On The Market

The 2026 recession is here. You feel it. I feel it. GDP is growing, but the cost of living is rising, affordability is at a multi-decade low, and consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in 70 years. The stock market is ripping, but Americans are struggling daily. Economists will tell you it’s not a recession (at least not yet), but according to my recession indicator…we’re there. 

Last November, I created a new recession indicator. It wasn’t tied to GDP, asset values, or sentiment. It was tied to the average American struggling to get by. As of last week, this recession indicator threw up a strong yellow flag, signaling that we’ve reached a turning point—and the direction we’re going isn’t giving us much hope.

This will affect the housing market and rent prices for real estate investors. I give my full forecast on how this could affect the market, but also share exactly what I’m doing right now to put myself in the best position to weather the storm and, hopefully, pick up discounted deals as they come along. 

Well-situated investors can survive this, but those that are already running their portfolios with little wiggle room might be in for a big surprise. 

In This Episode We Cover

The recession indicator that got triggered just last week (and what it means for the economy)

My new definition of “recession” and why we must rethink what a “recession” even is

How this new recession could hurt the housing market and investors

What I’m doing right now to prepare for the recession and put my portfolio in a strong position

A concerning data point about the affordability of average Americans (this includes renters)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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Just when we thought it was handled, inflation is starting to surge back—and mortgage rates are already adjusting fast. But, for real estate investors, there’s a silver lining. Some markets are seeing rising rents and lower home prices, making it an ideal buying scenario for investors if they can hang on to the property during these high-rate times.

It’s been a wild week in the housing market, and we’re unpacking everything in this headline episode. 

First, we’ll talk about the new inflation numbers. You probably already know they’re not great, but could they force the Fed to resume raising rates? We have a…lively…discussion about it. Next, investors lose millions of dollars in the newest real estate “scam” run by a trusted community member. This isn’t something new, so we’re sharing the exact steps you should take before ever wiring someone money for a real estate deal.

Big buyers gain ground on a new housing bill as an amended version drops language many investors had considered a lock. Finally, we’re going over the cities with the fastest rising (and falling) rent prices in 2026—and which markets are seeing the perfect storm of rising rents and declining home prices. 

In This Episode We Cover

Inflation surges, but what effect will it have on mortgage rates?

The cities that saw the highest rent increases in 2026 (and where rents are falling)

The newest passive investing “scam” that’s costing real estate investors millions

Big buyers aren’t getting banned? A new update to the latest housing bill

The argument for the Fed reversing course and raising rates once again

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

James' BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 399 - Buying (and Building) Houses Could Get a LOT Easier (New Bill)

TheRealDeal: House knocks build-to-rent provision from amended Senate bill

AP News: Ex-Brooklyn judge accused of swindling real estate investors out of millions of dollars

SmartAsset: Where Rent Increased and Decreased Most – 2026 Study

Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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New 2026 housing market forecasts have changed…dramatically. A major downgrade for home sales from NAR, a home price forecast revision from Zillow, and a new mortgage rate range from Fannie Mae. The industry is quickly growing much more anxious.

At the start of the year, the consensus was for modest price growth, lower mortgage rates, and improved home sale numbers—that’s not where we’re at right now. Between inflation fears resurfacing, interest rates climbing again, and major geopolitical earthquakes, just months into the year, real estate forecasters are changing course.

Today, we’re going through all the top forecasts for home prices, mortgage rates, and home sales from Fannie Mae, JP Morgan, NAR, and Zillow. 

But what about Dave’s 2026 forecast? How has it held up through wars, oil price spikes, and a changing Federal Reserve? Dave reviews his exact 2026 housing market forecast and whether he would change it now.

In This Episode We Cover

Updated home sales, home price, and mortgage rate predictions from major players in real estate

Zillow’s latest home price downgrade and why we’re inching toward falling home values

NAR slashes their home sales forecast significantly, but what do they say it’ll do to prices?

Housing crash consensus? What major forecasters and economists are saying about the chances

Reviewing Dave’s 2026 housing market forecast and whether he’s changing it in this new economic climate

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders 

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 408 - Melody Wright's Honest Take On the “Worse Than 2008” Claim

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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One type of investment property is experiencing severe undersupply with a 20-year demographic tailwind on the way. Demand is growing, new supply isn’t even hitting a quarter of the need, and investors are writing off much of this industry as already past its peak. Is this a strategic opportunity to invest in an asset so obvious it’s been overlooked? 

Of course, we’re talking about senior living investments. 

Jerry Vinci, founder of CCR Growth, growth partners in senior housing, saw firsthand why investing in senior living is so crucial. Jerry watched all four of his grandparents move into senior living and witnessed the chaos, stress, and struggle of navigating such a crucial time in their lives. 

Now, Jerry works to help underwrite and optimize senior living facilities, and as an industry insider, he’s seeing a change.

Demand is growing…fast. Even the youngest boomers are turning 65 in 2030, and the pipeline of 80+ year olds needing housing is starting to reach a bottleneck. Today, we’re talking about the wave of demand coming (and expected to sustain for two more decades), how investors can get started if they have no experience, the questions to ask before investing in a senior living facility, and why in senior living your market is more crucial than traditional real estate investing. 

In This Episode We Cover

The “20-year cycle” that could funnel millions more Baby Boomers into senior housing

Who should be investing in small senior housing properties (5-10 residents)

The different types of senior living investments (from independent living to memory care and more)

Ask these questions to any operator you may be investing with

The massive supply bottleneck that cannot keep pace with senior living demand

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Investing in Senior Housing Can Be Extremely Profitable—But You Need To Know What You’re Doing

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

CCR Growth 

Nordon Advisory

Real Estate by the Numbers

 

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-424.

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The national debt just hit a dangerous new milestone, surpassing GDP—and the last time this happened, we just ended a world war. You already know the U.S. is heavily in debt—most Americans do—but nobody is asking the right question: at what point does this spiral out of control and force something in the economy to break? 

Today, Dave is unpacking the next steps and the scenarios that could unfold once our debt reaches a point where our options to solve this become dangerous. And the effects could be massive for real estate investors, unless they begin preparing themselves now.

First, we’ll go over how we even got here, what makes up the majority of our national debt, and what we can cut to end this out-of-control spending. Next, the two scenarios, one of which could put real estate investors in a dangerous position. Dave is preparing, starting now, even if the worst effects don’t hit for years. 

With no sign of either political party meaningfully lowering the debt, this isn’t a matter of “if” real estate is affected, but when. 

In This Episode We Cover

The dangerous new milestone our national debt has just hit (can we reverse course?)

What real estate investors need to start doing now to protect their future selves

Why mortgage rates could “spiral” up as the U.S. looks for a solution to pay off debt 

Who’s to blame? Which administrations caused the debt to grow

Where 75% of our tax revenue is going (why the debt keeps rising)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn’t as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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