This Week in Startups

Today’s show:
Cerebras just jacked its IPO range to $150–$160 a share, OpenAI bought a consulting firm to seed its $4 billion private-equity joint venture, and a startup in Oakland is electrolyzing magnesium out of seawater for one-third the going price. Alex Wilhelm and Jason Calacanis go deep with AI21 co-CEO Ori Goshen on why model orchestration, not bigger LLMs, will decide who wins enterprise AI.
The crew also covered the decline of OpenClaw, TikTok's new £3.99 ad-free tier, more entries in the live-show sidebar bounty, and had time for a little Off Duty before signing off.
Guest Links:
Ori Goshen on LinkedIn
AI21
Alex Grant on LinkedIn
Magrathea Metals

Timestamps:
0:00 Ori Goshen, CEO of AI21 joins the show
1:20 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
5:14 Why enterprises care about token cost optimization
6:01 Jamba as open-weight; Maestro as proprietary orchestration
10:08 LinkedIn Jobs - Hire right, the first time. Post your first job and get $100 off towards your job post at https://LinkedIn.com/twist
12:56 AI21 customer roster: FNAC, US tech giants, Israeli companies
19:01 Alex Grant, CEO of Magrathea Metals joins to discuss pulling magnesium from seawater
20:03 Live video of the Oakland pilot electrolyzer
20:10 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.
22:01 Magnesium as a "gateway metal" for aluminum, defense, aerospace
23:20 TETRA joint venture & the Evergreen Project in Arkansas
23:38 Series A close, JV economics: $3,000/ton vs. $7,000/ton market
29:10 Sidebar bounty update: Glass Sidebar (Oliver Choy) demo
30:47 Netsuite - Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://netsuite.com/twist
31:47 Sidebar bounty update: Sidecast (Patrick Hughes) demo
36:09 Reducing scope to "real-time fact checker only" for final round
37:24 Ro.co: Ro's insurance checker will let you know if your coverage includes GLP-1s for FREE. Go to https://Ro.co/Twist for your free insurance check.
39:07 Cerebras IPO: $115–$125 → $150–$160 per share
44:19 Will OpenAI's compute commitments to Cerebras actually get funded?
49:19 Fervo Energy IPO — venture-backed geothermal company going public
49:40 OpenAI Deployment Company + Tomoro acquisition explained
53:51 Anthropic's parallel $1.5B PE joint venture with Blackstone & Goldman
56:05 Why Jason thinks these PE spinouts are convoluted financial engineering
56:40 OpenClaw's decline + competition from Cowork, Perplexity, Grok
1:04:22 TikTok's £3.99 ad-free subscription launches in the UK
1:09:09 Knicks sweep 76ers — Jason's playoff predictions
1:11:24 Off-duty: "There Is No Antimemetics Division" by qntm
1:13:25 Off-duty: Fall of Civilizations podcast by Paul Cooper
1:16:37 States' rights, federalism, housing supply & closing thoughts
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Banks don’t want to hand over their data to AI labs. So David Moscatelli built a $250,000 box that runs AI on-prem. He already has 1,600 pre-orders. On today’s episode of TWiST, Jason and Alex sit down with the Go Abacus founder and Yanez's Jose Caldera to unpack how regulated industries are getting AI without the cloud, why Bittensor subnet 54 is incentivizing miners to attack identity systems, and why Cloudflare just laid off 20% of its workforce in the same week it raised guidance. The show closes with Jason explaining what it means to build an AI-first startup, and how workers can derisk their future employment!

Guest Links:

Go Abacus
Go1 direct link
David Moscatelli on LinkedIn
Yanez
Bittensor Subnet 54 on TAOstats
Jose Caldera on LinkedIn
LAUNCH Links:
Founder University
Founder University Japan application portal
News Links:
Cloudflare lays off 20% of its staff
Coinbase cuts 14% of its staff
Block post on how it is rebuilding its company
Block’s earnings, including its raised guidance
Anthropic’s massive upcoming funding round
WHOOP’s new on-demand clinicians
Stripe Atlas’s growth

