Global Research Unlocked

• Yellow gold faces flashing amber; black gold eventually sees green

  Electrification requires copper but supply picture is dim The outlook for oil prices is bearish in the near term owing to excess supply, but beyond that, prices should firm as supply growth slows. Between geopolitics, economic growth and the dollar, there are plausible scenarios for both higher and lower oil, which Francisco discusses in some detail. And while Francisco and the commodity strategy team came into 2025 bullish on gold prices, they're less constructive following the substantial rally and suggest that copper may be more interesting at the moment, particularly with the metal's exposure to growth in electrification and continued supply challenges, which got more acute in the last few weeks. Francisco also addresses aluminum, which can be looked at as power in solid form, making it interesting in a time of persistent growth in power demand.    You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• APAC markets; AI not yet boosting profits today, helps structural case tomorrow

  Takeaways from our inaugural APAC Conference BofA Global Research hosted its inaugural APAC Conference earlier this month. Timing was opportune. The Chinese CSI 300 Equity Index has outperformed the S&P year-to-date, following years in which the opposite was true and that's helped to pique investor interest. Over 1,200 investors and 300 corporates attended. Winnie Wu joins us to discuss her takeaways from the conference and her views on markets. Winnie believes Chinese equities will remain relatively more attractive in the EM context given the lower valuation and better growth potential for China. She adds China and Korea in particular are very well positioned to leverage AI to help offset their demographic challenges and can potentially achieve higher than expected long-term GDP growth thanks to AI-driven efficiency.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• Stablecoins progressing but at the speed of a mailed-in check

  Stablecoin progress to come with time and reg. clarity Ebrahim Poonawala has been busy exploring the topic of stablecoins and the impact on banks. He's hosted expert events, started a series of notes on the topic and has communicated with bank CEOs on developments and potential bank offerings. Ebrahim joins the podcast to talk about regulatory progress but the hurdles that remain before consumers and businesses can start using stablecoins just as they use deposit accounts. He also discusses how, for most consumers, there are inadequate incentives to switch from traditional credit cards to stablecoins for payments. He addresses the economics of stablecoin issuers, which are highly dependent on the level of interest rates, and how, if traditional banks were to issue a consortium led stablecoin solution, it could drive network effects and adoption. We also tackle the related topic of tokenized assets and the advantages they can provide. Stablecoins also come with risks, one of several reasons that adoption could progress more slowly than some expect.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• Managed care suffering but eventual recovery likely

  Still managing to add value for patients and payor While US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by managed care, from commercial to Medicare Advantage to Medicaid and how profitability challenges are likely to last longer for some of these markets than for others. But he also addresses how managed care adds value to each of these settings, delivering care more effectively and cheaply than the alternatives. He notes that vertical integration is still part of the strategy at some managed care companies, and something that can still help to better align incentives, but that it's been overshadowed by challenges faced elsewhere in the business. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

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• Yields should fall with a more dovish Fed but other levers needed to boost housing

  10Y yields should fall if Fed more dovish than expected Leading up to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has priced in a high likelihood of a 25bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. The prospect of rate cuts has helped to lift homebuilding stocks and the group is up 16% since the end of June. But the 10Y Treasury yield is more relevant for homebuyers taking out fixed-rate or even adjustable-rate mortgages. So a key question is how Fed cuts, which should come--it's just a question of when--may impact long rates. And if rate cuts do result in lower 10Y Treasury yields, what does it mean for affordability. Mark Cabana believes that a very dovish Fed, even amidst a backdrop of higher than desired inflation, could still manage to push long rates lower. Rafe Jadrosich talks about affordability and regional housing dynamics, given that supply is above 2019 levels in Florida and Texas but well below levels from six years ago in the Northeast and Midwest.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

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