Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

My guest today is Gavin Baker, founding partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and this is our sixth conversation.

The central theme is watts and wafers, the two physical constraints that in Gavin's view will dictate the next phase of AI.

On power, he thinks the near-term shortage starts to ease in 2027 and 2028 as new sources of energy come online, and that orbital compute solves it in the long term.

On wafers, he explains what is different this time from the dotcom bubble and why TSMC’s capacity decisions may be the single most important variable to watch.

We also discuss Elon’s Terrafab, the disaggregation of GPUs, the role of new chip companies, and whether the economic value of AI will keep accruing to frontier models.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

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Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

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⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

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Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

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WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

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Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

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⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Gavin Baker Intro

(00:03:32) Anthropic's Record ARR Growth

(00:11:49) Should OpenAI and Anthropic Raise at a Much Higher Valuation?

(00:13:23) How Elon Preserves Investor Trust

(00:14:00) Watts & Wafers

(00:15:45) Data Centers in Space Explained

(00:20:51) Orbital Compute’s Impact on Terrestrial Data Centers

(00:26:24) TSMC Supply Discipline & Bubble Risk

(00:30:50) Demand for Frontier Tokens & The Bitter Lesson

(00:35:33) Continual Learning & Memory

(00:40:01) New Chip Companies & Startups

(00:42:49) Prefill vs. Decode Disaggregation

(00:48:40) AI-Native Founders: Different & Hard

(00:51:27) Token Path & Application Layer

(00:56:13) How Gavin Uses AI in Atreides

(01:00:06) Signs of a Diversity Breakdown

(01:05:42) Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft

(01:11:42) Broader Knock-On Effects of AI

My guest today is Krishna Rao, the CFO of Anthropic. The center of our conversation is how he navigates the decision around procuring and allocating compute, which he describes as the canvas on which everything else gets built.

We talk about what he calls the cone of uncertainty, the three chip platforms Anthropic uses fungibly across Trainium, TPUs, and GPUs, and the daily meetings they run to allocate compute between model development, internal use, and serving customer demand.

He explains why the returns to frontier intelligence keep getting higher, especially in enterprise, and how Anthropic thinks about the line between platform and application and why they choose to build their own products like Claude Code.

Krishna has such a unique seat watching one of the fastest growing businesses in history, and he is generous in sharing what he has learned since joining the company two years ago.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Episode Intro: Krishna Rao

(00:03:14) Compute as Anthropic's Lifeblood

(00:05:17) Three Fungible Chip Platforms

(00:07:31) The Cone of Uncertainty

(00:09:08) Competing Ways to Allocate Compute

(00:10:36) What Drives Compute Efficiency

(00:12:38) Why Frontier Returns Are So High

(00:16:32) How Claude Code Writes Its Own Code

(00:18:46) Will Talent Become Obsolete?

(00:20:07) How Scaling Laws Are Holding

(00:21:54) Exponential Thinking

(00:23:17) The Layer Cake of Compute

(00:26:36) How Anthropic Deploys New Compute

(00:27:53) Platform v. Application Layer

(00:32:42) Why Model Pricing Has Stayed Stable

(00:35:26) Measuring Return on Compute

(00:37:22) Working With Chip Providers

(00:38:32) How Anthropic's Finance Team Uses Claude

(00:41:32) The Jevons Paradox for Labor

(00:43:08) Anthropic's Fundraising & Growth Journey

(00:47:31) The Exponential Revenue Curve

(00:49:02) The Hardest Thing to Explain to Investors

(00:52:15) AI's Public Perception Problem

(00:55:38) Mythos

(00:57:31) Relationship With Government

(00:58:51) Inside Anthropic's Culture

(01:03:48) The Next Frontier: Virtual Collaborators

(01:06:22) How Leaders Scale With a Business

(01:10:55) The Biggest Risks to Continued Progress

(01:12:09) What Krishna is Excited About 

(01:13:45) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Brian Chesky, the co-founder and CEO of Airbnb. Our conversation traces the path from his early training as an industrial designer at RISD through the pandemic moment that forced him into founder mode. 

He explains why he thinks AI founder mode will demand even more attention to the details and why founders are rarely good early CEOs.

He walks through his eleven-star exercise, which is a way of imagining the most absurd version of a customer experience to achieve product market fit. 

We also talk about what changed for him when he stopped chasing adulation and started making things for the love of making them. 

