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Interconnects

Nathan Lambert
Interconnects
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  • OpenAI's o3: Over-optimization is back and weirder than ever
    https://www.interconnects.ai/p/openais-o3-over-optimization-is-backOver-optimization is a classic problem to reinforcement learning (RL) proper, the RL from human feedback (RLHF) that gave us ChatGPT, and now what we’re seeing with new reasoning models. All of these have a distinct flavor and different impacts.Over-optimization is what happens when the optimizer is stronger than the environment or reward function it’s using to learn. The optimizer finds bugs or lapses in the context of its training and produces unusual or negative results.One of my first pieces of work that got substantial engagement online was from when we used hyperparameter optimization with model-based RL to over-optimize the traditional Mujoco simulation environments used for evaluation of deep RL algorithms. The result was a cartwheeling half-cheetah maximizing its forward velocity, where it was supposed to learn to run. The video is below.Over-optimization in classical RL made it so that we couldn’t trust the agents to generalize to new tasks and applied great pressure on reward design.Over-optimization in RLHF made the models completely lobotomized — I mean, repeating random tokens and gibberish, not the misdesign that results in over-refusal — the signal we were overcooking is mismatched from the objective we want. While we can’t know the true objective exactly, we can know when over-optimization occurs.OpenAI’s new o3 model represents an entirely new type of inference behavior that mirrors a new type of over-optimization.o3 is an interesting model because of on top of the new improved text-only capabilities, which results in super strong benchmark scores, it also has been designed for multi-step tool use to be used on any query where it’s relevant. It makes OpenAI’s product headaches in ChatGPT way worse — the model will search on its own even if I don’t trigger the search toggle — but comes with a new era in how language models are used.For example, in the process of writing this, I simply asked o3: “Can you find me the gif of a motor boat overoptimizing a game that was used by RL researchers for a long time? Maybe like wave crashers or something?” [link]. A few weeks ago, it took me at least 15 minutes to find this manually. o3 got the exact direct download link for me.As a counterpoint, Gemini 2.5 Pro in the Advanced UX hallucinated for me a wild link https://giphy.com/explore/you-play-the-motorboat. AI studio was better with search grounding, it got the game right, CoastRunners, but also yapped a lot of nonsense with it.o3’s answer in full was:Here’s the clip you’re thinking of—​it comes from the Flash‑based racing game Coast Runners and is the canonical “reward‑hacked motor‑boat” example in RL papers and talks:* Direct GIF (DeepMind mirror)https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/9gQpeRvwj1xQo9MVZwUdmautOd04wR8gXRi1wvlVZRrVXb5isOZRdjJ2t1_JShiYZcYB--iIMtl9g4Lbk6oxQzHgw-QQ6VoIWVZ4V3au7RgKli6X (save / open in browser to view)* DeepMind blog post (“Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity”, 2020) – scroll to the section that starts “Consider an agent controlling a boat…”; the GIF is embedded right there.* Original OpenAI post (“Faulty reward functions in the wild”, 2016) – same clip, plus a short write‑up of what the agent is doing (circling a lagoon to farm green targets instead of finishing the race).Why it mattersThe agent gets shaping reward for hitting green buoys; the optimal (but unintended) strategy is to loop in a small cove where three buoys respawn, racking up points while literally setting itself on fire. The clip has been reused for years to illustrate specification gaming / reward hacking—exactly the “over‑optimization” you mentioned.This was one of a few wonderful interactions I had with o3. For more reviews on o3 as a model, you can read Dan Shipper’s post, Tyler Cowen’s AGI snark (to be honest, I agree with him), or sleuth through many independent evaluations showing o3 is great (such as beating Gemini 2.5 Pro in a long-context story eval or beating R1 in creative writing). o3 is what happens when you keep scaling the RL training compute, which also boosts inference-time compute abilities. OpenAI’s release blog post shows the many ways the model is better than o1.Some things didn’t work, these new reasoning models are very “spiky” in their intelligence. What this means is that some interactions are mind blowing and feel like entirely new modes of interacting with AI, but for some normal things that GPT-4 or Claude 3.5 have been able to do for year(s) they fall totally flat on their face. Take this as a good sign, especially when the laboratories are shipping fast, as it means that the pace of progress is so high that they need to get a model out now and will fix the oddities in the next, more mature version.The over-optimization that comes with o3’s new behaviors is linked to the new type of training. While the first reasoning models were trained to a first approximation to get math and code correct, o3 is trained with all that and to use tools to acquire and manipulate information. From OpenAI’s blog post:We also trained both models to use tools through reinforcement learning—teaching them not just how to use tools, but to reason about when to use them. Their ability to deploy tools based on desired outcomes makes them more capable in open-ended situations—particularly those involving visual reasoning and multi-step workflows.The vast majority of these sub-tasks in its training are verifiable. The problem is, this new AI training is extremely effective at making the model more useful for the tasks we’re used to using. The problem is there’s no way yet to do scalable “fixing” of the model’s weird language along the way. The new over-optimization doesn’t make the models worse at outcomes, it just makes them worse at language and explaining themselves.Some examples of o3’s weirdness feel like the model is underbaked, such as this one where it used an invalid non-ASCII dash in a coding setting.METR found that o3 is the model that can operate independently for the longest in agentic tasks, but also noted it has a propensity