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction: Jason in Brooklyn, Knicks playoffs
2:30 Go Abacus joins: AI infrastructure for regulated industries
3:25 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
4:00 The Go1: 2,000-user on-prem AI appliance
7:04 Pricing the Go1: How far does $250,000 go?
7:24 1,600 orders and the hardware delivery challenge
10:14 Sentry - New users can get $240 in free credits when they go to https://sentry.io/twist and use the code TWIST
20:23 Every.io - For all of your incorporation, banking, payroll, benefits, accounting, taxes or other back-office administration needs, visit https://every.io
27:22 Chicago tech scene and in-office culture
30:09 IM8 Health: Start feeling like your best self every day. Go to https://IM8health.com/twist and use the code TWiST to get a free welcome kit, five free travel sachets, and 10% off your order.
35:11 Yanez joins: How to prove personhood and uniqueness
38:32 How biometric capture and bio-keys work
40:05 Agent delegation: proving humans authorized AI agents
44:19 Bittensor Subnet 54 and incentivizing adversarial miners
47:11 Founder University Japan Cohort 2 applications open
49:15 Tech layoffs: Cloudflare cuts 20%, Coinbase cuts 14%, Block raises guidance
1:02:14 Anthropic's $50B round at $900B pre-money
1:04:22 WHOOP adds on-demand clinicians
1:06:42 Federalism, state-level regulation, and AI policy

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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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The top 5 U.S. venture firms captured 73% of all LP commits in Q1, and three veteran VCs say the math may have officially broken. Aleph's Michael Eisenberg argues we may be witnessing the end of a 60-year run for venture capital as a craft business. Maniv's Mike Granoff and Oxcart's Larry Covert push back, arguing it's merely splitting into two asset classes: "Consensus VC" and traditional VC. Either way, the implications for founders, LPs, and the next decade of innovation are enormous.
TWiST is back on the beat with a venture round table discussing investment concentration, the IPO drought, "bullshit ARR" in the AI era, AI gross margins, the U.S.-China chip war, the Iran conflict's impact on defense tech, the death of NATO and the rise of allied supply chains, why Tel Aviv's stock exchange could become the next NASDAQ, and a lightning round on each VC's favorite portfolio company. Let’s go!
Timestamps:

0:00 Intro + sponsor reads (Grasshopper Bank, PaperOS, LinkedIn Jobs)
0:58 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
2:13 Introductions: Eisenberg (Aleph), Granoff (Maniv), Covert (Oxcart)
3:57 The impact of rising venture capital concentration
6:43 "We may be witnessing the end of venture capital"
9:17 Consensus VC vs. Traditional VC
10:01 LinkedIn Jobs - Hire right, the first time. Post your first job and get $100 off towards your job post at https://LinkedIn.com/twist
11:48 Why mid-size firms beat the behemoths on founder access
19:35 Coining "Consensus Colossal Collaborative Capital" (CCCC)
20:03 AngelList's USVC retail VC fund — does it help mid-size funds?
20:18 PaperOS - Whether you're raising a round, launching a fund, or managing a venture portfolio, PaperOS can unlock simplicity and scale across your empire of capital, contracts, and companies. Claim your $10,000 credit at https://paperos.com/twist
23:27 Are there more breakout startups today than 5 years ago?
28:36 The "bullshit ARR" problem and AI gross margins
30:03 Grasshopper Bank - Time is money. Don't waste either. Go to https://grasshopper.bank/twist and get an exclusive $500 cash bonus just for opening an account.
32:08 Cursor's negative gross margins and the hyperscaler funding flywheel
33:06 Are we all electron constrained?
35:35 Are we headed for surge pricing on compute?
40:22 Will anything replace NVIDIA? NextSilicon, Hailo & Israel's chip stack
43:33 Distillation, small models, and Apple's edge advantage
46:38 Public trust in AI: should government mandate Waymo & FSD?
1:02:58 Defense tech: Saronic, Anduril & the coming defense M&A wave
1:06:35 The Iran war timeline & supply chain impact
1:18:52 Lightning round: Jiga, Divergent, Volaback, Firehawk, Harbinger
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Check out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Have you wanted to invest in venture capital alongside your 401k contributions, but struggled to find a way to place a bet? Search no more, for the AngelList team has created USVC, a new fund that will accept investments of as little as $500 from folks who lack accreditation. USVC’s Ankur Napgal swung by the show to chat about investment strategies, access, fees, and just how illiquid the venture-like vehicle will prove to be.
Jason and Alex were then joined by Jon Durbin, core contributor at Chutes, and Yash Goenka, co-founder and CEO of Humwork. Chutes is the most valuable Bittensor subnet, focused on aggregating GPUs to offer trustless AI compute. Humwork wants to help bring a human into your agentic workflow to unstick your agent when it runs into a hitch. The show closes with a news lightning round — enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro + Plaud AI sponsor read (Jason demos the NotePin S)
2:06 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
3:50 Episode overview: USVC, Chutes, Humwork
7:41 USVC structure: $500 min, no accreditation, quarterly redemptions
10:28 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://northwestregisteredagent.com/twist
11:39 Fee structure breakdown: 1% mgmt fee, ~2.5% net expense ratio
15:41 USVC portfolio: xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Crusoe, Vercel
16:17 Strategy: 1/3 emerging managers, 1/3 growth, 1/3 secondaries
19:00 $1B cap and path to expanding the fund
20:33 Vanta - Compliance and security shouldn't be a deal-breaker for startups to win new business. Vanta makes it easy for companies to get a SOC 2 reports fast. Get $1,000 off for a limited time at https://www.vanta.com/twist
28:00 What is sovereign compute? Permissionless GPU networks explained
30:10 Render - Find out why 5 million developers are already using the all-in-one cloud platform, Render. Go to https://render.com/twist and apply for the Render Startup Program to get $500-$100,000 in free credits, depending on your stage and backers.
44:53 Usage history: 160B tokens/day peak, free-to-paid transition
46:41 GPU pricing: from $0.77/hr to $3.50/hr as shortage bites
49:13 DeepSeek censorship demo: Taiwan test on DeepSeek chat
57:27 Permissionless supply curves: Uber/Airbnb analogy for induced demand
59:20 Yash Goenka, co-founder of Humwork (YC S26)
1:00:49 Lightning Round: Ryan Cohen wants to buy eBay — Jason's hot take
1:12:36 Lightning Round: Cerebras IPO update ($27–36B valuation range)
1:14:05 Lightning Round: Spirit Airlines / JetBlue / M&A regulation debate
1:19:10 OFF-DUTY: Star Wars: Maul - Shadow Lord
1:32:57 Alex's OFF-DUTY: Captain of Industry
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Check out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
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This Week In Startups is made possible by:
Pilot - https://pilot.com/twist
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Today’s show:
An AI agent named Valerie is running a real vending machine in San Francisco — setting prices, ordering inventory, managing a bank account, and posting to Instagram. And it's not just a stunt. We’re getting an early look at the future of one-agent companies. There’s still work to do to help agents ease into the economy, potentially opening up new startup opportunities.
Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm cover a stacked docket: Christian van der Henst demos the Valerie AI vending machine powered by OpenClaw; Robert Myers, CEO of Manifold Labs, breaks down Targon, a confidential GPU compute marketplace running on Bittensor Subnet 4; Jason calls Bitcoin "played out;" Alex is impressed by Anthropic's stunning $900 billion upcoming valuation; and the guys discuss Big Tech's accelerating CapEx spend, Chinese AI models in Congress crosshairs, and the NBA Playoffs.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro & sponsor reads (Pilot, Shopify, Grasshopper Bank)
1:06 Christian van der Henst: Valerie the AI vending machine demo

