The Bottom Line

“The US has won” because Iran has become “incapable of being a significant threat” to the United States for at least three years, argues retired Lieutenant Colonel James Carafano, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Carafano tells host Steve Clemons that even if Iran were to rebound, “Trump will just mow the grass… and bomb them back to where they were.” The importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's ability to control access to it are exaggerated, Carafano argued. Israeli ideas of changing the government in Tehran are “irrelevant”, Carafano added, “because they can’t do it without us”.

“There is no good outcome” that can be gained from the United States-Israel war on Iran, argues the former ambassador of France to the US, Gerard Araud. Responding to US President Donald Trump’s attempts to get European countries more involved in the war effort, Araud tells host Steve Clemons that “If you wanted us at the landing, you should have thought of us at the takeoff.” Araud says the current moment is similar to the US quagmire in Vietnam in the 1960s, when the White House continued to surge and escalate, creating “an illusion” that the war was nearing a conclusion.

Israel’s leaders have finally found a United States president “stupid enough and reckless enough” to join them in a war against Iran, argues US Senator Chris Van Hollen. Van Hollen, a Democrat, tells host Steve Clemons that the US capacity to degrade the Iranian military has never been in question. “The question is to what end, both in lives and treasure,” he says. On the attempts by Israeli and US officials to frame the war as a holy quest, Van Hollen argues that “The last thing the world needs is a religious war.”

Even though the joint United States-Israeli war on Iran is in its early days, “we already are in a scenario where the US has lost control of this war,” argues Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. Nasr tells host Steve Clemons that Iran is the weaker party, but it “has the capability to create a much longer mayhem” than envisioned by the US and Israel. US goals for this war may be unclear, but “Israel’s goal is to arrive at a point where it’s the supreme power in the Mideast”, says Nasr.

US President Donald Trump is falling into the same trap as his predecessor, Joe Biden, when he tries to convince Americans that they’re better off financially, argues YouTuber Brian Tyler Cohen. Cohen and Matt Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, join host Steve Clemons to dissect Trump’s State of the Union address and vision for the United States. One of Trump’s strengths is the weakness of his main opposition, the Democratic Party, argues Cohen, as the party acts “in a way that's completely untethered to how the vast majority of Democrats actually feel”.