Trade with Conviction

The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.

Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.

Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.

Chapters: 

(00:43) Ceasefire reality check

Neil sets the scene: day two of the ceasefire, sea mines in the Strait, IRGC threats to shipping, and why a tollbooth system under Iranian control is likely the only short-term path to restoring flows.

(05:02) Saudi infrastructure under fire

Phil flags attacks on the East-West pipeline and unconfirmed reports near Abqaiq, raising questions about whether rerouted Saudi crude is really safe even during a ceasefire.

(06:56) Demand destruction: price-led vs policy-led

The team maps out a two-tier system where Asia faces price-driven run cuts while Europe may need policy intervention to bring consumption down without crushing the economy.

(08:36) US oil stocks: building when they should be drawing

Neil and Phil unpack why US commercial stocks are still building despite record export economics, and what SPR releases and April WTI loadings could change.

(12:09) Light ends: paper sell-off, physical strength

Jorge breaks down the $5/bbl gasoline and $40/mt naphtha corrections on East-West, why physical premiums are at record levels across all regions, and where the ARB opportunities sit.

(17:38) Crude physicals: diffs still climbing

Phil covers North Sea DFLs holding firm, West African diffs hitting new records, Aramco OSPs for May, and why Mars and Arab Light are landing at similar levels into the Far East.

(20:00) Margins and the global run cut question

The team discusses why refining margins in both Asia and Europe are under pressure, Japan's utilisation dropping into the 60% range, and how the marginal barrel economics are starting to force the run cuts the market needs.

(22:47) Distillates: risk-off noise vs physical reality

Phil walks through the $15/bbl crack correction on ceasefire headlines, why diesel East-West barely moved versus jet, and why the strongest incentive remains moving diesel to Asia as fast as possible.

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge right now.

Chapters
(00:17) Geopolitics: The Hormuz Standoff

Felipe and Phil debate whether anything has really changed, Trump's contradictory messaging to markets, Israel, GCC and Iran simultaneously, the UAE's UN letter invoking Article 7 to reopen Hormuz, and why the how of ending this conflict matters far more than the when.

(10:12) Supply Reality Check: 10mb/d Gone, Plan Bs Burning Fast

Phil runs the brutal arithmetic: 10mb/d lost, SPRs and demand destruction covering maybe 3-4mb/d at best. James walks through Asian governments scrambling — Japan and South Korea tapping SPRs, Southeast Asia mandating work-from-home, Australia tweaking diesel specs. The oil-on-water buffer is largely gone.

(20:25) Gasoline: Choppy, Not the Story

Felipe explains why gasoline is a slow burner right now — the US Jones Act waiver and RVP spec change making America self-sufficient, Dangote running full in West Africa, and European ARBs too choppy to capture. Phil flags the TA ARB turning positive and makes the case for a May E-Bob crack. The real call: June or Q3.

(29:22) Diesel & Jet: A Market in Meltdown

James unpacks the numbers that stopped the room. Singapore diesel spreads doubling from $25 to $70/bbl overnight, gasoil East-West exploding from $100 to $400/tonne in days. Every conventional resupply route into Europe is closed. Ryanair is already flagging flight cancellations. The only fix is demand destruction, and we're not there yet.

(40:18) Freight: Good Time to Be a Ship Owner

Phil closes with the Atlantic freight picture, Gulf Coast supply lists tightening without a corresponding export surge, TC2 finally joining the rally, and why vessel owners are the quiet winners of the crisis.

Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle East escalation. Russian supply under threat. West-East flows rising.

Chapters: 

(00:37) Headlines: Middle East escalation & price volatility
The team breaks down rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, Hormuz risks, and why positioning in crude is becoming increasingly difficult.

(05:30) Russian flows under pressure: Ukraine strikes & supply risk
Attacks on key Russian export infrastructure and tankers raise major supply concerns, yet price reaction remains muted.

