The Real Investment Show Podcast

With earnings season underway and markets stretched, conditions suggest rising market turbulence as price discovery accelerates. JPMorgan Chase kicked things off with a technical earnings miss after an extraordinary multi-year rally, highlighting how stretched both individual stocks and the broader market have become. While markets remain on a buy signal and continue to hover near all-time highs, deviations from key moving averages and increasingly overbought conditions suggest a near-term pullback would be healthy—and not unexpected. Financial heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and BlackRock remain central to the AI buildout narrative as capital providers, which could continue to support the sector longer term. With earnings estimates having been lowered ahead of this reporting season, beat rates should remain favorable. Investors can remain long equities, but this is also an opportune moment to rebalance, take partial profits, and manage risk. Any volatility-driven pullback may present a more attractive entry point for the next leg of the rally. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dcg2Jj73T5U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-outlook-for-2026-copy/ "DOJ Investigates Powell: Implications For Fed Policy?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/doj-investigates-powell-implications-for-fed-policy/ --- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsSeason #MarketVolatility #StockMarketOutlook #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy

Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface. Lance Roberts reviews key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing. We also examine the technical backdrop for the S&P 500, key support and resistance levels, inflation and labor market catalysts ahead, and why risk management may matter more than return chasing in 2026. If your objective is to protect capital, reduce portfolio stress, and improve long-term outcomes, these investor lessons are essential. For ongoing market commentary and portfolio strategy, visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Jerome Powell in Hot Water 5:21 - Bracing for Market Volatility 10:05 - Economic Summit Preview 11:45 - Lessons We Should Have Learned in 2025 15:00 - Leave Narratives Behind 18:16 - Volatility is not Risk 21:43 - Cash has Value 26:12 - Earnings Drive Long Term Returns 30:16 - Your Plan Must Survive Stress 33:32 - Losing All Your Capital is a Problem - The Landman Example 38:18 - Thinking Ahead Instead of Looking Behind 41:58 - Earnings Estimates Preview 44:46 - Betting on the Economy Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIPCj5xEG0c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-outlook-for-2026-copy/ "2026 Earnings Outlook: Another Year Of Optimism" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-earnings-outlook-another-year-of-optimism/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Big Beautiful Tax Breaks - 7 Changes for the 2026 Tax Season," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dEwx5cGCZw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility Risk Rising," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9FUNPzVZAg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #StockMarketUpdate #RiskManagement #EarningsSeason #InvestingStrategy #InvestorLessons #2026MarketOutlook #RiskManagement #PortfolioStrategy #LongTermInvesting

Markets closed at new highs but are flashing short-term overbought signals. Unexpected weekend headlines around a potential investigation tied to the Fed introduced a volatility catalyst markets were not pricing in—especially at elevated levels. While the issue itself is unlikely to become a long-term concern, surprises are often what trigger near-term selling pressure. With earnings season approaching, volatility risk is more likely to come from corporate results than headlines. We discuss why managing risk, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for routine pullbacks matter when markets are stretched, what a test of the 20-day moving average could mean, and why 2–3% downside moves are normal—not alarming. This is a timely opportunity to review positioning, hedge volatility, and ensure portfolios are aligned with current market conditions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9FUNPzVZAg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-outlook-for-2026-copy/ --- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #StockMarketUpdate #RiskManagement #EarningsSeason #InvestingStrategy

The 2026 tax season is shaping up to look very different—especially for retirees, near-retirees, and late-career workers. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down some major tax changes tied to the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and recent retirement legislation that could materially impact your tax planning strategy. From higher standard deductions and new age-based write-offs to expanded SALT limits, auto-loan interest deductions, and larger 401(k) catch-up contributions, these changes create both opportunities and planning traps. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Big D in the OBBB 3:52 - Higher Standard Deductions 6:57 - Withholding Adjustments 10:25 - Higher SALT Deduction 12:33 - Automobile Loan Interest Deduction 15:29 - Larger Catch-up Contributions 19:15 - Tipped Workers & Qualifying Jobs 23:15 - To Itemize or Not to Itemize 23:56 - Getting Ready not to File Tax Returns 25:06 - Looking at Roth Options 30:52 - 2026 Economic Summit 33:14 - Roth Conversion Deadlines 35:43 - YouTube Poll Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dEwx5cGCZw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQA10SrDk3s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Sector Rotation Quietly Begins," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6zc2wXLn5o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #2026Taxes #TaxPlanning #RetirementPlanning #IRSUpdates #FinancialEducation

Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as "reserve management," the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks. We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index level twelve months in advance. If you are an investor trying to navigate uncertainty without relying on headlines or optimistic forecasts, this discussion provides the framework you need to think more clearly about markets in 2026. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Betting on Anything, Healthcare Subsidies, HSA's, & Housing Bans 8:15 - Roll-of in Markets 12:42 - Guessing at 2026 Markets 20:35 - Think About the Known; Consider the Unknown 22:59 - Quantitative Easing & Chart Crime 25:09 - The Powell Exit & Midterm Elections 28:21 - Will Europe Keep Dumping Money into US Markets? 29:55 - AI Infrastructure Boom & New Technologies 32:02 - Our Process for Managing Market Rotations 35:14 - SCOTUS' Tariff Ruling & Trump's Plan-B 37:10 - Return of the Yen Carry Trade 38:50 - Smart Money Has Already Considered the Risks 42:08 - Don't Get Too Comfortable with Narratives Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQA10SrDk3s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "2026 Forecast: Tis The Season For Wild Guesses" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-forecast-tis-the-season-for-wild-guesses/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Sector Rotation Quietly Begins," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6zc2wXLn5o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGgxAtaZIOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketUpdate #SectorRotation #StockMarketNews #EconomicData #MarketVolatility #MarketOutlook2026 #StockMarketRisk #InvestorDiscipline #FedPolicy #ValuationsMatter