Bionic Planet: Reversing Climate Change by Restoring Nature

This episode of Bionic Planet is a rebroadcast of David Hill's podcast, "How to Avoid Moving to Mars." In it, Professor David Hill, CBE, speaks with George Kelly, the Chief Executive of Earth Recovery Partners in the U.S. George has been a pivotal figure in the realm of mitigation banking and ecological restoration. Their conversation delves into his extensive career, starting from his early days as an environmental law practitioner to his current role supporting emerging enterprises in the environmental market. George shared insights into his journey, beginning with his master's degree in environmental law and his work at a law firm focused on environmental issues, including the Superfund law. He highlighted the importance of viewing the environment as an asset rather than a cost center. They discussed the evolution of mitigation banking in the U.S., including the challenges posed by in-lieu fees and the need for a level playing field in mitigation practices. George explained the significance of the 2008 Federal Mitigation Rule, which established rigorous standards for mitigation banking and emphasized the importance of long-term stewardship and accountability in ecological restoration projects. Throughout their conversation, George emphasized the role of private finance in ecological restoration, discussing various funding models such as green bonds and public-private partnerships. He highlighted the potential for these models to drive effective environmental solutions while ensuring that public funds are used efficiently. As they explored the future of environmental markets, George expressed optimism about the growth of offset markets and the increasing recognition of the inherent value of nature. He pointed to the importance of corporate responsibility and the need for businesses to embrace sustainable practices as a means of driving positive change. In closing, George shared his admiration for historical figures in the conservation movement, such as Teddy Roosevelt and John Muir, while also acknowledging the contributions of contemporary thinkers like E.O. Wilson. He underscored the necessity of valuing nature and recognizing its role in our economy, urging listeners to consider the long-term implications of environmental degradation. This episode was not only enlightening but also a call to action for all of us to engage in the vital work of protecting our planet. I hope you find David's questions and George's insights as inspiring as I did, and I encourage you to reflect on how we can all contribute to a more sustainable future.

In Episode 112 of Bionic Planet, titled "Fantasy Football and Dynamic Baselines: New Tools for Impact Assessment," we unpack the often misunderstood concept of dynamic baselines and its origin in synthetic controls, using fantasy football as an analogy. The episode begins with a clear and relatively simple explanation of dynamic baselines, which have emerged as a valuable tool in climate finance. Unlike traditional static baselines, which rely on fixed reference points, dynamic baselines adapt to changing conditions and provide a more accurate measure of impact. We discuss the importance of data and the need for robust methodologies to ensure that we can effectively attribute changes in deforestation and other environmental metrics to specific interventions. Our guests for this episode are Lynn Riley from the American Forest Foundation and David Schoch from TerraCarbon, both of whom have played pivotal roles in advancing the application of synthetic controls in carbon markets. They share insights from their work on the Family Forest Carbon Program, which aims to engage small family landowners in sustainable forest management practices. Through their collaboration, they have developed methodologies that not only improve the accuracy of carbon accounting but also empower landowners to adapt their practices based on real-time feedback. Throughout the episode, we examine the challenges of establishing effective baselines in diverse contexts, particularly in the United States. We highlight the significance of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which provides a rich source of information for modeling deforestation risk and assessing the impact of various interventions. The conversation also touches on the importance of addressing confounding variables and ensuring that methodologies are applicable across different forest types and ownership structures. As we wrap up, we reflect on the broader implications of dynamic baselines for climate finance and the potential for these innovative approaches to drive meaningful change in forest management. By fostering a more responsive and data-driven framework, we can better understand the impacts of our actions and work towards a more sustainable future. Join us for this engaging episode as we bridge the worlds of sports and environmental science, uncovering the lessons that can be learned from both fields in our quest to navigate the Anthropocene. Timestamps 00:00:00 - Introduction to Bionic Planet and Episode Overview 00:01:03 - Justin Fields and the NFL Draft Dynamics 00:02:14 - Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields: A Season Comparison 00:04:27 - Troy Aikman on Rookie Quarterback Struggles 00:05:53 - Sam Darnold's Journey Through the NFL 00:06:58 - Kurt Warner's Unlikely Rise to Success 00:07:48 - Connecting Sports Performance to Climate Impact Assessment 00:08:31 - Challenges in Measuring Success in Climate Finance 00:09:12 - Dynamic Baselines vs. Traditional Baselines 00:10:32 - Introduction of Guests: Lynn Riley and David Schoch 00:11:18 - Overview of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:11:59 - The Green Municipalities Program in Brazil 00:12:53 - Evaluating the Impact of the Green Municipalities Program 00:13:58 - Synthetic Control Method Explained 00:15:30 - Causal Inference and Its Importance 00:16:52 - Fantasy Football as an Analogy for Synthetic Controls 00:19:00 - Comparison of Real and Synthetic Outcomes 00:20:58 - The Role of Data in Impact Assessment 00:21:31 - Discussion on the Synthetic Control Method Paper 00:22:30 - David Schoch's Contributions to the Research 00:25:05 - Weighting in Synthetic Control Methodology 00:26:32 - Eliminating Uncertainty in Climate Finance 00:28:13 - Linking Methodologies to Improved Forest Management 00:30:59 - Data Sufficiency and Methodology Applicability 00:31:39 - Engaging Small Landowners in Carbon Markets 00:33:43 - The Role of the U.S. Forest Service Data 00:35:41 - Public Consultation and Methodology Development 00:36:09 - Interventions for Improved Forest Management 00:38:36 - Risk Sharing in Carbon Credit Projects 00:40:56 - The Importance of Monitoring and Feedback 00:42:05 - Evolution of the Family Forest Carbon Program 00:50:07 - Challenges in Data Collection and Stakeholder Engagement Quotes "Bionic Planet is the longest-running program in any medium devoted to navigating the Anthropocene, the new epoch defined by man's impact on Earth." - 00:00:10 "Football fans, like all sports fans, love arguing about who is better and who's just lucky." - 00:01:25 "Different people, different circumstances. And how do you tell who's better?" - 00:06:04 "We can restore it. Make it better, greener, more resilient, more sustainable. But how?" - 00:08:09 "Dynamic baselines adapt to shifting conditions and update more frequently." - 00:09:34 "The fundamental concept of synthetic controls is something we all use every day." - 00:16:52 "To see if an intervention works, you can synthetically model a control unit or an imaginary city where the variables are similar." - 00:16:09 "The ultimate goal in both cases is comparison." - 00:19:00 "It's not that the introduction of these methods eliminates uncertainty, but it did eliminate an important source of uncertainty and confounding." - 00:26:42 "There's always going to be a gap between a scenario that you model and what happens in real life, because no models are perfect." - 00:46:45

Support Bionic Planet: https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet  Recent updates from the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) have pushed an old debate into public awareness, highlighting a perceived divide between emissions reductions and carbon removals. While SBTi's new guidelines focus on cutting emissions directly within company operations, some argue this creates a false dichotomy, downplaying the essential role of carbon removals in achieving net-zero goals. In reality, both strategies—reductions and removals—are not opposing forces but complementary tools needed to combat climate change effectively. In Episode 69 of Bionic Planet, I spoke with Eli Mitchell-Larsen, a self-described "carbon removal evangelist," who provides valuable insights into the various types of carbon removal methods, including nature-based, hybrid, and engineered solutions. I'm rerunning this episode here today as episode 111. The discussion begins with a focus on the importance of both reducing emissions now and removing existing gases from the atmosphere to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The host and guest emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach that includes a mix of nature-based solutions, such as afforestation and soil carbon sequestration, as well as engineered technologies like direct air capture. Throughout the episode, the host and guest explore the different categories of carbon removal, including biomass carbon removal and storage, geological storage, and unconventional methods like kelp farming. They highlight the importance of understanding the capture, utilization, and storage of carbon in evaluating the effectiveness and durability of each method. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of carbon removal technologies, with a focus on the need for continued research and development, government support, and deployment incentives to scale up promising solutions. The host and guest stress the urgency of accelerating the deployment of carbon removal strategies to address the escalating climate crisis. Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the complexities and challenges of carbon removal and reduction efforts, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to combatting climate change effectively. Through engaging dialogue and expert insights, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the critical role of nature-based and engineered solutions in achieving a sustainable future. Timestamps Introduction to Nature-Based Climate Solutions Discussion on the Importance of Carbon Removal Different Types of Carbon Removal Nature-Based Solutions and Soil Carbon Sequestration Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies Accelerating Deployment of Carbon Removal Technologies Cost Considerations and Government Support for Research and Development Quotes "The great tragedy of climate and biodiversity finance is that those who understand it most have their noses to the grindstone, while those who understand it least have their mouths to the megaphone." - 00:00:53-00:01:03 "The only thing we can all really agree on at this point is that to meet the climate challenge, we must eliminate those emissions that we can eliminate and then find ways to suck the rest out of the atmosphere, getting to net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest." - 00:02:52-00:03:03 "The fact that these tiny oscillations in the obliquity or the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit can kick into motion and then be magnified by the biological system and swing the climate into different states. It's just so fascinating. It's so powerful." - 00:10:48-00:10:58 "Earth. We broke it. We own it. And nothing is as it was. Not the trees. Not the seas. Not the forests, farms, or fields. And not the global economy that depends on all of these." - 00:06:07-00:06:18 "We know that the enemy is carbon and we know its ugly face. We should put a big fat price on it. And of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:05:56-00:06:07 "There's a group of us now who are proposing that the Earth has actually entered a new epoch, and that is the Anthropocene." - 00:05:56-00:06:07 "We can restore it. Make it better. Greener. More resilient. More sustainable. But how? Technology? Geoengineering? Are we doomed to live on a bionic planet? Or is nature herself the answer?" - 00:06:18-00:06:29 "The enemy is climate change and the we is the climate community. Those of us who've been in the trenches fighting this beast for decades in some cases." - 00:01:47-00:01:57 "I think carbon removal and storage, removing carbon and then storing it safely somewhere, it serves a couple purposes." - 00:12:51-00:13:01 "The more you do something, the more you build, the more the costs go down. And we've seen this happen with solar and wind." - 00:44:34-00:44:44

