Conflicts of Interest

Ukraine has produced millions of drones and lost thousands more — and that hard-won expertise is now in high demand. 
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Ukraine expert Witold Stupnicki unpack how Kyiv is exporting its drone warfare knowledge to Gulf states, why a $50 drone can outmanoeuvre a $3 million missile, and what that means for the future of conflict.
From frozen front lines to Saudi air bases, the drone revolution is reshaping how wars are fought — and by whom. But as Stupnicki warns, Europe shouldn't feel safe either. A shapeless, ever-present drone threat is already on its doorstep. 
This is a conversation you won't want to miss.
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As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders.

In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Senior Research Assistant Nohad Eltayeb unpack the drivers of this new phase of war: the UAE’s role in RSF supply routes and political pressure on SAF, how Chad’s border closure has driven up RSF transport and fuel costs, militia networks stretching toward Niger, and how fractured loyalties and fluid alliances are entrenching long-term conflict fragmentation.

Can a war built on shifting alliances, militia economies, and foreign patrons end through negotiation — or does fragmentation become the next phase of conflict?
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An assassination attempt on the US president.
A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali.
Rising violence in Chad.
Continued fighting in Lebanon.
As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny.
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the significant developments over the last 48 hours alone - and the dynamics driving this moment — from stalled negotiations and economic pressure in Iran, to the resurgence of conflict across the Sahel and the Middle East.
The question isn’t just whether the Iran war will escalate — but how many other conflicts already are.
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JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram.
These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism.
Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region.
In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Sahel expert Heni Nsaibia to unpack how the Sahel became the global epicentre of terrorism. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the strategies of these groups, the role of military-led governments, and the local dynamics fuelling the spread of violence.
The question isn’t just why the Sahel has become so deadly—but how far this instability could spread, and what it means for global security.

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Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher. 
As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. 
In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling Iran’s vulnerability, the implications of the U.S. blockade, and Israel's asymmetric warfare tactics. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the complex web of regional actors, from Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon to the Saudi and Gulf states' subtle balancing act, and the economic chokehold designed to weaken Iran from within.
The question isn't just what happens next, but how these strategic moves could tip the balance of power and reshape alliances for years to come. 
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