to “hack” their scores. Sound familiar?Transluce found that o3 hallucinated actions it took while trying to solve tasks — how does that even happen? Well, maybe the model was getting rewarded for successful tool calls and sometimes in the training data a fake tool call was incorrectly verified as real and successful. Once that happens a few times, the model will quickly catch on and keep doing it.There are plenty more examples of reward hacking and even a measurement that hallucinations are higher in o3 than in earlier recent models!It’s peculiar that the hacking for o3 has been a much more vocal component of the discourse, even when Claude 3.7 Sonnet also shows many signs of reward hacking, especially with code, but people shrug it off as “meh model” rather than a new phenomenon (more examples).This all takes me back to when Karpathy commented on the original reasoning models, saying:You can tell the RL is done properly when the models cease to speak English in their chain of thoughtThese weird hallucinations the model is outputting are the equivalent of that, but for actions. We have no basis for what hallucinations in action space look like, but with better systems, they can be easier to verify — the system / sandbox can always confirm if the actions happened, and then that can be used in the loss. The action component of o3 makes it far more interesting, but also maybe less intrusive than Claude 3.7’s messy code.From a scientific perspective, this is wonderfully entertaining and enthralling intellectually — what is the model actually learning? At the same time, it is very reasonable for the safety-conscious to be wary of deploying these everywhere, but it doesn’t seem like we’ve seen anything too alarming yet, just inefficiencies and confusion.To summarize the three types of over-optimization we’ve seen in eras of RL, we have:* RL for control era: Over-optimization happens because our environments are brittle and tasks are unrealistic.* RLHF era: Over-optimization happens because our reward functions suck.* RLVR era: Over-optimization happens and makes our models super effective and even weirder. (*plus any other side-effects we’re yet to learn).Interconnects is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber.This over-optimization is certainly a problem to address, as legibility is an important benefit of language models. I’m confident it can be mitigated with more complex training processes, but when labs are trying to get the models out ASAP it’ll come later.On top of all this is the prospect of o3pro. o3 feels similar in peak capability to o1pro (or even a little higher with its new tool use), but where o3 operates at a 60-70% hit rate, o1pro feels like it’s up at 95%. o3 pro will bring the best of both worlds — the new incredible workflow and incredible reliability. Some sort of shallow search or refinement is a very logical process to help eliminate all the minor bugs and bumps in the early inference paths we’re feeling today.On top of this is the confirmation from OpenAI employees that o4-mini is a far better multimodal model than o3. We have plenty of new ways to use these models, integrating multimodality, tool use, reasoning, and shallow search coming in the near future. You should be excited, and when o4 and o3 pro are available, paying $200/month for them feels obviously worth it.To quote Bob McGrew, former Chief Research Officer at OpenAI:The spotlight for o3 is on tool use because intelligence is no longer the primary constraint. The new frontier is reliable interaction with the external world.To make the models that enable this, we’re going to need to go through many new layers of uncertainty, surprise, and intrigue.o3 and this post are extremely bullish for the future of RL. RL is the only framing where multiple actions to a complex goal make sense to be learned end-to-end. Now, this is beginning to work. Deep Research from OpenAI was the first tool they tuned o3-with-tools to specialize in. Now it works in general queries.I personally, and we as a field, have a lot to learn about how this multi-tool RL works. Here are some recent papers that we can read to get a start (one-sentence summaries generated by o3 for the fun of it, just this one time):* Reinforcement Learning for Long‑Horizon Interactive LLM Agents: Introduces LOOP, a memory‑efficient PPO variant that trains a 32 B‑parameter LLM to operate as an interactive digital agent in AppWorld, outperforming the larger OpenAI o1 baseline by 9 percentage points.* ReTool: Reinforcement Learning for Strategic Tool Use in LLMs: Combines real‑time code execution with outcome‑driven RL so a 32 B model autonomously learns when and how to invoke tools, reaching 72.5 % accuracy on AIME and surpassing text‑only baselines.* ToRL: Scaling Tool‑Integrated RL: Presents ToRL, enabling LLMs to discover optimal computational‑tool strategies via RL, boosting Qwen2.5‑Math accuracy on AIME 24 and showing emergent self‑regulation of tool use.* Learning Autonomous Code Integration for Math Language Models: Proposes an EM‑style exploration plus off‑policy RL framework that teaches math‑reasoning LLMs to decide when to run code, yielding double‑digit gains on MATH500 and AIME without hand‑crafted templates.* Improving Multi‑Turn Tool Use with Reinforcement Learning (blog post): Shows that GRPO fine‑tuning of Qwen2.5‑7B‑Instruct on just 100 examples raises BFCL multi‑step tool‑use accuracy from 55 % to 78 %, detailing stabilizing tricks like tiny‑KL and over‑long filtering.Please share any more I missed over email or comment below! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe
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  • OpenAI's GPT-4.1 and separating the API from ChatGPT