(08:21) Market disconnect: crude strength vs product sell-off
A sharp collapse in gasoline and diesel cracks despite tightening fundamentals raises questions about risk-off sentiment vs physical reality.

(12:03) Gasoline: Europe feeds the East
Europe emerges as the key supplier to deficit regions, with shifting ARBs and tightening inventories reshaping flows.

(20:40) Diesel: shortages emerging & flows shifting
US to Asia diesel arb opens, jet weakness flips regrades, and supply stress begins to show in key regions.

(24:06) Crude flows: WTI dominates & Asia struggles
WTI becomes the marginal barrel globally, while Asia faces challenges securing West-of-Suez crude.

In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a fire at Valero Port Arthur's diesel hydrotreater — the team cuts through the noise and lands on a clear conclusion: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the physical product market isn't buying it. They walk through the recovery timeline if Hormuz reopens, explain why the real trade is in deferred cracks and time spreads, and set out exactly what traders should be watching next.

Chapters: 

(00:53) Iran, Trump and the 48-hour ultimatum

Neil walks through the weekend's escalation — Trump's threat to bomb Iranian power plants, Iran's counter-escalation, and how fears over GCC desalination infrastructure brought the region to the edge.

(04:33) The pre-announcement anomaly

Five minutes before Trump's post, oil, bonds and equities all moved in the same direction. Felipe breaks down the unusual volume spike and why it's creating a growing mistrust in market integrity.

(07:45) Tuesday: Iran retaliates and Valero Port Arthur catches fire

June covers the morning's events — drone attacks intercepted over Saudi Arabia, power outages in Kuwait, sirens in Bahrain, and an unplanned explosion at the diesel hydrotreater of one of the US's top 10 refineries.

(09:48) Three scenarios: de-escalation, price suppression or chaos?

The team stress-tests what Monday's announcement actually means. Neil's base case: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the product supply crunch hasn't gone anywhere.

(20:15) If Hormuz opens tonight, we're already in June

Neil and June walk through every link in the recovery chain — vessel ballasting, oil field restarts, AG refinery force majeures, port congestion, Asian restocking. The maths lands on three to six months before anything normalises.

(29:16) The trade: time spreads and cracks, not flat price

Flat price is being capped. Everything else isn't. Felipe and Neil make the case for rolling backwardation and deferred cracks as the cleaner, lower-noise trade while headlines keep crude choppy.

The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil.

Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 discount to Brent as export ban fears gripped the market. TC14 and TC15 have more than doubled since the conflict started. Jet fuel in Europe hit $1,700–$1,800 a tonne, and SAS has already started cancelling routes.

Chapters: 

(01:00) Headlines: South Pars, Ras Laffan and the escalation spiral Neil sets the scene. Israel hits South Pars, Iran strikes Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries, flat price breaks $115, and Trump tries to rein things in — without much conviction.

(03:09) Jones Act and the export ban trade

A 60-day waiver on all products lands. The team debates why WTI-Brent blew out to minus $20 anyway — and whether a crude or product export ban is next.

(14:50) Gasoline: East-West at historical highs

Jorge walks through the TAR collapse, FizzWest hitting new records, and arbs opening into Australia and Indonesia — a signal that East-West may finally be approaching its limit.

(22:53) Naphtha: South Pars condensate and demand destruction

 

The South Pars strike hits naphtha directly through condensate supply. Jorge covers Russian naphtha picking up, Asian steam cracker rationalisations, and where demand destruction shows up first.

(29:00) Distillates and jet: Europe is drawing down fast

Phil covers Gulf Coast arb economics, the Hogo under political pressure, and why jet at $1,700–$1,800/tonne is already forcing SAS to cancel intra-European routes.

(35:34) Crude: WTI at minus $20 and Yambu stops loading

Neil unpacks why WTI is now the cheapest crude in the world, fixtures heading to Asia, and — breaking live on the episode — Reuters confirms Yambu has halted oil loading.