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Episode Intro: Brian Chesky

(00:03:07) Studying Industrial Design at RISD

(00:08:30) Why Founders Don't Make Good CEOs

(00:09:02) Founder Mode

(00:12:51) AI Founder Mode

(00:14:41) The End of Pure People Managers

(00:18:42) Consumer AI

(00:21:45) Project Hawaii

(00:25:49) Make the Problem as Small as Possible

(00:29:46) Becoming a Good CEO

(00:32:11) What Brian Learned From Hiroki Asai

(00:36:32) The Eleven-Star Experience

(00:38:48) AI and Creativity

(00:41:44) Making Things for the Love of It

(00:43:36) The Adulation Trap

(00:46:38) The Ham Sandwich Paradox

(00:52:38) Why Founder-Led Businesses Endure

(00:55:14) The Person as the Atomic Unit of Airbnb

(00:59:40) Disrupting Yourself With AI

(01:02:11) Lessons from Bodybuilding

(01:07:55) Hiring as the Most Important Job

(01:09:16) Are Founders Born or Made?

(01:11:04) The Motivation of an Artist

(01:11:47) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones. Paul is the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and one of the greatest macro traders of all time, known for calling and profiting from the 1987 crash and compounding capital at extraordinary rates over more than four decades.

Paul is also one of the most entertaining and interesting people I have ever met. He is full of stories and hard-earned lessons from a lifetime in markets that feels like several lifetimes compressed into one.

In this conversation, he shares how he thinks about trading as a constant battle of risk management and patience, why he still wakes up in the middle of the night to watch global markets, and how he identifies the rare moments where he can take a truly big swing. We discuss whether we are in a bubble, why he sees AI as one of the greatest risks in history, and why he believes Bitcoin is the best inflation hedge.

We also spend time on the difference between trading and investing, the importance of passion and discipline, and the ideas that have shaped his life both inside and outside of markets.

Please enjoy this conversation with Paul Tudor Jones.

This conversation was recorded in mid-February 20, 26 weeks before the geopolitical conflicts now shaping the global economy. Please enjoy this great conversation with Paul Tudor Jones. 

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Episode Intro: Paul Tudor Jones

(00:04:44) Paul’s Incredible Kindest Thing Story

(00:06:50) Discovering a Passion for Philanthropy

(00:13:12) Paul's Commencement Speech Address

(00:15:24) Trading v. Investing

(00:19:23) Lessons from Warren Buffet

(00:23:48) The AI Industry Lacks Proper Risk Management

(00:26:54) The One Regulation AI Needs

(00:28:51) What Paul Learned from Eli Tullis

(00:30:39) Why Trading is Like Boxing

(00:32:16) The Bull Case for the Yen

(00:34:30) Why Bitcoin is the Best Inflation Hedge

(00:36:06) Lessons from Historical Bubbles

(00:38:57) Are We in a Bubble?

(00:42:10) Paul's Daily Routine

(00:44:12) Managing Information Overload

(00:45:35) What Exquisite Execution Means

(00:46:37) Paul’s Love of Games

(00:48:13) The Secret to Longevity

(00:50:51) Starting Robin Hood After the 1987 Crash

(00:55:33) The Importance of Studying Journalism

(00:57:12) Communicating Effectively in Today's World

(00:59:13) The Four Components of a Great Life

(01:01:10) Paul’s Relationship with God and Nature

(01:03:53) Kill ‘Em With Kindness

This is my second conversation with Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis, where he tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout.

This conversation is about the supply and demand of tokens. On demand, Dylan describes something completely explosive. He explains why the frontier model is the only model anyone wants, and willingness to pay for it is nearly unbounded. His own firm has gone from tens of thousands of dollars in AI spend last year to seven million this year.

On supply, we walk through the bottlenecks across memory, logic, and fab equipment that will determine how fast any of this can scale.

We also cover Claude Mythos and what the leading labs need to do to fix their growing public perception problem.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. 

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠. 

-----

WorkOS is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Intro: Dylan Patel

(00:03:09) Semi Analysis AI Spend: Zero to $7M

(00:05:16) Real-World Examples of Claude Code

(00:11:41) Token Demand: “Completely Explosive”

(00:14:48) Why Everyone Wants the Frontier Model

(00:15:36) Mythos: Biggest Model Capability Jump in Two Years

(00:20:54) Fear of Rapid Model Progress

(00:23:45) Robotics as the Next Demand Wave

(00:26:03) Scaling Laws & Compute Efficiency

(00:27:24) OpenAI vs. Anthropic

(00:31:33) Supply Side: Bottlenecks Across the Stack

(00:33:26) TSMC CapEx Could Cause a Shortage

(00:36:45) CPUs, ASICs, and FPGAs

(00:40:12) Tokenomics

(00:42:20) Protests & AI Backlash