On The Margin

In this episode, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Macro Outlook (06:26) Philosophical Vibe Shift (11:51) Financial Nihilism (15:52) Unpacking The Next Administration (19:24) Misaligned Incentives (22:35) Ads (23:59) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (36:51) BSR & The US Dollar (45:42) Crypto Market Outlook (48:40) Crypto Product Market Fit (53:53) Fundamentals Bearish? (55:42) Learn More About Travis’ Work — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:03) Immigration Impact (09:32) 2025 Surprises (12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:07) Peak Hawkishness (21:41) Long-Term Rates (23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:16) Ads (26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics (28:29) The Neutral Rate (30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:11) Reverse Repo (37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance (39:38) Equities & The Dollar (43:15) Gold & Crypto (45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (49:42) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Richard Byworth joins the show to discuss MicroStrategy’s convertible bond strategy, the biggest MicroStrategy misconceptions, and why he thinks the premium to NAV should expand over time. We also delve into MicroStrategy's concept of Bitcoin Yield, the risks and opportunities of Saylor’s strategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Richard Byworth: https://x.com/RichardByworth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Richard Byworth And Convertible Bonds (09:45) MicroStrategy’s Convertible Bond Strategy (15:28) Accretive Dilution & The Value Of A Convertible Bond (21:13) Breaking Down The Convertible Bond Trade (27:07) Ads (28:42) Risks & Opportunities In MicroStrategy’s Strategy (36:55) Bitcoin Yield & Bitcoin Per Share (38:28) Leveraged Upside And Downside (42:47) MicroStrategy Index Inclusion (44:06) Biggest MicroStrategy Misconceptions (49:09) Impact Of Levered MSTR ETFs (51:52) The Changing Market Paradigm — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss the new revolutionary economic regime, how AI is driving the economic singularity, and the younger generation’s changing perception of markets. We also delve into geopolitics, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Raoul Pal: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Join Real Vision and learn more from Raoul here: http://realvision.com/join — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:19) Regime Shift (05:55) Labor Vs Debt (10:53) Setup For The New Conflict (14:19) Rethinking Business Cycles (16:42) No More Cowbell? (19:55) Scott Bessent (23:16) Geopolitics (29:27) Ads (30:43) Inflation Trend (34:15) Finding Treasury Buyers (36:42) Cynicism Vs Optimism (38:28) Macro-Crypto Intersection (45:46) Crypto's Addressable Market (49:52) Changing Perception Of Markets (54:53) The Banana Zone — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.