Bloomberg Businessweek

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
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President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.
For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.
In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.
The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery is closed. Qatar has shuttered the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas facility. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed. Oil and gas prices have already rocketed higher. Stocks have taken a hit. Treasury yields have risen as traders curb bets on Fed cuts.
In a severe scenario, Bloomberg Economics assumes that with Trump warning of a “big wave” of attacks, Israel aiming at the fall of the Islamic Republic and Tehran betting it can outlast its adversaries, the fighting grinds on. Intensified Iranian strikes set refineries and ports ablaze or knock out pipelines, bringing energy production to a halt.
Today's show features:
Jennifer Welsh, Bloomberg Economic Chief Geoeconomics Analyst, on Iran War Oil Shock Threatened to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation
Jeff Mason, Bloomberg News White House Correspondent on Trump Replacing Kristi Noem as Homeland Chief After Rocky Tenure
Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent for Private Capital Davide Scigliuzzo on latest developments in private credit
Drive to the Close with David Busch, CEO and CIO of Trajan Wealth
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A few weeks ago, traders on the two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, were furiously debating whether Cardi B’s dancing onstage at the Super Bowl constituted a “performance.” Now the sites’ traders—and some outside observers—are up in arms over the markets that allowed users to bet on Iran’s future. Another day, another moral, legal and philosophical minefield for these businesses.
Chris Beam, Bloomberg Businessweek Contributor writes how the Iran-related controversies generated by Kalshi and Polymarket say a lot about how the two companies are positioning themselves in the sector, as well as in the debates over what role prediction markets should play in our society. Chris speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily.
Sebastian Escobar
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Traders were on Wednesday awaiting further details of President Donald Trump’s plan to guarantee the free flow of energy shipments through the Persian Gulf, as the shipping industry warned the proposal may struggle to restore confidence after attacks effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.
The disruption threatens to sever seaborne energy trade between some of the world’s largest producers and key consuming nations, heightening risks for global markets. Brent crude was little changed after jumping more than 10% this week, while European gas prices slipped following the biggest rally in four years.
Trump said Tuesday the US would offer insurance backstops and naval escorts for commercial vessels transiting the region, seeking to reassure markets rattled by a spiraling conflict involving Iran. Multiple attacks on vessels in recent days have choked off traffic through the narrow waterway.
The world’s largest shipping industry association said it was seeking clarification on how the US-led convoy system would operate, warning that protecting every tanker in the region would be “unrealistic.” Officials at two major commodity trading houses said they doubted the measures would materially reduce the danger of attack, even with military escorts in place.
“Nothing is sure and we need immediate clarity,” said Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, a Thai firm that owns bulk carriers. “Lives are at risk, cargoes are at risk, ships are at risk. We need immediate cover that protects us from all this,” he said.
Today's show features:
Bloomberg News National Security Team Leader Nick Wadhams on whether Iran is seeking an onramp to the ongoing war
Steve Moore, Co-Founder of Unleash Prosperity and a former Trump Economic Advisor, on the US economic and monetary policy outlook
Bloomberg News Consumer Tech Reporter Samantha Kelly on Apple’s latest product launch event and new low-priced laptop
Bloomberg News Economic Editor Molly Smith with instant reaction to the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book release
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MongoDB shares tumbled 22% Tuesday after the database software company gave weaker-than-expected forecasts for full-year revenue and first-quarter adjusted earnings. The figures are reviving concern about expansion amid an intensifying product race and signaling rising competitive intensity and slower expansion of customer wallets, according to research from Bloomberg Intelligence. MongoDB's 2027 revenue guidance implies a roughly 600-bp deceleration vs. 2026, while the operating-income view trails consensus.

Chirantan “CJ” Desai is the President and Chief Executive Officer of MongoDB, a position he assumed in November. He discusses the company’s latest earnings report and the impact of artificial intelligence as he looks to allay investor fears following the stock price's biggest drop since last March. CJ speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily.
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
A selloff in stocks and bonds was trimmed as assurances on American action to secure shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war pared what had been an over 9% surge in oil.
Following an earlier slide in the S&P 500 that reached 2.5%, the equity benchmark dropped less than 1%. President Donald Trump said the US will escort and insure tankers and other vessels through the world’s most-critical energy chokepoint. Oil prices waned in post-settlement trading, with Brent trading near $80 a barrel.
The war in the Middle East reverberated across the region, with Israel bombarding Tehran in a fresh wave of strikes. The Islamic Republic fired missiles at Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, with Doha saying targets weren’t limited to military interests. Qatar and Iraq halted production at major energy sites.
With the conflict disrupting shipments, fuel costs have been on the rise. A sustained surge in prices for diesel — used in freight, power and heating — could add to the cost of transportation — a key inflation component. Gasoline has also surged, intensifying those risks.
Today's show features:
Connor Teskey, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, on the company’s expansion in infrastructure and transition investing
Lynn Martin, President of the New York Stock Exchange, on the IPO pipeline, issuer readiness, and broader market valuation
John Rogers, Founder and CEO of Ariel Investments, on value investing strategies and the debate over US exceptionalism vs. market concentration risk
Alex Rodriguez, Chairman & CEO of A-Rod Corp, on sports as an institutional asset and rising valuations, as well as the latest season of The Deal
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