Hidden Forces

In Episode 478 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jon Alterman, the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about why the Islamic Republic of Iran has refused to capitulate in its war with the United States and Israel,, how Russia and China are positioning themselves to exploit the conflict, and what recent wars have taught us about the future of warfare and a potential direct military confrontation between the United States and China.
The first hour examines the constellation of tools Tehran has cultivated to compensate for its conventional military weakness, and which have been deployed to great effect against the United States and Israel, and the mismatch between the speed of modern warfare and the speed with which political change is demanded in Washington, which has frustrated the architects of this latest military campaign from the outset. They also discuss the deepening of US-Israeli military integration following October 7th, the implications for peace negotiations of an Iranian political economy whose survival is bound up with its pariah status, and what a viable diplomatic off-ramp might ultimately look like for Tehran, Washington, Tel Aviv, and other countries with a vested interest in how this war turns out.
The second hour is devoted to how Moscow and Beijing are already positioning themselves to exploit the war, the structural challenges that may render China less ascendant than the consensus narrative suggests, and the rupture in transatlantic and US-Canada relations that Jon believes will leave permanent scars regardless of who occupies the White House at the end of Trump's second term. They also discuss the implications for the Gulf in light of the UAE's announced departure from OPEC, the deepening Saudi-Emirati rivalry, the durability of the "exit narrative" that has flourished among a new class of transnational elites in this more volatile global security environment, and what the war between the US, Israel, and Iran and other recent conflicts have taught us about what a direct military confrontation between the United States and China might actually look like.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 04/28/2026

In Episode 477 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Edward Luce, columnist and US national editor at the Financial Times, about the history of American Grand Strategy and the revenge of geopolitics in a new age of multipolarity and great power competition.
Kofinas and Luce trace the decline of American grand strategy back to the end of the Cold War and the emergence of a more risk-averse, process-oriented era in US foreign policy. They then discuss how the Trump administration has upended many of the practices that defined that era, introducing new risks to America's policy in the Middle East and its relationships with European and Asian allies, before turning to the administration's China strategy ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit now less than a month away.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 04/17/2026

In Episode 476 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former head of FX and EM macro research at Barclays, and Chief Economist for International Affairs at the US Treasury about the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and its implications for the global economy, global security, and the future of American military, economic, and financial power.
The first hour begins with an update on the status of Operation Epic Fury, how the evolution of the conflict has aligned with Marvin's initial expectations, and the analytical framework he uses to assess US strategic objectives and the incentives that inform the decision-making of its principal agents—most notably the President himself. They draw historical analogies to previous Middle Eastern conflicts, assess risks to maritime security and global trade, and examine the evolving incentive structures of the US, Israel, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, and China. The conversation also explores the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict, including the fracturing of the post-war liberal order, Europe's precarious position, and the possibility of a far-reaching strategic realignment that could reshape America's alliances and its role as the world's dominant maritime and economic power.
The second hour opens with a psychological portrait of Donald Trump—his reliance on inductive reasoning, his strategic use of misdirection, his narcissism, and what Marvin describes as a genuine ambition to secure his place among history's greatest presidents. They discuss how the skills that made Trump successful in business and on the campaign trail may fall short of what is required to navigate international crises and lead America through this Fourth Turning, and how an unpopular war is eroding his political base and risks turning him into a lame duck president before he reaches the midpoint of his second term.
The episode concludes with a discussion of markets and the economy, including Europe's energy vulnerabilities, Marvin's bearish views on gold, and his innovation-cycle framework, which he believes explains why the US dollar remains near all-time highs on a real, effective basis despite widespread predictions of decline.
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If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io.
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Episode Recorded on 04/14/2026

In Episode 475 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with John Burn-Murdoch, columnist and chief data reporter for the Financial Times, about AI's impact on the economy and jobs, the widening ideological divide between young men and women, the global decline in fertility rates, the rising rates of depression and anxiety among 18-34 year olds, and the affordability crisis that is creating some of the most extreme demographic distributions of wealth and opportunity in history.
The first hour covers Burn-Murdoch's path into journalism, the questions that animate his work, and the frameworks he uses to analyze and communicate complex social, economic, and technological trends. The conversation then turns squarely to the subject of artificial intelligence and to the central question animating much of the current discourse: What is AI going to do to the economy and our jobs?
They look at what the data reveals about which jobs are most exposed, what the latest research reveals about the decline in entry-level hiring, and why it matters that this trend predates the arrival of large language models. They also draw on historical analogies — from the ATM to the internal combustion engine to the Internet — to think through how AI is both similar to and different from previous waves of automation, and explore what personal qualities and innate talents are likely to determine who thrives and who struggles in an AI-augmented economy.
The second hour turns to AI's implications for education and journalism before broadening into an exploration of the deeper social and demographic trends that Burn-Murdoch has spent years investigating. They examine the widening ideological divide between young men and young women — what is driving it, what role technology and social media are playing, and what it means for the future of relationships, fertility, and social cohesion — as well as the growing phenomenon of economically and socially disengaged young people, the concurrent rise in mental health diagnoses, and how the affordability crisis is compounding all of these trends, producing some of the most extreme demographic distributions of wealth and opportunity in history.
Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io.
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Episode Recorded on 04/08/2026

In Episode 474 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with commodity economist and energy market analyst Rory Johnston — founder of CommodityContext.com and host of the Oil Ground Up Podcast — about the mechanics and cascading consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure, now entering its second month, and what the two most plausible resolution scenarios mean for energy prices, regional security, and the global economy.
Recorded as part of an ongoing short-form series tracking the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, the episode examines why the full physical impact of the supply disruption is only now reaching end markets across Asia, Europe, and North America, how the oil market is fracturing across both time and space, and why middle distillates — things like diesel and jet fuel — have become the epicenter of the crisis. Rory and Demetri also discuss how importing nations and companies are responding through emergency reserve releases, demand rationing, and accelerated behavioral changes.
The conversation then turns to the long-term structural consequences of the shock — what it means for electrification and alternative energy adoption in Asia, for strategic stockpiling and supply chain resilience, and for non-OPEC production capacity across the US shale patch, Guyana, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. They close by examining the geopolitical dimensions of the crisis, including the role of the Houthis, the risk of a secondary closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the possibility that Trump — having set off an open-ended conflict — may ultimately abandon long-standing US security commitments to the Gulf States, leaving the region in chaos.
Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:
Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io.
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 04/01/2026