The Real Investment Show Podcast

The S&P 500 broke above its 20-day moving average and is now within striking distance of an all-time high. After weeks of consolidation, momentum is improving, and a new buy signal could put record highs back in play. Technology and semiconductor stocks are helping lead the move, with the Nasdaq and Technology sector challenging their previous highs. But another development may be taking shape beneath the surface: rotation into beaten-down areas of the market. Financials and Basic Materials have been under considerable pressure, leaving both sectors oversold and near important support levels. If investors begin taking profits from recently strong Technology stocks, could money rotate into these lagging sectors? Lance Roberts looks at the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Technology, Financials, and Basic Materials, and explains what the latest momentum and moving-average signals may suggest for markets in the days ahead. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/O5eqwiEF0dY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #TechnologyStocks #Investing

Earnings expectations can drive stock prices higher, but what happens when corporate profits fail to meet those expectations? Lance Roberts examines earnings mean reversion, why Wall Street estimates can become overly optimistic, and what falling short of projected earnings could mean for stock valuations and market returns; what is the relationship between earnings growth and economic growth, how expectations become embedded in stock prices, and why elevated valuations can make earnings disappointments more consequential. Importantly, what should investors watch as earnings estimates change, and how can portfolio risk be managed when expectations and fundamentals begin to diverge? 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Rebalancing Coming; The History of Pensions (now over-funded) 3:51 - Friday's Options Expiry: Volatile Markets 4:37 - Markets Continue to do what they've been doing - Nothing 7:24 - Be Cautious with Allocations 8:03 - Volatility Remains Compressed 10:29 - Website & Radio History 13:50 - Goldman Earnings Estimates - What it doesn't show 17:28 - Why Most Narratives Never Matter - Earnings Don't Always Go Up 21:02 - (Chart) S&P Earnings vs Long Term Trend 22:55 - (Chart) S&P 500 Profit Margins Have Re-Based Higher 23:57 - The Apple iPhone Example 27:40 - The Earnings Boom Runs on One Budget (chart) 29:35 - (Chart) The Consensus Already Forecasts a 2027 Cliff 30:55 - A Narrative Worth Paying Attention to: What if spending tapers off? 32:45 - K-Shaped Economy tease 34:07 - Fed Rate Hike Recap - Where the Fed Rate Hike Reaches... 38:52 - The Fed's Dot Plot Signal 41:51 - Expectations vs Reality & Fed Irony (chart) 42:48 - Who Performs Best When Fed Rates Rise (chart) 43:37 - Portfolio Action Plan Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Pressure Is Building," https://youtu.be/PBwgI2MdnFM ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ewgHX5U7dEg -------- Watch our previous show, "Will Your Money Last as Long as You Do?" https://youtube.com/live/360YB_NdPwA ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/earnings-mean-reversion-when-estimates-snap-back-2/ "The Fed Rate Hike Won't Fix The Inflation It Targets" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-fed-rate-hike-wont-fix-the-inflation-it-targets/ "K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/k-shaped-economy-reality-or-media-driven-perception/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #SP500 #OilPrice #Earnings #MarketValuations #PortfolioManagement #FederalReserve

Living longer changes almost every assumption behind traditional retirement planning. As more Americans reach retirement age and potentially spend decades in retirement, planning must extend well beyond simply building a large enough portfolio. Richard Rosso and Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty examine the financial realities of longevity, including the fear of running out of money, identifying reliable retirement income sources, withdrawal and tax strategies, long-term care and hybrid insurance policies, estate planning, charitable giving, inheritances, housing decisions, and determining which risks you can absorb versus those you should mitigate. Plus, they discuss the lack of credentials among some financial influencers, alternative ways to measure inflation and healthcare costs, the state of workplace financial and retirement-planning benefits, and the provocative question of whether advances in artificial intelligence represent another major societal turning point. Living to 100 may sound like a blessing, but financially preparing for it requires a very different retirement plan. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Finfluencers (financial influencers) Lack Credentials 6:52- Tracking Inflation w Multiple Metrics - Healthcare Cost Index 9:20 - State of the Workplace - Financial Benefits & Retirement Planning Assistance 11:03 - AI is self-aware: The Fifth Turning 13:23 - Planning for Longevity 16:05 - Estate Planning in Longevity Planning 18:13 - The Silver Tsunami - American's Turning 65 & Living Longer 21:13 - American's Working Longer - Longevity Coaching deficit 23:18 - The Longevity Checklist - Living to 100 25:31 - The Fear of Running Out of Money - Know the Reliability of Income Sources 28:23 - Withdrawal Strategies and Taxes in Old Age - Gifting and Charitable Intent 29:46 - Home Renovation Planning 32:04 - Longterm Care Insurance - Hybrid policies 33:13 - Living Will Directives & Inheritances 36:06 - Rockefeller's Donor Farm 37:45 - Understanding Risks to Absorb vs Risks to Mitigate Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/360YB_NdPwA -------- Watch our previous show, "What the Fed Said" https://youtube.com/live/ZB0_e_Oi86w?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, tomorrow, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementPlanning #LongevityPlanning #RetirementIncome #EstatePlanning #FinancialPlanning

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but for investors, the bigger question is what comes next. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz break down what the Fed said, what Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled about inflation and future monetary policy, and why the Fed's updated rate projections matter for markets. With most policymakers anticipating another rate increase this year, is this the beginning of a new tightening cycle, or could the Fed be closer to "one and done"? What could higher rates mean for stocks, bonds, economic growth, and portfolio strategy as investors look toward the Fed's remaining meetings in 2026? 0:00 INTRO 1:12 - Retail Sales Better than Expected 3:20 - Market Reaction to Rate Hike, Dot Plots, & Commentary 5:14 - Room for a Rally? Odds vs History 10:40 - Mrs. Roberts' Hamburger Date 13:37 - Fed Hikes Rates: Policy Mistake? 17:02 - No Rate Cuts Next Year? 19:50 - Why Would the Fed Raise Rates? (Looking at PCE) 24:02 - It's All About the Bond Market 24:44 - Kevin Warsh' non-Forward Guidance & Dot Plots 27:16 - What Problems Will Rate Hike Cause? 30:08 - This is screwy 31:06 - The Neutral Rate is Already Restrictive 32:27 - Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed's Job? (article) 35:44 - When the Fed Fights Inflation, it Makes Your Life Worse 37:18 - Is This a Start of a New Rate Cycle, or Continuation of Past Rates? 38:46 - This is an Oil Problem 39:26 - Fed Funds Rate History (chart) 42:17 - Give it a few days... Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "What Fed Rate Hikes Mean for Stocks," https://youtu.be/x3R2_RXa6ew ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZB0_e_Oi86w -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: What Will The Fed Do?" https://youtube.com/live/a_oJzPPbdLQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed's Job?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/has-the-bond-market-already-done-the-feds-job/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates #SP500 #Investing #FedRateHike

Markets reversed sharply after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled another potential rate hike by year-end and no rate cuts next year. Now the S&P 500 is testing support near the 100-day moving average as investors reassess what tighter monetary policy could mean for stocks. Historically, markets have tended to struggle during the first three months after the Fed begins hiking rates before recovering over the following year. But history is an average, not a forecast. With earnings still strong, corporate interest coverage at historically high levels, and bond yields already doing some of the Fed's tightening work, this cycle could play out differently. Lance Roberts examines the S&P 500's 50-DMA, 100-DMA, and 200-DMA support levels, the potential downside toward 7,200–7,000, and why risk management could become increasingly important if the Fed hikes again. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/x3R2_RXa6ew --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates #SP500 #Investing