4:28 Legal structure: Giving an AI agent business ownership via trust
7:23 Where agents can and can't operate today
10:10 Grasshopper Bank: Time is money. Don't waste either. Go to https://grasshopper.bank/twist and get an exclusive $500 cash bonus just for opening an account.
11:48 AI café in Stockholm running on agents
18:21 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
19:05 Robert Myers, Manifold Labs: Targon & Bittensor Subnet 4 interview
20:21 What is Bittensor? An "incubator with 128 subnets"
21:08 Shopify: Turn those What If's into sales with the ecommerce platform powering millions of businesses. Sign up for your $1-per-month trial today at https://shopify.com/twist
25:21 Pricing, utilization caps, and why GPUs are sold out
26:38 Who's using Targon? Customers, use cases, and the mom-and-pop data center argument
30:06 Pilot: Focus on your product, let Pilot handle your bookkeeping. Pilot provides the most reliable accounting, CFO, and tax services for startups and small businesses. Head to https://pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
35:07 Jason explains the annotated.com vision — 15 years in the making
39:11 Polymarket: Will Anthropic flip Bitcoin by Dec 31?
40:29 Jason's Bitcoin bear case: "It's played out. No incremental buyers."
46:05 MicroStrategy / Strategy updates
52:37 AI compute demand vs. the fiber overbuild analogy
55:55 Congress pressuring startups over Chinese AI models (DeepSeek, Moonshot)
57:11 A16z on the geopolitical risk of Chinese AI models
1:00:08 Reflection AI — America's open source AI champion (or lack thereof)
1:01:26 Off Duty: Knicks blow out Atlanta Hawks 140–89, Jason goes road-tripping
Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com
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Follow Lon:
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Follow Jason:
X: https://twitter.com/Jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
Check out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
Follow TWiST:
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