    https://www.interconnects.ai/p/openais-gpt-41-and-separating-theRecently I gave another talk on RLVR experiments and I posted some thoughts on OLMoTrace — Ai2’s recent tool to let you look at the training data of OLMo 2.OpenAI has been making many small updates toward their vision of ChatGPT as a monolithic app separate from their API business. Last week OpenAI improved the ChatGPT memory feature — making it so the app can reference the text of previous chats in addition to basic facts about the user. Today, OpenAI announced a new suite of API-only models, GPT 4.1, which is very directly in competition with Google’s Gemini models.Individually, none of OpenAI’s recent releases are particularly frontier-shifting — comparable performance per dollar models exist — but together they paint a picture of where OpenAI’s incentives are heading. This is the same company that recently teased that it has hit 1 billion weekly active users. This is the company that needs to treat ChatGPT and the models that power it very differently from any other AI product on the market. The other leading AI products are all for coding or information, where personality, vibes, and entertainment are not placed on as high a premium.A prime example of this shift is that GPT-4.5 is being deprecated from the API (with its extreme pricing), but is going to remain in ChatGPT — where Sam Atlman has repeatedly said he’s blown away by how much users love it. I use it all the time, it’s an interesting and consistent model.Among their major model releases, such as o3, o4, or the forthcoming open model release, it can be hard to reinforce the high-level view and see where OpenAI is going.A quick summary of the model performance comes from this chart that OpenAI released in the live stream (and blog post):Chart crimes aside (using MMLU as y-axis in 2025, no measure of latency, no axis labels), the story from OpenAI is the simple takeaway — better models at faster inference speeds, which are proportional to cost. Here’s a price comparison of the new OpenAI models (Gemini Pricing, OpenAI pricing):* GPT-4.1: Input/Output: $2.00 / $8.00 | Cached Input: $0.50* GPT-4.1 Mini: Input/Output: $0.40 / $1.60 | Cached Input: $0.10* GPT-4.1 Nano: Input/Output: $0.10 / $0.40 | Cached Input: $0.025And their old models:* GPT-4o: Input/Output: $2.5 / $10.00 | Cached Input: $1.25* GPT-4o Mini: Input/Output: $0.15 / $0.60 | Cached Input: $0.075To Google’s Gemini models:* Gemini 2.5 Pro* (≤200K tokens): Input/Output: $1.25 / $10.00 | Cached: Not available* Gemini 2.5 Pro* (>200K tokens): Input/Output: $2.50 / $15.00 | Cached: Not available* Gemini 2.0 Flash: Input/Output: $0.10 / $0.40 | Cached Input: $0.025 (text/image/video), $0.175 (audio)* Gemini 2.0 Flash-Lite: Input/Output: $0.075 / $0.30 | Cached: Not available*As a reasoning model, Gemini 2.5 Pro will use many more tokens, which are also charged to the user.The academic evaluations are strong, but that isn’t the full picture for these small models that need to do repetitive, niche tasks. These models are clearly competition with Gemini Flash and Flash-Lite (Gemini 2.5 Flash coming soon following the fantastic release of Gemini 2.5 Pro — expectations are high). GPT-4o-mini has largely been accepted as laggard and hard to use relative to Flash.To win in the API business, OpenAI needs to crack this frontier from Gemini:There are many examples in the OpenAI communications that paint a familiar story with these releases — broad improvements — with few details as to why. These models are almost assuredly distilled from GPT-4.5 for personality and reasoning models like o3 for coding and mathematics. For example, there are very big improvements in code evaluations, where some of their early models were “off the map” and effectively at 0.Evaluations like coding and mathematics still fall clearly short of the likes of Gemini 2.5 (thinking model) or Claude 3.7 (optional thinking model). This shouldn’t be surprising, but is worth reminding ourselves of. While we are early in a paradigm of models shifting to include reasoning, the notion of a single best model is messier. These reasoning models use far more tokens to achieve this greatly improved performance. Performance is king, but tie goes to the cheaper model.I do not want to go into detail about OpenAI’s entire suite of models and naming right now because it does not make sense at all. Over time, the specific models are going to be of less relevance in ChatGPT (the main thing), and different models will power ChatGPT than those used in the API. We’ve already seen this with o3 powering only Deep Research for now, and OpenAI only recently walked back the line that “these models won’t be available directly.”Back to the ChatGPT side of things. For most users, the capabilities we are discussing above are effectively meaningless. For them, the dreaded slider of model effort makes much more sense:The new memory feature from last week got mixed reviews, but the old (simple) memory has been something I really enjoy about using ChatGPT. I don’t have to remind it that my puppy is a X week old miniature schnauzer or the context of my work. This’ll continue to get better over time.This feels extremely similar to as when I didn’t really notice when ChatGPT first added the search option, but now it feels like an essential part of my use (something that Claude still hasn’t felt like it does well on). Claude was my daily driver for personality, but with great search and a rapidly improving personality, ChatGPT was indispensable. Still, Gemini 2.5 Pro is a better model, but not in a better interface.I strongly expect that the memory feature will evolve into something I love about ChatGPT. It’ll be much easier to ask ChatGPT to remind you of that thing you found a couple months ago than it would be to try and parse your Google search history.Some were skeptical of these new memories from crossing personal and work uses, but I think with search, this is easy, rather than algorithmic feeds that try to balance all your interests in one. The funnel is per use, and interactions are more narrow and seem easier technically to get right.A final related point — people have long balked at the prices of chat interfaces relative to the API, but the reality that is fast approaching is that the personal experiences only exist in the app, and these are what people love. With the API, you could build a competition that accumulates its own interactions, but as OpenAI has a huge product head start, this will be an uphill battle.All of this reinforces what we know — products are the key to developments in AI right now. Memory and better separation of the ChatGPT lineage from the API helps OpenAI pave that path forward (and maybe do advertising, especially with memory), but we have a long way until it is fully realized. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe
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  • Llama 4: Did Meta just push the panic button?
