Bearish Outlook for S&P 500 as Market Braces for Volatile Friday
## Major Index Performance- **S&P 500**: As of the last update, the S&P 500 is expected to close lower on Friday, December 13, 2024. The index gave back about two-thirds of Wednesday's rally, with the closing candlestick indicating a bearish outlook for Friday[2]. - **Daily Movement**: The S&P 500 is around 6,090.27 as of the previous close, with expectations of a lower close today[3].- **Dow Jones**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 44,642.52 on the previous trading day, with a week's change of -268.13 points. No specific daily movement is provided for today, but it is likely to follow the broader market trend[3].- **NASDAQ**: The NASDAQ Composite closed at 19,859.77, with a week's change of +641.61 points. Similar to the DJIA, no specific daily movement is detailed for today, but it is expected to align with the overall market direction[3].## Key Factors Driving Today's Market Direction- **Inflation Data**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in higher than estimated at 0.4%, which could impact market sentiment and interest rate expectations[2].- **Interest Rate Expectations**: Despite the higher PPI, many investors still anticipate an interest rate reduction next week, which could support the market[2].- **Earnings Reports**: Strong earnings from Costco, Broadcom, and RH reported after hours may provide some support, but overall market sentiment is bearish for the day[2].## Notable Sector Performance- **Top Gainers**: Consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology sectors have been performing well, with gains over 3% in the past week[3].- **Top Decliners**: Energy, utilities, and materials sectors, typically more value-oriented, fell over 3% in the past week[3].## Market Highlights- **Most Actively Traded Stocks**: No specific details provided for today, but stocks like Costco, Broadcom, and RH are in focus due to their earnings reports[2].- **Biggest Percentage Gainers and Losers**: Specific stocks are not detailed, but the overall market is expected to see a bearish close[2].- **Significant Market-Moving News Events**: The higher-than-expected PPI and upcoming interest rate decision are key market-moving events[2].## Technical Analysis- **Current Market Trend**: The overall momentum is bearish, with indicators such as the MACD issuing a down signal and the Ultimate Oscillator falling sharply[2].- **Key Support and Resistance Levels**: - **S&P 500**: Support levels include 6,027.07, and resistance levels are around 6,068.05 (pivot) and higher levels such as 6,100[2][5].- **Trading Volume Analysis**: No specific details on trading volume, but the market is expected to be volatile.- **VIX Movement**: The VIX (Volatility Index) is not explicitly mentioned, but the bearish indicators suggest increased volatility.## Forward-Looking Elements- **Pre-market Futures Indication**: Futures are indicating a lower open, aligning with the bearish outlook for the day[2].- **Key Events to Watch for Tomorrow**: - **Monday**: Wholesale inventories are expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% prior[2]. - **Tuesday**: NFIB optimism index and US Productivity for the 3rd quarter will be released[2].- **Important Upcoming Earnings Releases**: No specific releases mentioned for the immediate future beyond today's focus on Costco, Broadcom, and RH.- **Potential Market Catalysts**: The Fed’s highly anticipated rate cut next week could be a significant market catalyst[2].