The Real Investment Show Podcast

What really matters for markets in 2026—and why are most forecasts focused on the wrong metrics? Lance Roberts visits with Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA, to examine the structural changes inside today's markets that are reshaping price discovery, volatility, and risk. From the rise of passive investing and ETF dominance to the growing disconnect between fundamentals and flows, the mechanics of how markets trade have changed dramatically. We explore why small-cap and mid-cap stocks remain the most economically sensitive indicators, how ETFs can pull sellers higher during inflows—and why that dynamic reverses dangerously during outflows. We also examine declining market elasticity, the limitations of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and why traditional analysis is increasingly ignored. Beyond markets, we connect these shifts to investor behavior, financial nihilism, generational risk-taking, and the unintended consequences of policy intervention. From the "Bank of Dad" to systemic fund imbalances, this discussion reframes what a useful market outlook should actually focus on heading into 2026. This is not a prediction. It is a framework for understanding risk, structure, and consequences. 0:00 INTRO 2:02 - Outlook for 2026 - What's the important metric? 6:22- Small-cap, Mid-cap stocks are most economically sensitive 8:32 - The importance of Understanding What You Own 11:09 - The Issue of ETF's - Dragging the Sellers higher 13:13 - The Theory of Passive Investing 15:16 - The Composition of Trading has Changed 17:52 - How to correct an over valued stock 19:25 - The Problem with Passive Investing - what happens when investors start selling indexed ETF's (the Bigger the Company, the LESS Elastic the Demand Response) 23:55 - The Efficient market Hypothesis 25:32 - What Makes for a Useful Market Forecast - The market Can't Crash?? 27:14 - Systemic Issues within the Market 31:14 - What Would Michael Green Do? 33:18 - The Death of Analysis & Fund Imbalances 37:13 - The Next Generation of Investors and Risk-taking 39:17 - The Poverty Line & Young Investors 43:34 - When the Government Gets Involved 46:04 - Making Choices - Luxuries vs Necessities 49:18 - Financial Education, Financial Stability, & Financial Choices: Financial Nihilism 53:16 - The Bank of Dad & Soft Society 1:00:58 - Actions Have Consequences 1:05:30 - How to Reach Michael Green 1:06:33 - The Problem with The Problem Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- You can read Michael Green's blog, "Yes...I Give a Fig," here: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQSiR6fxLGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Social Security Reform: Expansion or Cuts?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQSiR6fxLGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook2026 #PassiveInvesting #ETFMarketStructure #FinancialNihilism #MarketRisk #MichaelGreen

Congress is debating major changes to Social Security—and the outcome could mean benefit expansion or future cuts. With trust fund shortfalls projected by 2033, lawmakers have introduced a wave of bills aimed at increasing benefits, changing cost-of-living calculations, and redefining how and when Americans claim Social Security. Richard Rosso breaks down the key Social Security reform proposals currently circulating in Congress, what they would change, why most face steep political hurdles, and what these debates mean for retirement planning in the years ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Social Security's Deadline for Survival 3:12 - The Importance of Checking Your SS Statement 5:57 - Lawmakers Looking at Social Security Reform 7:21 - Why Waiting is Worth it 10:48 - Safeguarding Social Security Act 13:35 - Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act 15:04 - Boosting Benefits & COLA's Act 18:53 - Protecting & Preserving SS Act 20:27 - The Claiming Age Clarity Act 22:14 - The Overall Theme of SS Reform 27:28 - Figure Out Your Own Situation Hosted by Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQSiR6fxLGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Silver's Surge: Bubble or Fundamentals?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbdac54510I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SocialSecurity #RetirementPlanning #Congress #COLA #RetirementIncome

Can we classify Silver as a microbubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz take a disciplined, valuation-driven look at silver through the lens of post-2020 micro-bubble cycles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Oil Prices Slide, CPI/PPI Moderate 8:15 - Index Performance Comparisons 14:33 - PPI/CPI Increase rate Cut Expectations 17:19 - The Risks of Reflation 20:48 - GDP Predictions? 23:08 - The Saga of the Silver Bubble 26:18 - Meme Stocks & SPAC's 29:57 - What's the Narrative in Silver? 31:41 - Silver, Gold, & Commodity Supply-Demand Imbalances 34:03 - Unlike God, Silver is a Critical Mineral 36:44 - Speculation in Silver? 38:25 - Portfolio Positioning & Position Sizing 47:19 - Don't Take Advice from the Guy that's Selling 48:17 - Market Behavior Commentary 49:54 - Markets' Rotation into Anything that's not a Mag-7 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbdac54510I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "Q & A Wednesday - Your Money & Market Questions Answered " here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAYfTLVka6w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #SmallCapStocks #MarketBreadth #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy#SilverMarket #PreciousMetals #MarketBubbles #InvestorRisk #MacroInvesting

Markets are quietly broadening beneath the surface. While mega-cap stocks continue to dominate headlines, money is rotating into small caps, mid caps, value stocks, and even international equities. The S&P Equal Weight Index just set a new all-time high—even as the S&P 500 lagged—highlighting improving market breadth. Small caps and mid caps have closed part of their long-standing performance gap with large caps, but meaningful differences remain. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are still trailing the S&P 500, and small caps remain highly sensitive to economic slowdowns. Roughly 40% of the small-cap universe is unprofitable, making today's valuation enthusiasm especially vulnerable if growth expectations disappoint. Value stocks, defensive names, and select international markets are participating, suggesting this rally is not as narrow as many headlines imply. However, rotation does not eliminate risk—it shifts it. Investors should be cautious chasing economically sensitive areas at elevated valuations and remain disciplined with diversification, rebalancing, and risk management as market leadership evolves. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRotation #SmallCapStocks #MarketBreadth #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy

Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your real-time questions directly from our YouTube live chat window, and break down today's most important money, market, investing, and retirement topics. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Big Banks' Earnings & Trading Revenue 4:00 - Markets Decline off All-time Highs 9:05 - Fun with Charts - Understanding Market Dynamics 16:17 - Contributing to Roth in Retirement? 20:27 - SimpleVisor Alerts 21:10 - Determining Percentage of Assets to Own vs Sell 26:15 - Thoughts on Trump Plan to use Retirement Money for Home Purchases 30:01 - You never Own Your House 33:48 - Sartorial Advice from Chat Room 34:50 - Target Allocations & Market Valuations 40:18 - 10% Cap on Credit Card Interest 43:08 - The Problem with Checks to Households & UBI 47:10 - A Candid Critique of the Service Industry 48:18 - Why MasterCard Stock Dropped on CC News 49:33 - The Problem with Crony Capitalism 49:52 - Defense Contractor Stock Buys Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAYfTLVka6w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT4dfHthMSY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Compress Near All-time Highs," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3p7ti6VnJQI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #InvestingQuestions #PersonalFinance #RetirementPlanning