In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a fire at Valero Port Arthur's diesel hydrotreater — the team cuts through the noise and lands on a clear conclusion: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the physical product market isn't buying it. They walk through the recovery timeline if Hormuz reopens, explain why the real trade is in deferred cracks and time spreads, and set out exactly what traders should be watching next.
Chapters:
(00:53) Iran, Trump and the 48-hour ultimatum
Neil walks through the weekend's escalation — Trump's threat to bomb Iranian power plants, Iran's counter-escalation, and how fears over GCC desalination infrastructure brought the region to the edge.
(04:33) The pre-announcement anomaly
Five minutes before Trump's post, oil, bonds and equities all moved in the same direction. Felipe breaks down the unusual volume spike and why it's creating a growing mistrust in market integrity.
(07:45) Tuesday: Iran retaliates and Valero Port Arthur catches fire
June covers the morning's events — drone attacks intercepted over Saudi Arabia, power outages in Kuwait, sirens in Bahrain, and an unplanned explosion at the diesel hydrotreater of one of the US's top 10 refineries.
(09:48) Three scenarios: de-escalation, price suppression or chaos?
The team stress-tests what Monday's announcement actually means. Neil's base case: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the product supply crunch hasn't gone anywhere.
(20:15) If Hormuz opens tonight, we're already in June
Neil and June walk through every link in the recovery chain — vessel ballasting, oil field restarts, AG refinery force majeures, port congestion, Asian restocking. The maths lands on three to six months before anything normalises.
(29:16) The trade: time spreads and cracks, not flat price
Flat price is being capped. Everything else isn't. Felipe and Neil make the case for rolling backwardation and deferred cracks as the cleaner, lower-noise trade while headlines keep crude choppy.