RiskReversal Pod

Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss the April jobs report, noting payrolls rose about 115,000 versus expectations near 65,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and back-to-back monthly job gains for the first time in nearly a year. They argue the data increases pressure on the Fed not to cut rates, with markets pricing little chance of a cut and some lingering hike risk, though Thomas doesn’t expect hikes. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, equities sit at all-time highs, led narrowly by semiconductors and select tech, with limited broadening under the surface. Thomas highlights “Acceleration Nation” data points including improving hiring rates in JOLTS, strong retail sales, and roughly 25% year-over-year Q1 earnings growth, while flagging risks from CapEx/AI optimism fading or more permanent layoffs spreading to old-economy sectors. They also discuss consumer sentiment’s inflation focus, and remain constructive on energy longer term even if oil-driven froth pulls back.

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Mike Green returns to On The Tape discuss why U.S. equities hit record highs despite the Iran war and oil spike, arguing systematic 401(k) and volatility/trend strategies drove historic inflows and that markets had largely priced in fear via VIX, correlation, skew, and heavy hedging that later unwound. He critiques Nasdaq’s new low-float multiplier rules as boosting demand for IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI and warns S&P’s proposal to waive profitability requirements could turn the index into a private-equity exit vehicle and alter its historical quality bias. Green views the Fed as mostly narrative-driven except during major rate shifts, faults data-dependence, and says inflation swaps don’t show a breakout, while high rates act as a fiscal transfer that reinforces a K-shaped economy. He explains passive bond indexing can underweight long-duration Treasuries, potentially motivating buybacks/yield-curve-control-like actions. The conversation also covers AI capex, emerging AI-driven job restructuring favoring older workers, and Bitcoin’s ETF-driven financialization and limited utility.

Show Notes

Checkout Mike's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/

Follow On The Tape on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe8y7CzcjhMPTzem-Zn6sqA

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami broadcast from FactSet’s FOCUS Conference in Austin, highlighting FactSet’s AI innovations, its partnership with Risk Reversal Media, and Dan’s upcoming main-stage interview with new CEO Sanoke Viswanathan. They discuss a potential “SaaS apocalypse” narrative versus the value of closed, reliable data systems like FactSet, then shift to markets: software’s technical setup, Oracle’s overshoots, and an explosive semiconductor/memory rally (SOXX at highs) featuring sharp moves in Intel, Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, and SanDisk. They flag frothy private-market AI valuations (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX), risks of double/triple ordering and eventual margin deterioration, and cite Palantir’s weak post-earnings price action as a possible “fever break.” They also cover energy (Devon, OIH vs XLE), macro/valuation concerns, and weakening signals from Visa/Mastercard and banks. They promote the new YouTube dinner-series “Standing Table,” sponsored by Apex Fintech Solutions.

Show Notes

Watch our pod with Dan Benton: ⁠https://youtu.be/ijtHKlDYvO03⁠

Watch the trailer for 'Standing Table': ⁠https://youtu.be/JymGJWG98r0

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Join the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/

Guy Adami and Danny Moses open with a brief New York Giants aside before turning to markets, focusing on Jerome Powell’s final Fed press conference as Chair, his plan to remain a governor, and expectations that Kevin Warsh will become Fed Chair as the administration seeks more influence over the Board. They discuss how markets have stayed resilient despite $100 oil, rising global yields, a weakening yen with Japan intervention near 160, geopolitical stress, and a subdued VIX, attributing much of the strength to passive flows and forced institutional chasing. Moses flags inflation beginning to filter through via price hikes and warns the consumer may eventually feel higher energy costs. They debate energy stocks’ durability even if crude eases, remain constructive on gold amid fiscal/geopolitical risks, note elevated valuation signals like the Buffett indicator, and address concerns about “fantasy math” in AI, citing OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s tempered adoption comments and cautioning retail on private-market secondaries.

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This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform.

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Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.

Dan Nathan speaks with David Rosenberg about a market week packed with tech earnings, GDP, PCE, the Fed, oil above $100, and a sharp USD/JPY move. Rosenberg argues the U.S. economy is K-shaped, with Q1 GDP growth heavily driven by AI-related tech capex while non-tech business investment contracts, and consumer spending exceeding flat-to-negative real disposable income mainly due to a falling savings rate, wealth effects at the high end, and credit reliance at the low end amid rising delinquencies. He says most sectors are losing jobs, productivity has driven nearly all recent growth, and an oil price shock is a supply-side tax likely to weaken demand rather than create sustained inflation. They discuss a divided Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, high market concentration, extreme valuations with a near-zero equity risk premium, and whether yen moves or oil are bigger risks for equities.

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