    https://www.interconnects.ai/p/llama-4Where Llama 2’s and Llama 3’s releases were arguably some of the top few events in AI for their respective release years, Llama 4 feels entirely lost. Meta has attempted to reinvent their formula of models with substantial changes in size, architecture, and personality, but a coherent narrative is lacking. Meta has fallen into the trap of taking too long to ship, so the bar is impossible to cross successfully.Looking back at the history of Meta’s major open models, the sequence is as follows:* OPT – Released May 3, 2022 (ai.meta.com | 125M, 350M, 1.3B, 2.7B, 6.7B, 13B, 30B, 66B, 175B): A foundational open model that is underrated in the arc of language modeling research.* LLaMA – Released February 24, 2023 (ai.meta.com | 7B, 13B, 33B, 65B): The open weight model that powered the Alpaca age of early open chat models.* Llama 2 – Released July 18, 2023 (our coverage | about.fb.com | 7B, 13B, 70B): The open standard for academic research for its time period. Chat version had some bumps, but overall a major win.* Llama 3 – Released April 18, 2024 (our coverage | ai.meta.com | 8B, 70B): The open standard for its time. Again, fantastic base models.* Llama 3.1 – Released July 23, 2024 (our coverage | ai.meta.com | 8B, 70B, 405B): Much improved post training and the 405B marked the first time an open weight model competed with GPT-4!* Llama 3.2 – Released September 25, 2024 (our coverage | ai.meta.com | 1B, 3B, 11B, 90B): A weird, very underperforming vision release, outshined by Molmo on the same day.* Llama 3.3 – Released December 6, 2024 (github.com | 70B): Much improved post-training of the smaller 3.1 models, likely in response to other open releases, but largely a minor update.* Llama 4 – Released April 5, 2025 (ai.meta.com | 17A109B, 17A400B): What we got today.The time between major versions is growing, and the number of releases seen as exceptional by the community is dropping. Llama 4 consists of 3 models, quoting from the blog post, notes in brackets mine:* Llama 4 Scout, a 17 billion active parameter model with 16 experts [and 109B total parameters, ~40T training tokens], is the best multimodal model in the world in its class and is more powerful than all previous generation Llama models, while fitting in a single NVIDIA H100 GPU.* Llama 4 Maverick, a 17 billion active parameter model with 128 experts [and 400B total parameters, ~22T training tokens].* These models are our best yet thanks to distillation from Llama 4 Behemoth, a 288 billion active parameter [and 2T total parameters] model with 16 experts that is our most powerful yet and among the world’s smartest LLMs…. we’re excited to share more details about it even while it’s still in flight.Here are the reported benchmark scores for the first two models, which are available on many APIs and to download on HuggingFace.Where Llama models used to be scaled across different sizes with almost identical architectures, these new models are designed for very different classes of use-cases.* Llama 4 Scout is similar to a Gemini Flash model or any ultra-efficient inference MoE.* Llama 4 Maverick’s architecture is very similar to DeepSeek V3 with extreme sparsity and many active experts.* Llama 4 Behemoth is likely similar to Claude Opus or Gemini Ultra, but we don’t have substantial information on these.This release came on a Saturday, which is utterly bizarre for a major company launching one of its highest-profile products of the year. The consensus was that Llama 4 was going to come at Meta’s LlamaCon later this month. In fact, it looks like this release may have been pulled forward from today, the 7th, from a commit in the Meta Llama Github:One of the flagship features is the 10M (on Scout, Maverick is 1M) token context window on the smallest model, but even that didn’t have any released evaluations beyond Needle in a Haystack (NIAH), which is seen as a necessary condition, but not one that is sufficient to say it is a good long-context model. Some more modern long-context evaluations include RULER or NoLiMa.Many, many people have commented on how Llama 4’s behavior is drastically different in LMArena — which was their flagship result of the release — than on other providers (even when following Meta’s recommended system prompt). Turns out, from the blog post, that it is just a different model:Llama 4 Maverick offers a best-in-class performance to cost ratio with an experimental chat version scoring ELO of 1417 on LMArena.Sneaky. The results below are fake, and it is a major slight to Meta’s community to not release the model they used to create their major marketing push. We’ve seen many open models that come around to maximize on ChatBotArena while destroying the model’s performance on important skills like math or code. We’ll see where the released models land.Regardless, here’s the plot Meta used. Look at the fine print at the bottom too.This model is actually the one tanking the technical reputation of the release because its character is juvenile. The actual model on other hosting providers is quite smart and has a reasonable tone!ArtificialAnalysis rated the models as “some of the best non-reasoning models,” beating leading frontier models. This is complicated because we shouldn’t separate reasoning from non-reasoning models; we should just evaluate on reasoning and non-reasoning domains separately, as discussed in the Gemini 2.5 post. So-called “reasoning models” often top non-reasoning benchmarks, but the opposite is rarely true.Other independent evaluation results range from medium to bad and confusing — I suspect very weird results are hosting issues with the very long context models. At the same time, the Behemoth model is outclassed by Gemini 2.5 Pro. To list some of the major technical breakthroughs that Meta made (i.e. new to Llama, not new to the industry):* Mixture of expert architectures, enabling Llama 4 to be trained with less compute than Llama 3 even though they have more total parameters — a lot more.* Very long context up to 10M tokens.* Solid multimodal input performance on release day (and not a later model)Interconnects is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber.Sadly this post is barely about the technical details. Meta nuked their release vibes with weird timing and by having an off-putting chatty model that was easiest to find to talk to. The release process, timing, and big picture raise more questions for Meta. Did they panic and feel like this was their one shot at being state of the art?The evaluation scores for the models are solid, they clear a fairly high bar. With these highly varied MoE architectures, it’s super hard to feel confident in an assessment of the model based on benchmarks, especially when compared to dense models or teacher-student distilled models. The very-long-context base models will be extremely useful for research.The question here is: Why is Meta designing their models in the same way as other frontier labs when their audience is open-source AI communities and businesses, not an API serving business or ChatGPT competitor?The model sizing for the likes of Gemini and ChatGPT is downstream of nuanced decisions based on a balance of training cluster size, inference needs, and performance trade-offs. These trade-offs are very different for open models, where you don’t pay inference, and many users are not hyperscale companies.The model that becomes the “open standard” doesn’t need to be the best overall model, but rather a family of models in many shapes and sizes that is solid in many different deployment settings. Qwen 2.5, with models at 0.5B, 1.5B, 3B, 7B, 14B, 32B, and 72B parameters, is the closest to this right now. There’s actually far less competition in this space than in the space Meta chose to go into (and take on DeepSeek)!One of these communities historically has been the LocalLlama subreddit, which named the entire community around running models at home around the