Climate Risk Podcast

• Flawed Models, Fragile Systems: The Risks in Energy & Food Policy

  Hear from Prof. Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, as we dive into the role of models in shaping policy, and particularly their weaknesses.  Models are not neutral – they reflect the assumptions, values, and agendas of those that create and use them. Using the energy system as an example, models can (and have been) used to protect the status quo. In part, this is because many of the models are based on the notions of ‘equilibrium’ and so they simply can’t cope with major structural changes, such as the current energy transition. But it can be difficult for policy makers to switch towards models that are arguably more suited to the job. So, what can we do to supplement the models? One very effective approach is to adopt a structured process of expert elicitation, where we use the insights of experts to uncover vulnerabilities and risks. To bring it to life, we explore how this has worked in the case of the food system. We discuss: The role that models play in shaping energy policy, and how they can lead us astray; How expert judgment and insight can help address model blind spots; and Finally, what are the key lessons for risk professionals? To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links from today’s discussion: Global Sustainability Institute homepage: https://www.aru.ac.uk/global-sustainability-institute-gsi Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency Report: https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2025/jan/16-jan-25-planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/ GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Erica Thompson: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-power-and-pitfalls-of-models-in-climate-risk-management Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. Aled Jones, Director, Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University Aled’s work in climate finance was recognised by California and he has received a key to the city of North Little Rock, USA. He is a Co-Investigator on the ESRC Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, the AHRC Debating Nature’s Value network, the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition project and leads the BBSRC Backcasting to Achieve Food Resilience in the UK project. He was lead author on the seminal report on resource constraints to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2013, was made an Honorary Fellow in 2018 and currently chairs their Biodiversity Working Party.

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• Beyond Climate: A Risk Professionals’ Guide to the Biodiversity COPs

  Hear from Eva Zabey, CEO of Business for Nature, as we dive into the complex landscape of environmental diplomacy, and the role of business in halting and reversing biodiversity loss. We know that our economies depend on nature. But with biodiversity loss and climate change both putting pressure on ecosystems, businesses and financial institutions are facing increasing risks. In recognition of this, there is action on the policy front, and with global biodiversity agreements taking shape, the question isn’t whether firms should act – but how they can do so effectively. That’s why in this episode, we dive into the role of business and finance in halting and reversing biodiversity loss, along with some practical steps firms can take to integrate nature into their strategies. We discuss: The evolving policy landscape, including key takeaways from recent biodiversity COPs; The challenges financial firms face in measuring their impacts and dependencies on nature; and The tools and frameworks that can help firms take action. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links from today’s discussion: Business for Nature: https://www.businessfornature.org/ Nigel Topping on the GARP Climate Risk Podcast: https://www.garp.org/podcast/the-cop28-survival-guide-how-it-works-and-what-to-expect Global Biodiversity Framework: https://www.cbd.int/gbf Science Based Targets Network (SBTN): https://sciencebasedtargets.org/about-us/sbtn Nature Action 100: https://www.natureaction100.org/ Finance for Biodiversity Foundation: https://www.financeforbiodiversity.org/ Speaker’s Bio(s) Eva Zabey, CEO, Business for Nature Eva leads Business for Nature, a global coalition aiming to unify the business voice to call for action to reverse nature loss and restore the planet’s vital natural systems on which economies, wellbeing and prosperity depend. Previously, Eva led multiple projects at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) for 15 years, including leading work on natural, social and human capital measurement, valuation for business decision-making towards integrated performance management, and reporting for investors. She led the development of the Natural Capital Protocol on behalf of the Natural Capital Coalition, as well as the establishment of the new Social and Human Capital Coalition. Eva holds a bachelor’s degree in Ecology from Imperial College London and a master’s degree in Environmental Management from the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). In 2012, she completed a University of London on-line course on Environmental Valuation Techniques and delivered a TEDx Talk on valuing nature in business.

