Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, puts some big-name soon-to-IPO artificial-intelligence companies in The Danger Zone this week, saying he has concerns about what they are paying for inputs compared to foreign competitors, and noting that cost disadvantages will multiply and worsen the more A.I. becomes a commodity that everyone uses. He says this is part of every industrial revolution cycle, and often becomes a big determinant in which early players survive and thrive.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses today's launch of single-stock futures by the CME Group, noting that they are more a gamble than an investment and saying he never would have used them for ordinary consumers during his days as a financial planner. Where the herd is moving towards these instruments and being scared out of some A.I. companies based on the market's capital-spending concerns, Marolia says most of those market fears have been overblown, and that a careful long-term investor will find buying opportunities amid the near daily wreckage. Plus, he discusses how high electric bills — jacked up by a heat wave that has caused high usage but also by energy concerns — are the extra cost consumers are not talking about while they are busy complaining about gas prices. 
Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses their latest sentiment survey results, which showed a striking drop in optimism, with bullish sentiment levels dropping by more than 15 percentage points last week as the war in Iran started heating up again. Bullish sentiment was well below its historical averages for the third time in the last four weeks, while bearish sentiment reached levels Rotblut characterized as "unusually high." Bearish sentiment has been above its historical averages for nearly 6 months straight.
Martha Moore discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that confidence in the economy has improved but the caution level remains high. Moore, the chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, noted that for the fifth time in the last six quarters, the number of economists predicting lower forward profits was bigger than those expecting higher earnings, but she also said that more than one third of the economists are expecting higher capital expenditures over the next quarter, spending that will boost the economy in the face of mixed results on profitability.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that while the Iran War got the headlines, trade negotiations will be the story that carries the market forward for the rest of the year, provided there are no policy stumbles. He says the market has calmed down around Fed policy and while midterm elections tend to make for tough markets, there have been strongly positive results after midterms when a unified power structure — the President, Senate and Congress all being on one side of the political aisle — transitions to a divided leadership. Helfstein has plenty of reasons for optimism, noting all of the ways the market and economy have powered through trouble, and says that he expects slower earnings growth but better profitability from the market moving into next year, and he notes that better profitability leads to higher multiples, a healthy economy and higher level for the stock market.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, dug into data from his firm's quarterly outlook presentation to show that while business-development companies faced a lot of headline and interest-rate risk and were beaten up in the market recently, they are poised to rebound sharply in the second half of the year, particularly as the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on what's next for interest rates. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, noted that closed-end funds had a strong quarter b ut that the gains came more from rising prices than from narrowing discounts, a sign that good things could be ahead if market sentiment gets stronger.
Allison Hadley discusses PartnerCentric's 2026 Buy Now, Pay Later survey, which showed that payment programs are a big way that consumers are dealing with higher inflation and lower affordability. The survey showed that use of BNPL programs is up 20% year over year, but the typical buy now, pay later transaction amount has gotten smaller, which Hadley says is a sign that people are increasingly turning to payment programs for ordinary, everyday purchases.

Chris Retzler, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, says that the stock market is benefitting from an artificial-intelligence powered industrial revolution "that we haven't seen the likes of in a very long time," but he says that this will not end the way the Internet bubble did because the players have strong balance sheets and prospects. Retzler thinks there is a strong fundamental story that can lead the market higher from here, and that the small-cap rally that has powered recent gains is a long-term shift that should bring smaller companies back to their traditional role of providing a higher-risk, higher-reward investment option. He worries about the potential impact of inflation and the timing and magnitude of any interest rate hikes, but he says the base case is for current conditions to remain in place and largely unchanged for several months.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes JPMorgan Core Plus Bond his ETF of the Week, noting that the fund has seen strong inflows to match its recent strong performance, citing low fees for active management and a yield of roughly 5% as other key factors to consider.
Plus, Stanford University professor Tina Seelig discusses her book "What I Wish I Knew About Luck: A Crash Course on Turning Aspirations into Achievements," noting the significant difference between having good fortune and true good luck, and how individuals can make their own luck, often through small habits that amount to little more than common courtesy and good manners.

Credit expert Gerri Detweiler discusses a trend where card issuers have been re-assessing risk and reducing the credit limits for consumers — even those with good credit scores — and why those moves are a symptom of the economy and the appetite for risk, rather than a reflection of you and your financial habits. Detweiler — who recently wrote about this issue for CardRates.com — says that limit cuts don't just reduce financing options, but it can impact credit scores and drop them, even if the consumer is not considered high-risk. Consumers get notices about limit cuts, but Detweiler says they are often missed; she discusses the moves consumers can make to avoid, forestall or minimize the issue, and how best to handle the situation.
Carrie Joy Grimes, founder of WorkMoney, discusses her new book, "The Joy of Money: How to Do More With and Feel Better About Your Money - No Matter How Much You Have," and how people confuse the math of money and the number they need to reach, rather than recognizing that it's how they feel about the money, choices and financial security that determine if they feel truly wealthy. She notes that most people struggle to get out of their own way when it comes to finances, blocking their own path to happiness because they are judging it on the scale of neighbors or riches, rather than on the quality of life and the control they have over their choices.
Plus, Chuck talks about his long-time habit of writing down the reasons why he is buying an investment before making a purchase, and what he was thinking when he reviewed some of that paperwork during a recent clean-out of some files. It's a reminder that investments can do their job but that doesn't always make them right when your needs and time horizons change, and then how you decide whether to stay the course or change things up.

Personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor discusses his recent New York Times article "You're About to Retire. What Are You Doing for the Next 20 or 30 Years?" and explores how retirement planning is pivoting from a focus on the numbers to an emphasis on the lifestyle you want, noting that too many people miss out by putting the math first. O'Connor discusses how and why financial planning has changed, noting that previous generations were so focused on taking over responsibility for their retirement savings as pensions were phased out that they didn't consider what retirement meant beyond having no active paycheck.
Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses a survey she did for American Home Shield looking at cost-of-living concerns for homeowners, which found that nearly half are primarily "enjoying their mortgage" this summer, cutting back on travel and socializing to deal with rising costs for gas, groceries and electricity. More than half of the homeowners surveyed worry that inflation is ruining their summer.
Plus, in The Book Interview, Jack Schwager discusses his recent addition to his long-running "Market Wizards" series, discussing "Market Wizards: The Next Generation: The World's Top Young Traders Reveal How They Beat The Market."