Llama series of models — they’re not happy with Llama 4. Another community is academics, where the series of models across different size ranges is wonderful for understanding language models and improving methods. These two groups are all GPU-poor, so memory-intensive models like these sparse mixture of experts price out even more participants in the open community (who tend to be memory-limited).This is all on top of an onerous license that makes all artifacts that use Llama in the process be tagged with the “Llama-” name, the Llama license, the “Built with Llama” branding if used commercially, and use-case restrictions. This is at the same time when their competitors, i.e. DeepSeek, released their latest flagship model with an MIT license (which has no downstream restrictions).A third group is potential businesses looking to use open models on-premises as open models close the gap to closed counterparts. These feel like groups that would be sensitive to the extra legal risk that Llama’s license exposes them to.On top of all of this weirdness, many of Meta’s “open-source” efforts are restricted in the European Union. Where the Llama 3.2 models blocked you if you tried to access them from Europe, Llama 4 is available for download but prohibits the use of vision capabilities in an acceptable use policy. This is not entirely Meta’s fault, as many companies are dealing with side effects of the EU AI Act, but regulatory exposure needs to be considered in Meta’s strategy.Meta had a tight grasp on these communities, the Llama projects were rightfully loved, but now they feel lost. With Qwen 3 around the corner and countless other amazing open-weight models out now (and many more teased, such as from OpenAI), the competition is extreme.The soul of the Llama series died by not releasing enough models frequently enough. Reclaiming that with GenAI’s constant organizational headaches looks like a Sisyphean task. What is Meta’s differentiation in the AI space? It still seems about enabling their own platforms to flourish, not about truly supporting open.Meta’s GenAI organization has been showing major signs of cultural challenges thoughout its entire existence — including their head of AI research leaving just a few days before this model was launched.Sadly, the evaluations for this release aren’t even the central story. The vibes have been off since the beginning by choosing a weird release date. Over the coming weeks, more and more people will find reliable uses for Llama 4, but in a competitive landscape, that may not be good enough. Llama is no longer the open standard. Personally, this makes me sad. As an American, I want the default pieces of the open ecosystem to be run by American or American-friendly companies.With the macro pressure coming to Meta’s business and the increasing commoditization of open models, how is Zuckerberg going to keep up in face of shareholder pressure pushing back against the cost of the Llama project? This isn’t the first time he’s done so, but he needs to reevaluate the lowest level principles of their approach to open AI. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe
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  • RL backlog: OpenAI's many RLs, clarifying distillation, and latent reasoning
    https://www.interconnects.ai/p/rl-backlog-openais-many-rls-clarifyingI have a second blog where I post half-baked thoughts, sometimes previews of what comes here. If you’re interested, I posted some musings on OpenAI’s coming open model release.It’s obvious that reinforcement learning (RL) is having a total return to glory among the broader AI community, but its real successes are mostly the things people aren’t focusing on. More math and code datasets are important platforms — we know they’re coming and are important. They’re still over-indexed on. The same RL methods are being used in many of the leading models and AI products.This is largely a post I wrote a few weeks ago on RL news, which I was following. It never had a focusing function, so it didn’t get published, but I’m sharing it because many folks are following this area very closely. Today:* OpenAI’s many forms of RL,* On distilling chain of thoughts vs. RL,* Did DeepSeek distill o1?, and* Why latent reasoning is so interesting.Interconnects is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber.OpenAI’s many forms of RLFor those plugged into the OpenAI cultural tap that is Twitter, it is obvious that they’re very invested in reinforcement learning. With the hype around the release of their o-series of reasoning models, it was easy to assume that those were the only avenue for excitement. OpenAI’s recent releases have shown this is not the case, and every release from a model launch to a new product has included mentions of RL training. Some of this, of course, is marketing, but they all fit as different applications of reinforcement finetuning (RFT) / RL with verifiable rewards (RLVR).The first other application was OpenAI’s Operator agent. They stated:Combining GPT-4o's vision capabilities with advanced reasoning through reinforcement learning, CUA is trained to interact with graphical user interfaces (GUIs)—the buttons, menus, and text fields people see on a screen.There’s a bit more speculation to do than normal in this post. Ultimately, with partners they launched with like DoorDash, Instacart, etc., they could set up verifiable domains where the agent is rewarded for accomplishing a natural language task. This could rely on help from those websites to get started. Ultimately, lots of people know that this could work, as agents deeply tied to the core of RL lore, but the implementation details haven’t really been worked out in open projects.The same goes for Deep Research. They stated:Deep research independently discovers, reasons about, and consolidates insights from across the web. To accomplish this, it was trained on real-world tasks requiring browser and Python tool use, using the same reinforcement learning methods behind OpenAI o1, our first reasoning model.Deep research was trained using end-to-end reinforcement learning on hard browsing and reasoning tasks across a range of domains.Some more was shared in the Deep Research system card.There are lots of things one can envision — e.g. agent gets a reward if the document retrieved from search has relevant information (not a verifiable reward, but LLM-as-a-judge). Most of this is likely used to get very high reliability across tool use to enable the tons of calls done in the back end when a call takes 10+ minutes for the user.More | research | has emerged on RAG/search with RL.Least surprising was the announcement of the new GitHub CoPilot model with new and improved RL training for code:Our new code completion model is shipping in public preview today. We are calling it GPT-4o Copilot. Based on GPT-4o mini, with mid-training on a code-focused corpus exceeding 1T tokens and reinforcement learning with code execution feedback (RLEF).This all goes back to what I said in OpenAI's Reinforcement Finetuning and RL for the masses — this new RL training is a perfectly aligned way to get nearly perfect performance on a domain you can control carefully. The best results come with mastery of the domain and with training.A fun speculation that OpenAI is really invested in RL and post-training is that their new o3-mini model has the same date cutoff, October 2023, as OpenAI’s other flagship models. This getting very far in the past shows how invested OpenAI is in their search products (which, to be fair are quite good) for information and how such strong performance gains can come by other improvements in the stack of training.OpenAI also released a paper on competitive coding with RL training, but it did not have a ton of useful details.On distilling chain of thoughts vs. RLThere were a few points from the DeepSeek paper and discourse that warrant repeating. To repeat it, distillation in this case