Talking About Latin America

Ahead of a likely January 14 Senate vote on the Venezuela War Powers Resolution, here's the audio accompanying a video explainer digging into
(a) scenarios that could lead to "boots on the ground" and an open-ended military mission in Venezuela, and
(b) the constellation of armed groups that U.S. personnel might have to confront if those scenarios become reality.

The U.S. military operation to extract Nicolás Maduro has changed little for Venezuelan migrants. Updates about smuggling and stranded migrants in Mexico. Updates about new border barriers.

This is a variation of a talk that I give a few times per year. (It's usually shorter.) I haven't written it up as a publication yet.

The gist: it's perfectly possible to protect people from crime without locking up 3 percent of a country's male population, blowing up civilian boats on the high seas, and dismantling democracy.



Long experience in Latin America shows that short-term fixes, especially anything that conflates organized crime groups with insurgents or "terrorists," are a dead end.

Most people who study crime and governance agree, in broad terms, on the long-term vision for protecting people. There's no substitute for a functioning security sector with a strong justice system and a high probability that anyone who colludes with organized crime will face accountability. That vision includes extensive oversight, transparency, and a laser focus on suffocating organized crime by severing its corrupt ties to government and other power centers.

But that's a long-term solution. People feeling besieged by crime don't have the patience for that. So what can leaders and societies do to make people feel safer in the short term?

The answer isn't as simplistic as "declare a state of emergency and lock up anyone who looks suspicious." Instead, a rights-respecting, democracy-preserving short-term security strategy has many fragments and moving parts. Here is a survey of what it takes. There's no other choice.

Constructive comments and suggestions, especially on the "short term" conundrum, are very welcome. Thanks for listening.

I'm trying something new here: a full-length video version of this week's U.S.-Mexico Border Update.
This week's WOLA Border Update covers developments in the military's growing role at the U.S.-Mexico border, reports of deteriorating and inhuman conditions at ICE detention facilities, and updates from Mexico.

This is audio accompanying [a video presentation](https://youtu.be/0v7akdHu40A) that walks through what the data tells us is happening at the U.S.-Mexico border, why so few people are migrating amid Trump's crackdown, and whether numbers are likely to stay low.
 
"Keeping people from migrating by withdrawing rights and instilling terror" is not a policy success, just because "numbers are down." After running through the latest data, this presentation looks at the dangers—including dangers to U.S. democracy— of what is happening now, and the outlines of a far better, rights-respecting, sustainable approach.