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• The CSRD Effect: How Regulation is Elevating Nature Risk

  Hear from Sebastian Leape, CEO of Natcap, as we explore how regulation such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) is pushing nature risk to the top of firms’ sustainability agendas. At GARP, we’ve been benchmarking financial firms’ climate and nature risk management capabilities since 2019, and we see that nature is lagging climate risk by several years. But things are changing, and part of that change is driven by new regulations – such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive or CSRD – where firms are being asked to report on a range of sustainability issues in a lot more depth than they’re used to. Given the complexity, this episode provides a deep dive into some of the challenges facing firms. We discuss: Why nature is lagging climate in both understanding and action; The key emerging nature-related regulations and how they fit together; and Some useful ways for firms to begin tackling these issues. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Speaker’s Bio(s) Sebastian Leape, CEO, Natcap Seb leads the team at Natcap, a nature intelligence firm on a mission to embed nature into business decision making by helping companies measure, report and act on their nature related impacts and dependencies. Seb’s career has been focused on trying to make our economic system more sustainable. He has worked as a sustainability consultant at McKinsey, helping businesses and governments define and embed climate and nature goals, and also as a policy advisor, teacher, and researcher.  

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• What We Learned About Climate and Nature Risk in 2024

  Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the latest season of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2025, the GARP Climate Risk Podcast kicks off the new year with a retrospective on the past 12 months, reviewing the key themes and insights that emerged during 2024.  From soil scientists to policymakers, financial experts to climate modelers, we’ve welcomed a diverse range of guests to share their expertise. This episode revisits some of the key learnings from these conversations and highlights the invaluable advice our guests have shared with risk professionals as we navigate the path to a net-zero and nature-positive future. Today’s episode will delve into: Why we need to think about climate and nature together What we learned about the transition to net zero The potential global temperature increases we face The modelling underpinning all these insights To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr  For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Centre: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected]   Speaker’s Bio(s) Jo Paisley is President of the GARP Risk Institute, the thought leadership arm of GARP. Set up in early 2018, the Institute works across all risk disciplines, with Jo’s focus to date on climate risk management and scenario analysis, stress testing and operational resilience. Her career began at the Bank of England where she worked in a variety of roles across macroeconomics, statistics, supervision and risk. Her last role was as a Director of the Supervisory Risk Specialists Division within the Prudential Regulation Authority, where she was heavily involved in the design and execution of the UK’s first concurrent stress test in 2014. She left the Bank in 2015 and joined HSBC as their Global Head of Stress Testing. She has also worked as an independent stress testing consultant, advising firms on how to get the most value out of stress testing. Dr. Maxine Nelson is a Senior Vice President at the GARP Risk Institute, GARP’s research and thought leadership arm, where she focusses on climate financial risk management.  She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide-ranging variety of roles, including Global Head of Wholesale Risk Analytics and Head of Capital Planning at HSBC, significantly expanding counterparty credit risk management at the UK Financial Services Authority during the last financial crisis, leading the credit risk team at KPMG London, senior credit risk consultant at Oliver Wyman, and embedding operational risk analytics globally at National Australia Bank. Maxine has a degree in mechanical engineering and a PhD characterizing how best to apply probability theory to real world problems.

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  39:11
• Modelling Economic Complexity: Insights for Risk Professionals

  Hear from Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford, as we explore new modelling approaches designed to better capture the complex and chaotic nature of our climate and economy. We spend a lot of time on this podcast covering the transition to a low carbon economy, which will be driven largely by policies and technological innovation. These policies tend to be based on insights from economics. And our view on the pace of innovation is often informed by expert judgement. But traditional economic models often oversimplify the world, leading to poor policy design. And we tend to underestimate the exponential rate of technological change, making us unduly pessimistic about the transition.  Today’s guest has thought a great deal about both these issues. That’s why in today’s episode we’ll be diving into the world of complexity economics and agent-based modelling, which can help us better navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the transition. We’ll discuss: How agent-based models are very well suited to modelling complex, non-linear systems, such as the economy; How past innovation cycles can provide invaluable insights on what we might expect to see in the transition; and What the models tell us about the appropriate speed of the transition to a net zero world. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: [email protected] Links from today’s discussion: Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357/making-sense-of-chaos-by-farmer-j-doyne/9780241201978 Santa Fe Institute’s Office of Applied Complexity: https://www.santafe.edu/applied-complexity/office GARP Climate Risk Podcast with Simon Sharpe: https://www.garp.org/podcast/five-times-faster-cr-240321 GARP Climate Risk Podcast with David Stainforth: https://www.garp.org/podcast/predicting-climate-future-cr-241128 Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. J. Doyne Farmer, Professor of Complex Systems Science, University of Oxford J. Doyne Farmer is Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modelling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.

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