is training a model (usually with SFT, but any loss function works) on outputs from a stronger model. Let’s get right into it.First, DeepSeek made it very clear that using more RL after distillation (SFT) is crucial for the best possible models.Additionally, we found that applying RL to these distilled models yields significant further gains. We believe this warrants further exploration and therefore present only the results of the simple SFT-distilled models here.My current understanding here is that matching the data distribution from the base model’s training to the distillation data and the RL prompts is very important. This specifically is crucial for enabling RL at the end — SFT will almost always boost the scores, but can narrow the scope to which the model can be finetuned more. DeepSeek figured this out for their models, but didn’t share the details.The next point is on how scale mediates the impact of RL training:First, distilling more powerful models into smaller ones yields excellent results, whereas smaller models relying on the large-scale RL mentioned in this paper require enormous computational power and may not even achieve the performance of distillation.This is more confusing than useful, and drawn from the fact that “DeepSeek-R1- Distill-Qwen-32B, which is distilled from DeepSeek-R1, performs significantly better than DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Qwen-32B across all benchmarks”. We should not expect that -Zero style models trained only with RL will perform well on benchmarks (unless you’re training on test). This is not what they are designed for. The distilled models are trained on text very finely tuned for existing language modeling workflows. The RL-Zero (not distilled) models are very exporatory in their behaviors.The right baseline would be putting Qwen-32B through the whole R1 recipe — which would be far more likely to outperform the distilled version.With this is the fact that small models take more work from RL. Doing this sort of exploratory RL is much easier with big models. It could be that they hold more rare behaviors in them during pretraining and RL draws them out. The smaller models may squash these long-tail behaviors.Continuing on this, the DeepSeek authors state:Second, while distillation strategies are both economical and effective, advancing beyond the boundaries of intelligence may still require more powerful base models and larger scale reinforcement learning.Did DeepSeek distill OpenAI’s o1 model? (hint, no)This is a question I meant to address ages ago, but here we are, a few model launches got in the way. The criticism pushed by OpenAI and many media outlets is that DeepSeek was trained on reasoning traces from OpenAI’s o1 model. OpenAI spent approximately 18 months getting the initial data to train their o1 model, so it is understandable that they are wary of giving that away for free, but the existing evidence suggests that DeepSeek training on o1-CoTs is extremely unlikely.To start, the o1 chains of thought were not visible to the users. In order to get this data, DeepSeek would need to reliably hack the OpenAI API or ChatGPT to reveal this data. Users were getting banned from OpenAI’s properties for trying to do this. Creating this scale of a cover-up is unlikely to go unnoticed.Second, as shown in the DeepSeek R1 recipe, training on on-policy completions from your model(s) is crucial to training a model like this. In many ways, distilling from CoTs would likely be harder to create the final R1 model than following the recipe DeepSeek presented in the paper. They have evidence in training plots that their RL training works.At the same time, this is a hard claim to settle, as I think it is very likely that DeepSeek used OpenAI model outputs in the training process of their recent models. Distillation in multiple stages of the post-training process is a very common practice. For example, in order to do initial post-training on models like DeepSeek V3, training on completions from OpenAI chat models is a very simple way to get going.To this day, OpenAI is still worried about distillation from their chain of thoughts, or they’re doing something that makes it so showing the underlying chain of thought doesn’t make sense (e.g. basic forms of search or self-consistency). For example, OpenAI now shows summaries of the chain of thoughts for their o-series models, but they’re not raw like Claude or Gemini’s.These aren't the raw CoTs but it's a big step closer and I'm glad we can share that experience with the world.Why latent reasoning is so interestingOne of the most intellectually engaging ideas to emerge during this early 2025 rush of reasoning research is a set of ideas where language models can reason in a compressed intermediate representation rather than outputting the same text tokens, which come with the quadratic inference cost. The two papers that come to mind are:* Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Space* Scaling up Test-Time Compute with Latent Reasoning: A Recurrent Depth ApproachHere’s a figure from the latter:Without going into details of these papers’ implementations, this is compelling because it pushes in the direction of letting language models think in whatever representation suits them. Then, they’ll output tokens or take actions in a form that works in the environment or is human legible.We’ve already seen many related results of RL training, such as the DeepSeek R1 Zero model switching from English to Chinese randomly when it thinks.Ultimately, RL training is all about improving outcomes, so this type of structural drift is expected. The question is whether we can incentivize the models to use far more compressed representations than the standard language tokens used in modern tokenizers.An existing trade-off already exists in language models, where non-English languages are often far more costly than English to perform inference on because they’re a lower priority in the tokenizer (or the language is just more verbose). The goal of latent or compressed reasoning research is to push this in the other direction.Anthropic has been doing interesting research on understanding the nature of the reasoning traces from Claude. With their reasoning launch, they already stated that:we didn’t perform our standard character training on the model’s thought process.They’ve also seen that the reasoning is not connected with the model’s actual thoughts.Thus far, our results suggest that models very often make decisions based on factors that they don’t explicitly discuss in their thinking process. This means we can’t rely on monitoring current models’ thinking to make strong arguments about their safety.This is expected. The reasoning chain is not the same artifact that humans use chain of thought for even if it appears in the same format. Chain of thought is generating the right context to get the final answer right. There are no guarantees that the most interpretable form is the one with the highest performance — in fact, in many deep learning systems end-to-end learning where no constraints are put on the intermediate representation is often best!To end, I’m leaving you with another classic Rich Sutton essay in full (author of the Bitter Lesson). With RL, better verifiers make it so you get more out of RL training and inference-time scaling:Verification, The Key to AIRich Sutton, November 15, 2021It is a bit unseemly for an AI researcher to claim to have a special insight or plan for how his field should proceed. If he has such, why doesn't he just pursue it and, if he is right, exhibit its special fruits? Without denying that, there is still a role for assessing and analyzing the field as a whole, for diagnosing the ills that repeatedly plague it, and to suggest general solutions.The insight that I would claim to have is that the key to a successful AI is that it can tell for itself whether or not it is working correctly. At one level this is a