Reuters Morning Bid

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s.

Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress intensifies, Mike Dolan

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Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

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Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable."

Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

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Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions.

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy. 

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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