Support Bionic Planet: https://www.patreon.com/bionicplanet  Guests: Jim Pittman (https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamespittman/) Matt Orsagh (https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-orsagh-a1b8417/) Steve Rocco (https://www.linkedin.com/in/steverocco/) Books Referenced: Ecological Economics (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77985.Ecological_Economics?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZDNVmbxl5B&rank=1) The Limits to Growth (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/705418.Limits_to_Growth?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=1uh5jgBt1O&rank=1) The Web of Life (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26155239-web-of-life) Thinking in Systems (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3828902-thinking-in-systems?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=Q81KDn3a1D&rank=1) Energy and Civilization (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civilization?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=pCNkYwiE3S&rank=1) Sustainability is for Everyone (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19107270-sustainability-is-for-everyone?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=sX3sH8kdj5&rank=1) Less is More (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53328332-less-is-more?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_12) Donut Economics (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57410899-donut-economics?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_15) Technical Revolutions in Financial Capital (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/60509.Technological_Revolutions_and_Financial_Capital?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=TcwHjED9BR&rank=1) The End of Nature (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/199359.The_End_of_Nature?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_17) In Season 9, Episode 110 of Bionic Planet, titled "Ecological Economics, Systems Thinking, and the Limits to Growth," we delve into a thought-provoking discussion with ecological economists Jim Pittman, Matt Orsagh, and Steve Rocco. The episode explores the fundamental concepts of ecological economics, systems thinking, and the difference between overshoot and tipping points. The conversation begins with a reflection on the limitations of using GDP as a measure of a nation's health, as highlighted by economist Simon Kuznets, the inventor of GDP. The guests emphasize the importance of rethinking economic health and well-being, shifting from a focus on GDP growth to a more holistic approach that includes human and planetary health. The discussion then delves into the historical context of the environmental movement, referencing influential books like "The End of Nature" by Bill McKibben and "The Limits to Growth" published in 1972. The guests highlight the interconnectedness of human activities, climate change, biodiversity loss, and the urgent need to address these issues before reaching irreversible tipping points. The conversation also touches on the concept of degrowth, which proposes an equitable downscaling of production and consumption to enhance human well-being and ecological conditions. The guests emphasize the importance of transitioning from individual self-interest to collective optimization, drawing parallels with the behavior of slime molds in response to scarcity. The episode concludes with a call to action for reevaluating our current economic paradigm, shifting towards a more sustainable and equitable model that prioritizes health and well-being over GDP growth. The guests stress the urgency of addressing planetary boundaries, overshoot, and the impending tipping points that threaten the stability of our ecosystems. Overall, the episode provides a thought-provoking exploration of ecological economics, systems thinking, and the imperative need for transformative change to ensure a sustainable future for humanity and the planet. Timestamps Introduction to Ecological Economics and Systems Thinking Discussion on the Influence of Popular Books on Climate Change Awareness Evolution of Climate Change Discourse and Scientific Consensus Introduction to the Limits to Growth and Systems Modeling Discussion on the Flaws of GDP as an Indicator of Success Importance of Systems Thinking and Tipping Points Degrowth as a Response to Overshoot and Tipping Points Challenges and Opportunities in Transitioning to a Degrowth Paradigm The Role of Slime Molds in Understanding Resource Allocation The Urgency of Addressing Planetary Boundaries and Resource Scarcity The Need for Collective Action and Policy Changes in the Face of Environmental Challenges Reflections on the Evolution of Economic Thinking and the Path to Sustainable Development Quotes "Goals for more growth should specify of what and for what." - 00:00:23-00:00:34 "It's the difference between knowing that your two packs a day could very well give you cancer and hearing the doctor clear his throat and say, 'I've got something to tell you.'" - 00:01:06-00:01:17 "Degrowth is just the end result there. It's not like we want that. It's just like you need it because you've got to go on a diet." - 00:06:24-00:06:34 "We know that the enemy is carbon and we know it's ugly face. We should put a big fat price on it. And of course, add to that, drop the subsidies." - 00:07:16-00:07:26 "Earth Overshoot Day from the Global Footprint Network using the ecological footprint methodology." - 00:44:29-00:44:40 "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. And of course, it will stop. It's unsustainable." - 00:45:01-00:45:11 "We're using Earth as though we had 1.6 Earths to use. That's the consumption and the rate of resource use we're using." - 00:44:51-00:45:01 "Most of all, when proposing GDP as an indicator, Kuznets did not intend for it to be used in the way that we're using it now." - 00:46:21-00:46:32