The Red Line

Previously dismissed as a niche academic concept and a talking point for Central Asia specialists, the Middle Corridor has re-emerged as one of the most discussed trade routes in Eurasia amid war, sanctions, and growing instability across the world’s maritime chokepoints. Running from western China through Central Asia, across the Caspian, through the Caucasus and on toward Europe, the corridor promises a route that bypasses Russia, avoids Iran, and reduces dependence on vulnerable sea lanes through Hormuz, Suez, and the Red Sea. Yet behind the hype lies a much messier reality. The route is fragmented, expensive, capacity-constrained, and still plagued by border delays, port bottlenecks, gauge breaks, and political risk stretching from Kazakhstan to Georgia. But as China searches for strategic redundancy, Europe looks for alternatives to the Russian route, and Central Asia seeks deeper regional integration and greater leverage between Moscow and Beijing, the question remains: is the Middle Corridor a viable new artery of Eurasian trade, or merely an overpriced hedge for a more dangerous world? Our panel of experts examines the economics, the geopolitics, and the hard limits of the route in 2026.

- S. Frederick Starr (Central Asia -Caucasus Institute)

- Bruce Pannier (Foreign Policy Research Institute)

- Peter Leonard (CAPS Unlock) 

- Eric Rudenshiold (Caspian Policy Center)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:20

PART II - 23:08

PART III - 50:12

PART IV - 1:03:39

Outro - 1:23:54

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Once hailed as a beacon of democratic reform in Southeast Asia, Myanmar has devolved into a fractured state defined by a brutal, multi-front civil war following the 2021 military coup. The Junta clings to power in the central cities through terror and forced conscription, while a patchwork of resistance forces controls the periphery but struggles with donor fatigue and ammunition shortages. Yet, following the shockwaves of Operation 1027 and the rise of a narcotics-and-scam-fueled war economy, the conflict has shifted. China, the region’s hesitant kingmaker, is now applying direct pressure on both sides to secure its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. With the country effectively split and neither side possessing the strength to deliver a knockout blow, the question remains: is Myanmar destined to fracture like Yugoslavia, or can a unified state still emerge from the ashes? Our panel of experts examines the stalled frontlines, Beijing’s evolving strategy, and the grim reality of who, if anyone, can actually govern the nation in 2026.

On the panel this week:

- Zachary Abuza (National Defence University)

- Derek Mitchell (CSIS)

- Jason Tower (GI-TOC) 

- Steve Ross (Stimson Center)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 02:15

PART II - 34:55

PART III - 1:01:52

PART IV - 1:15:09

Outro - 135:15

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Once the spearhead of Allied victory in World War II and the backbone of nuclear deterrence in the early Cold War, strategic bombers are often dismissed today as relics of a bygone era. Yet three powers, the United States, Russia, and China, continue to field formidable bomber fleets. Washington employs them for precision strikes in contested airspace across the globe, Moscow for launching missile salvos into theatres like Syria and Ukraine, and Beijing as a key secondary strike asset. Now, with all three preparing to unveil next-generation platforms that promise capabilities well beyond their current fleets, the question is clear: how will these aircraft shape the battlefields of 2025, and which nation will bring its new bomber to the skies first? Our panel of experts examines the evolving role of strategic bombers and what these upcoming platforms could mean for the balance of power in the air.

On the panel this week:

- Col. David Gordon (United States Air Force)

- Valeriy Akimenko (Conflict Studies Research Centre)

- Bill Sweetman (Airpower Consultant)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:01

PART II - 27:40

PART III - 46:40

Outro - 1:02:27

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Cyprus sits at a persistent impasse, divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish-backed administration in the north. Despite decades of negotiations, reunification remains elusive, and the island has quietly become one of the most militarised borders in Europe, patrolled by UN peacekeepers, flanked by British bases, and overshadowed by tens of thousands of Turkish troops. While Ankara now frames Cyprus as a lower strategic priority, its military presence on the island remains substantial, and recent tensions over gas exploration and border infrastructure suggest the status quo may be more fragile than it appears. So why does Turkey still maintain such a significant footprint in Northern Cyprus? How stable is the current arrangement? And what would happen if a local incident triggered a wider escalation? To unpack these questions and assess the island’s geopolitical future, we turn to our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

- James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University)

- Rich Outzen (The Atlantic Council)

- Matthew Bryza (Straife)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:27

PART II - 26:10

PART III - 46:03

Outro - 57:25

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Abkhazia stands at a critical juncture, caught between its historical dependence on Russia and the uncertain allure of reconciliation with Georgia. Long overshadowed by Moscow's influence, recent years have seen the territory's population increasingly frustrated with Russia's heavy-handed presence, just as Tbilisi tentatively begins exploring pathways to re-engagement. Could growing anti-Russian sentiment signal a geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus? Will Abkhazia tilt back toward Georgia, upsetting decades of frozen conflict dynamics? And why, despite mounting tensions and economic costs, does Moscow remain committed to maintaining its grip on this disputed strip of Black Sea coastline? To unpack these questions and understand the future of Abkhazia, we turn to our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:

- Laura Linderman (Central Asia-Caucasus Institute)

- Beka Bajelidze (Institute for War and Peace)

- Thomas de Waal (Carnegie Europe)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:49

PART II - 30:49

PART III - 1:00:15

Outro - 1:21:46

Follow the show on https://x.com/TheRedLinePod

Follow Michael on https://x.com/MikeHilliardAusSupport the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast

Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord

For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
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