The Numbers

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

This episode is available on YouTube.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within sight of the majority government they were denied in the 2025 federal election.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jeneroux’s floor-crossing, the over-turning of the Terrebonne election result and the potential resignation of NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is reportedly eyeing greener (or more orange?) pastures at the provincial level. We also have some new polls to discuss out of British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

You can watch this episode on YouTube.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

You can watch this episode on YouTube.
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Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be the “most boring” because it would be neither extremely high nor problematically low. But now that Poilievre has passed this test, he has to face his next challenge: closing the widening gap in the polls between his Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the aftermath of Poilievre’s leadership review and what the polls are saying about the state of the national race. We also chat about the NDP leadership contest, where Avi Lewis has opened a wide fundraising lead. Plus, we have some new provincial polls out of B.C., Alberta and Quebec.

(Our discussion of the upcoming federal byelections was before the Liberals announced they had nominated Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest.)

Scheduling note: Starting next week, new episodes of The Numbers will be published on Thursdays. Look for the next episode of The Numbers on February 12!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

You can watch this episode on YouTube.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.