pragmatic issue. If the AI can't tell for itself whether it is working properly, then some person has to make that assessment and make any necessary modifications. An AI that can assess itself may be able to make the modifications itself.The Verification Principle:An AI system can create and maintain knowledge only to the extent that it can verify that knowledge itself.Successful verification occurs in all search-based AI systems, such as planners, game-players, even genetic algorithms. Deep Blue, for example, produces a score for each of its possible moves through an extensive search. Its belief that a particular move is a good one is verified by the search tree that shows its inevitable production of a good position. These systems don't have to be told what choices to make; they can tell for themselves. Image trying to program a chess machine by telling it what kinds of moves to make in each kind of position. Many early chess programs were constructed in this way. The problem, of course, was that there were many different kinds of chess positions. And the more advice and rules for move selection given by programmers, the more complex the system became and the more unexpected interactions there were between rules. The programs became brittle and unreliable, requiring constant maintainence, and before long this whole approach lost out to the "brute force" searchers.Although search-based planners verify at the move selection level, they typically cannot verify at other levels. For example, they often take their state-evaluation scoring function as given. Even Deep Blue cannot search to the end of the game and relies on a human-tuned position-scoring function that it does not assess on its own. A major strength of the champion backgammon program, TD-Gammon, is that it does assess and improve its own scoring function.Another important level at which search-based planners are almost never subject to verification is that which specifies the outcomes of the moves, actions, or operators. In games such as chess with a limited number of legal moves we can easily imagine programming in the consequences of all of them accurately. But if we imagine planning in a broader AI context, then many of the allowed actions will not have their outcomes completely known. If I take the bagel to Leslie's office, will she be there? How long will it take to drive to work? Will I finish this report today? So many of the decisions we take every day have uncertain and changing effects. Nevertheless, modern AI systems almost never take this into account. They assume that all the action models will be entered accurately by hand, even though these may be most of the knowledge in or ever produced by the system.Finally, let us make the same point about knowledge in general. Consider any AI system and the knowledge that it has. It may be an expert system or a large database like CYC. Or it may be a robot with knowledge of a building's layout, or knowledge about how to react in various situations. In all these cases we can ask if the AI system can verify its own knowledge, or whether it requires people to intervene to detect errors and unforeseen interactions, and make corrections. As long as the latter is the case we will never be able to build really large knowledge systems. They will always be brittle and unreliable, and limited in size to what people can monitor and understand themselves."Never program anything bigger than your head"And yet it is overwhelmingly the case that today's AI systems are not able to verify their own knowledge. Large ontologies and knowledge bases are built that are totally reliant on human construction and maintenance. "Birds have wings" they say, but of course they have no way of verifying this.Sharing a copy of Rich Sutton’s essay because his website sometimes has DNS issues and goes down. http://incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/KeytoAI.htmlThanks for reading!Thanks to Tanmay Gupta for helpful links or comments used in this article. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe
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  • Gemini 2.5 Pro and Google's second chance with AI
    https://www.interconnects.ai/p/gemini-25-pro-googles-second-ai-chanceGoogle, with its immense infrastructure and talent, has been the safe bet for the question of “Who will have the best models in a few years?” Google took a long time to get here, overcoming Bard’s launch and some integration headaches, and yet the model they launched today, Gemini 2.5 Pro feels like the biggest jump in evaluation scores we’ve seen in quite some time.It’s often hard to communicate how the models we are getting these days are actually better. To be informed, you need to take a balanced view across many benchmarks, look roughly at the percentage by which the model is clearly state-of-the-art, and of course, try the model yourself.To summarize, while more evaluations are rolling in, Gemini 2.5 Pro is 40+ Elo points clear on the popular ChatBotArena / LM Arena benchmark (more here). Normally, when a model launches and claims the top spot, it’s barely ahead. In fact, this is the second biggest jump of the top model in LMSYS history, only behind the GPT-4 Turbo overtaking Claude 1. GPT-4 Turbo is when models were not really trained for the benchmark, so progress was much faster.The blog post highlights insane scores on the benchmarks used to evaluate the leading reasoning models. One to note here is the score of 18.8 on Humanity’s Last Exam without search or tools, which was one of the evaluations I highlighted as impressive with the launch of OpenAI’s Deep Research, which compiles knowledge from the web!Gemini 2.5 is topping other independent evaluations such as the Scale Leaderboard (which is underrated or at least low on visibility, more here). More independent evaluations are going to trickle in, but all of the ones I’ve seen are extremely positive.Gemini still is also the model with the longest context length and with very strong multimodal performance (including audio). There are plenty of small wins that Google has like this that are hard to see when skimming the benchmarks above.So, how did Google do it? As usual, the blog post doesn’t have a ton of technical details. Google says:we've achieved a new level of performance by combining a significantly enhanced base model with improved post-training.Until we have API pricing, it’ll be harder to make even informed guesses about whether the model is huge like GPT-4.5. As for understanding how Gemini models will behave, Google shares:Going forward, we’re building these thinking capabilities directly into all of our models, so they can handle more complex problems and support even more capable, context-aware agents.This idea of directly integrating reasoning into all of their models is something Sam Altman teased for GPT-5. This trend has serious trade-offs on user experience that we will get to later, but it is crucial for people to keep up with as the discourse today is often centered on "the best non-reasoning model” or “the best reasoning model.”This came up recently with DeepSeek’s new V3 model.DeepSeek's new model (0324) is a major update in performance and license. The MIT license will make it hugely impactful for research and open building. Though many are ending up confused about whether it is a "reasoning" model. The model is contrasted to their R1 model, which is an only-reasoning model (like o1).Reasoning models are on a spectrum now, and it's not just yes or no. GPT 4.5 is a good example of what a model with pretty much no reasoning looks like today.Compared to other models in the industry, like Claude 3.7 and Grok 3 with reasoning toggles, the new DeepSeek V3 is definitely in this class of "hybrid reasoners" where models are still trained extensively with RL on verifiable domains (or distilled directly from another reasoning model), but other parts of the post-training process come first and