Conflicts of Interest

One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region.
In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East.
From Lebanon and Iraq to the Gulf and beyond, the panel explores how the war is spreading through alliances, militias, political networks, and economic pressures, and where new risks could emerge if escalation continues.
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As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran approaches its first month, the question many analysts are now asking is whether the conflict could escalate beyond airstrikes. With thousands of U.S. troops moving into the region and growing speculation about operations around the Strait of Hormuz, talk of a possible ground invasion is no longer hypothetical. 
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the headlines dominating the media: Trump’s ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, escalating strikes on energy infrastructure, and rumours of a new phase of the war. Could a ground operation actually happen — and if so, what would it look like?
Drawing on ACLED’s real-time conflict data, they explore:
 why airstrikes alone may not achieve strategic objectives 
 what a limited ground operation in southern Iran or around key maritime chokepoints might involve 
 how control of global energy routes is shaping the war 
 and why the search for a “silver bullet” in modern conflicts almost always fails. 
They also examine the wider ripple effects already unfolding — from protests across the world to attacks and tensions emerging far beyond the Middle East.
Because if this war has shown anything so far, it’s that escalation rarely follows the script — and there is no quick end in sight.
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As the war around Iran continues to widen, attention is turning to the network of militias linked to Tehran across the region.
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED experts Dr Luca Nevola and Bassel Doueik to unpack what’s happening on two key fronts: Yemen and Lebanon.
Why has Hezbollah escalated from Lebanon, while the Houthis appear to be holding back? What role do these groups play in Iran’s regional strategy, and how might their decisions shape the next phase of the conflict?
Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, the team explains how these militias operate, what they are watching for, and what their next moves could mean for the wider war.

 
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The Iran war is more than a regional conflict.
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Bron Mills and ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh examine how the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding beyond the battlefield, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, oil supply and the wider international system.
They discuss the growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where threats to shipping and oil supply are raising global economic concerns, as well as the continued strikes targeting military infrastructure inside Iran.
The conversation explores:
Why the conflict is widening rather than slowing
How disruptions to oil and shipping could affect the global economy
Why countries like the UK, Japan, Australia and the EU are hesitant to become involved
and what “success” actually looks like for the actors involved in the war.
As the conflict spreads across the region and its consequences ripple outward, one thing is becoming clear: the impact of this war is being felt far beyond the Middle East.
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As strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. What began as an exchange of missile attacks is quickly evolving into a broader regional confrontation with global consequences.
In this emergency episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and media relations manager Bron Mills break down what the first ten days of the war reveal about strategy, escalation, and the risks ahead.
They discuss why this conflict has spread across more countries faster than almost any modern war, how missile and drone attrition could shape the battlefield, and what Iran’s new leadership means for the direction of the conflict. The conversation also explores the role of the IRGC, the limits of air power, and why running out of weapons may matter less than running out of political will.
Finally, they tackle the question many people around the world are asking: Are we witnessing the early stages of a world war?
For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. 
Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED

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