The Politics Guys

Mike is joined by fellow political scientists Michael Levy and Justin Holmes to break down what the latest primaries say about the Democratic and Republican parties, whether the Iran war is exposing serious limits in U.S. military readiness, and what AOC means when she says “Woke 1 was crazy.”

They start with Florida, where Trump-backed Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination and former Republican David Jolly became the Democratic nominee. The guys look at Florida’s dramatic shift toward the GOP, Democrats’ struggle to build competitive state parties, and the growing number of Democratic Socialist candidates poised to enter Congress. Then it’s Alaska, where Mary Peltola’s strong showing against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan suggests one of Democrats’ better Senate pickup opportunities.

Next, they turn to the war with Iran and reports of mounting strain aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. Is this simply the inevitable cost of a long deployment—or evidence that the Trump administration badly underestimated the logistics of an extended war? They also consider what pulling naval assets from the Pacific could mean for U.S. deterrence against China.

Finally, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says “Woke 1 was crazy.” Is that a substantive rethink of progressive politics, a shift in rhetoric, or simply recognition that some of the left’s post-2020 language became politically toxic? Mike, Michael, and Justin debate whether progressive politics has primarily a messaging problem—or a policy problem too.

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The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this midweek supporters-exclusive episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (subbing for Mike Baranowski) is joined once again by political scientist Michael Levy to go down a pair of deep policy and academic "rabbit holes" that they couldn't fit into the main weekend show.

The guys start by analyzing German energy giant RWE’s $1.22 billion settlement with the Department of the Interior to abandon three offshore wind projects off the coasts of California, New York, and Louisiana. Trey shares research on an economic deep dive, explaining why onshore wind is cheap and competitive with natural gas, even unsubsidized, while offshore wind suffers massive upfront capital costs and low returns. The hosts then debate whether the administrations’ buyouts represent a pivot away from expensive energy or a lawless executive intervention that distorts the market.

Next, they discuss the resignation of Jason Arday, who after capturing headlines in 2023 as the youngest Black professor in the history of the University of Cambridge, likely engaged in unethical practices. The guys examine the substantive allegations against Arday, including over 100 passages in his 2015 doctoral thesis, and his false book publications on his CV. The pair also discuss the institutional reluctance to investigate high-profile scholars and how such high-profile misconduct is weaponized by bad-faith actors against other Black academics. 

They finish with rants and recommendations. Michael’s rant takes aim at President Trump’s obsession with putting his name on public institutions and offers a hilariously satirical slate of official Trump legacy projects. Trey pushes back on lukewarm critical reviews to recommend the newest season of Ted Lasso. Trey praises the show for proving that prestige television doesn’t have to all be dark and bleak.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

On this week’s episode of The Politics Guys, Trey Orndorff (subbing for Mike) is joined by political scientist Michael Levy for their first show together. 

They begin with Michael breaking down the August 11 primaries. This includes discussing David Crowley’s narrow victory over Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin, along with races in Minnesota and South Carolina. The pair discuss why polls missed by wide margins, and Trey discusses the difficulty of modeling primary elections and new tech challenges, including automatic call-screening available on smartphones.

Next, the pair move to Executive Order 14407, or the “Gold Standard” of childhood vaccines. Trey and Michael highlight the order’s mandate to split the combined Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine into three separate single-disease shots administered across three visits. Trey points out that such shots do not currently exist, rendering the directive unworkable in the short term. The duo also discuss the public-facing crisis that public health officials now face.

They close the show with a look at the one-year anniversary of the federalization of D.C.’s Police and the deployment of National Guard troops to the district. The hosts discuss both the confirmation that troops will remain in D.C. through Inauguration Day 2029 and the cost of it at approximately 3 million dollars per day. They finish by discussing the effects of normalizing domestic military policing.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

Mike talks with political scientists Kirby and Spencer Goidel about their new book, The Trump Realignment, and their argument that Donald Trump didn’t simply take over the Republican Party—he fundamentally changed the American party system. They discuss how Trump exploited divisions over trade, immigration, education, and distrust of elites; why the GOP’s transformation began well before 2016; the growing political divide between college and non-college voters; Democrats’ struggle to reconnect with the working class; higher education’s collapse in Republican trust; Silicon Valley’s shifting political alliances; and why Trumpism may prove far more durable than Trump himself. They close with what the coming fight over both parties could mean for 2028 and beyond.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.

This bonus midweek episode begins with the Democratic National Committee’s precarious finances: the DNC is spending heavily on state parties, organizers, and long-term infrastructure while the Republican National Committee sits on a formidable cash advantage heading into the 2026 midterms. Mike and Jay debate whether DNC Chair Ken Martin is making a disciplined investment—or leaving Democrats dangerously exposed. Then they examine the Democratic Socialists of America’s increasingly prominent agenda, including abolishing the Senate, replacing the presidency and Supreme Court, open borders, dismantling ICE, sharply reducing the Pentagon, prison abolition, and public ownership of major corporations. Are these serious answers to genuine problems, reckless shortcuts around constitutional constraints, or both? The discussion ends with a larger argument about populism, political guardrails, and whether American democracy now gives popular passions too direct a path to power.

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Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.

The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.