hold more weight than the RL heavy reasoning-only models.This is all to say that when people say that "DeepSeek V3 0324 is the best non-reasoner model," that doesn't really make sense. The original V3 had very light post-training, so it wasn't really on the reasoning model spectrum.Now, things are complicated. It'll be like this for a while!Gemini 2.5 Pro is quite simple. It is very much a reasoning model, at least in how it is offered to users in Gemini Advanced and AI studio — every query has reasoning before an answer. It is fairly conclusive now that using this extended reasoning can boost performance across many domains, but it’s not clear how to best trade off cost and speed with varying amounts of reasoning.Gemini 2.5 in its current offering is a brute force approach — a big, very smart model that is tuned to use a lot of reasoning tokens — and it’s good for the trajectory of the industry that it paid off with such high performance.Interconnects is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber.The state of the AI industryWith launches from DeepSeek, GPT-4.5 from OpenAI, Claude 3.7 from Anthropic, Grok 3 from xAI, and now Gemini 2.5 Pro, this has been a wild spring for progress in AI models. The major AI laboratories have all delivered super impressive performance — this post feels like the ribbon that ties all of them together.The one player seriously missing this spring is Meta with their Llama models. They’ve fallen into the trap where the longer you go between models, the harder it gets to release them because expectations get higher. I hope Llama 4 succeeds because they’re a large part of the open community, but it is a warning to AI laboratories on how to manage deliverables.With the major progress that AI labs are making, it feels like the answer for who will have the best model is now who can drop the hot potato of a cutting-edge model into the real world the fastest.The common interpretation of events is that models are commoditizing, but that is an incomplete story. The value in the ecosystem is poised to accrue to the sites with users. Some established ones in AI are ChatGPT, Perplexity, Cursor, etc. This may not always be the case is uses for AI evolve.What we’re seeing with the newest models is that the pace of progress is staying high in many areas (i.e. more than just ChatBotArena). All sorts of evaluations, from niche information to hard mathematics to software development, are getting new leading models every few weeks.The more often state-of-the-art models are released in a fixed time window, the more confident you can be in the pace of progress continuing. These labs are all racing up similar trees, but it’s only possible for so much competition to exist when progress isn’t super hard to find. The ceiling on performance is rising and the potential value underneath it that we haven’t unlocked is continuing to balloon.Google AI’s second chanceThis quote has been going around after Ben Thompson interviewed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on his plans for OpenAI:Ben Thompson: What’s going to be more valuable in five years? A 1-billion daily active user destination site that doesn’t have to do customer acquisition, or the state-of-the-art model?Sam Altman: The 1-billion user site I think.A world where user-facing websites are the most valuable part of AI is a world where AI is less of a platform for doing things and more of a tool for complementing existing habits. AI progress is as high as it ever has been, and the focus of that is on moving from benchmarks towards turning them into agents and tools.Google’s biggest opportunity is being the one player that has it all — leading models, infrastructure, and a cloud offering to make it the default platform for building value with AI. They have users to retain with Google.com, which they are obviously trying to do, but the rest of their efforts should be on being an AI platform.With this release, I spent time trying to use Google’s Gemini Advanced offerings like I use ChatGPT and Claude. These use cases were immediately confusing. It didn’t feel like Chat is at all the right way to evaluate this new Gemini 2.5 model. It’s perfectly capable, but without a depth of personality it feels lost relative to the fun GPT-4.5 or the ever quirky Claude.And why am I paying for Gemini Advanced? Google is the company known for giving things away for free and at scale. If Google isn’t committed to figuring out advertisements for its chat products, then it’ll never meaningfully shift the revenue. Breaking through the moat of ChatGPT with anything other than better models at a free plan is next to impossible at this point. The disruption and new habits have already formed.Many of my experiences with Gemini 2.5 Pro, other than lacking the distinctive character of GPT 4.5 and Claude 3+, where Gemini feels sort of bland, have to do with the form factor of forcing reasoning into every model. Even for basic queries the extensive reasoning of Gemini 2.5 Pro makes the time to first token on the order of seconds.Normal consumers don’t benefit from the improvements with reasoning that are accompanied by such a decrease in speed. For agents doing substantial work in the background, a long time to first token or a bland personality don’t matter!Reasoning heavily on every query is a major quality-of-life drain for chat and reopens the same discussions on reasoning models that balance when they should reason. Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and OpenAI all have selectors for toggling reasoning on or off. This should be the default until models are better.Gemini should not be focusing on competing with ChatGPT in the same business. That’s a losing battle and arguably not even the biggest possible final market — subscriptions never have scaled to be the core of the world’s largest companies.Where Gemini Advanced (at gemini.google.com) feels like a ChatGPT clone, AI Studio (at ai.dev) feels like the onboarding point for developers and customers using their platform. Logan and others have made big progress softening the barrier for people jumping from OpenAI and Anthropic to Google. These leads are far more valuable than Gemini Advanced subscribers.Google should be a platform for others to build AI and use AI to make their offerings better. Google has had success with its AI overviews and continues to build on that. At the same time, their offerings for using Gemini in products have pretty much failed completely.There are two clear avenues where Google can use Gemini to deliver business value:* Gemini for product: Enhancing existing products like Docs, Sheets, YouTube, Android, Assistant, etc. — i.e., taking the above and making it actually work. The Gemini product offerings across the Google suite are pretty much still in their Bard stage. The same focus and execution from training needs to extend into Gemini products and Google Cloud for the next stage of this arc. Extreme value is ready to be captured by the models even if the models don’t continue to improve. The urgency on products at this point very well should be higher than the pressure to train better models.* Google Cloud: Offering fast and cheap inference of Gemini in the form factor developers need. Google Cloud, being integrated from hardware in TPUs to model can often provide the best models now at the lowest prices. Selling Gemini into a world of flourishing agents is a far better match for Google’s culture of product successes. AI Studio and API developer relations around it can be a seed that grows.Google has the best models again, as they should have started this whole AI bloom. The strategic error has been righted. The AI leadership has woken up to the crisis, and the researchers/engineers have risen to the occasion. The rest of the company has to do the same. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.interconnects.ai/subscribe
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