Mark Carney’s Liberal government tabled what it called its ‘generational’ budget on Tuesday, promising a mix of spending and cuts and booking a big budget deficit. So far, the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois look set to vote it down. The New Democrats are on the fence.But the drama of budget day was punctuated by the defection of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservatives to the Liberals. He might not be the only one to cross the floor as rumours fly. What does it mean for the fate of the government, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and the potential for a snap election?We had good reason to delay this week’s episode of The Numbers until after the budget so we could break down all the latest drama — because there’s quite a bit of it! We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and some new provincial polling out of Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta, as well as the results of the mayoral elections in Quebec and the territorial vote in Yukon.CORRECTION: In Philippe’s Number of the Week, he said 85% when he meant 75%.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Who should and shouldn't want an election?
There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons. Failing to do so would mean another election. Should Pierre Poilievre welcome a second campaign in 2025, or should he and his Conservatives prefer to put that contest off to another day? And what about the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats?This week on The Numbers, we rate how much each party should want to head back to the polls this fall. We also take a look at a new poll that suggests the B.C. Conservatives are doing far better among voters than is their leader, John Rustad, plus we chat about the end of the fixed election date law in Ontario. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz to mark the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Quebec referendum.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership in trouble?
Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice last week by Dimitri Soudas, a top aide to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Is it a sign that Poilievre’s leadership of the party is more fragile than was previously thought, or are Soudas’s criticisms those of a former Conservative who no longer represents today’s version of the party? And what do the numbers say about the strength of Poilievre’s leadership?This week on The Numbers, we discuss where things stand for Poilievre and the Conservatives. We also take a look at some more polling numbers on the Canada-U.S. relationship (and the Carney-Trump relationship). Plus, we have provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as some mayoral results in Calgary and Edmonton. How did the polls do in these two big cities?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Carney's delicate balancing act with Trump
The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were forced into) an election in the fall.The week on The Numbers, we talk about the federal polling landscape and what it shows about Canadians’ views on our relations with the United States. We also take one last look at the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, as well as what the polls are showing ahead of next week’s mayoral elections in Calgary and Edmonton. Then, we close with a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscriptionThis episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Could a polarized electorate be the new normal?
For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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