In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge right now.
Chapters
(00:17) Geopolitics: The Hormuz Standoff
Felipe and Phil debate whether anything has really changed, Trump's contradictory messaging to markets, Israel, GCC and Iran simultaneously, the UAE's UN letter invoking Article 7 to reopen Hormuz, and why the how of ending this conflict matters far more than the when.
(10:12) Supply Reality Check: 10mb/d Gone, Plan Bs Burning Fast
Phil runs the brutal arithmetic: 10mb/d lost, SPRs and demand destruction covering maybe 3-4mb/d at best. James walks through Asian governments scrambling — Japan and South Korea tapping SPRs, Southeast Asia mandating work-from-home, Australia tweaking diesel specs. The oil-on-water buffer is largely gone.
(20:25) Gasoline: Choppy, Not the Story
Felipe explains why gasoline is a slow burner right now — the US Jones Act waiver and RVP spec change making America self-sufficient, Dangote running full in West Africa, and European ARBs too choppy to capture. Phil flags the TA ARB turning positive and makes the case for a May E-Bob crack. The real call: June or Q3.
(29:22) Diesel & Jet: A Market in Meltdown
James unpacks the numbers that stopped the room. Singapore diesel spreads doubling from $25 to $70/bbl overnight, gasoil East-West exploding from $100 to $400/tonne in days. Every conventional resupply route into Europe is closed. Ryanair is already flagging flight cancellations. The only fix is demand destruction, and we're not there yet.
(40:18) Freight: Good Time to Be a Ship Owner
Phil closes with the Atlantic freight picture, Gulf Coast supply lists tightening without a corresponding export surge, TC2 finally joining the rally, and why vessel owners are the quiet winners of the crisis.