AI capex crowding out broader investment, cracks in credit-sensitive sectors, and Rosenberg’s new book, Bear in the Bull Ring, whose proceeds he donates to charity.

—FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan welcomes Deirdre Bosa to the Okay, Computer podcast to discuss her upcoming daily Yahoo Finance show, “Deirdre Bosa Live,” launching November 9 and airing weekdays 1–2 PM PT. They dig into how Microsoft has shifted Copilot toward a model-agnostic approach—routing tasks to the most cost-effective models amid open-source commoditization—while also launching its Maia 300 custom AI chip to manage supply and spending uncertainty. The conversation touches on Meta’s product-driven resurgence, enterprise adoption dynamics, and investor concerns about AI infrastructure capex and debt. They compare emerging personal AI assistants (Muse, Instinct, and OpenAI “Dot”), emphasizing utility, branding, and trust/security as prerequisites for broader adoption, with Apple and identity layers like 1Password seen as potential catalysts. They close on China’s low-cost, high-volume token usage pressuring global pricing and shaping open-source competition.

—FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

CHECKOUT CALEB'S SUBSTACK: investopedia.substack.com/t/caleb-silvers-signal

It’s the most critical week of the year as investors face a wave of earnings reports and the latest inflation reading with bond yields and oil prices pushing higher. Risk Reversal’s Dan Nathan drops in with what to watch and listen for as the stock market inches higher on weak breadth and hopes that there are still leaves on the money tree for the AI buildout. Plus, the bull market turns four this week and history teaches us that they’ve been running longer and stronger in recent history, but the older they get, the harder the gains. And, the new price tag on the “American Dream,” tops $5.3 million, but most households are trapped in an under-funded reality.

—FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami reunite to preview the week, focusing on two late-week tech stories: a Nikkei report that Apple may have cut iPhone 18/18 Pro component orders, and market volatility sparked by questions around OpenAI’s revenue figures, including debate over annual run-rate calculations and implications for AI-linked stocks and “NeoCloud” customers. They discuss a macro backdrop of a 10-year yield around 5.24%, a firm dollar, subdued VIX, and sticky crude near $91 amid heightened Middle East tensions and election-related timing concerns. The pair critique Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach as yields rise despite policy aims, and debate what could bring rates down. They also discuss AI build-out financing, pulled IPOs, and upcoming CPI/PPI plus major bank earnings, emphasizing guidance, consumer delinquencies, and potential volatility into the midterms.

Show Notes

Inside Bessent’s Treasury: Tension, Turnover and Unmet Economic Goals (WSJ)

Bessent rips Wall Street Journal after report on ‘tension, turnover’ (The Hill)

Exclusive: Apple cuts iPhone 18 Pro orders due to soft demand (Nikkei)

OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled (FT)

AI agents could cost banks $500bn — by winning savers better rates (FT)

—FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.