The Real Investment Show Podcast

You can earn a solid average return in retirement and still run out of money. The reason may be sequence of returns risk — the danger of suffering significant market losses early in retirement, while simultaneously withdrawing money from your portfolio. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn explain why the order of investment returns matters so much once you transition from saving to spending, and examine the math behind the 4% withdrawal rule, why early retirement losses can be so difficult to recover from, how taxes can increase the effective draw on a portfolio, and why starting market valuations matter. The goal isn't to predict the next bear market. It's to build a retirement plan that can withstand one. 0:00 - INTRO 1:01 - ISM Report & Economy Activity Remain Robust 2:47 - Earnings Expectations & Whisper Numbers: Plenty of Room for Disappointment 4:09 - Why We Rebalanced on Monday 5:44 - We're on the Cusp of a Breakout to new, all-time highs 7:33 - Oil Prices & Interest Rates 10:35 - Metallica, Wiggles, & How Far Could Kids Go 16:40 - Sequence of returns math (risk): What it is 19:31 - The Generation That's Never Seen a Secular Cycle 21:40 - The Order Decides Everything (chart) 24:22 - What Valuations Mean (chart) 28:33 - Surviving Bear Markets & the Math of Recovery (chart) 33:00 - Interest Rate Factors 33:45 - Factoring for the Tax Man (chart) & Diversification of Accounts 37:38 - [CHAT] Is it too late to start a Roth at Age 60? (no) 40:25 - Summary - What to do next 44:26 - Having Multiple Income Streams in Retirement 45:43 - [CHAT] On the Run T-Bills or Off-the Run? ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "S&P 500 Breakout: Can New Highs Hold?" https://youtu.be/EBGstKJIJWo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/yUsBTHvqAsE?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Q4 Market Outlook: Will Strong Markets Finish Strong?" https://youtube.com/live/_eYgx-MHUvI?feature=share ------ Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sequence-of-return-risk-the-math-that-breaks-retirements/ "From TINA To TIGA: Diversification Pays Again" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/from-tina-to-tiga-diversification-pays-again/ ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #NASDAQ #EarningsSeason #MarketOutlook #RetirementPlanning #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #RetirementIncome #4PercentRule #InvestmentRisk

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs after the NASDAQ has already pushed into record territory. With futures pointing higher and momentum turning positive, the question now is whether the S&P 500 can break above resistance and, more importantly, hold those gains. The setup has several potential tailwinds. Earnings season is approaching, oil prices have retreated sharply from recent highs, and interest rates appear extremely extended and vulnerable to a retracement. Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields could reduce inflation concerns and provide additional short-term support for stocks. But markets are also approaching overbought territory, oil is nearing significant support, and unresolved tensions involving Iran could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude. We examine the technical setup, what could drive the next move, and what investors should watch as the S&P 500 challenges record highs. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/EBGstKJIJWo --- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning Panel" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #NASDAQ #EarningsSeason #MarketOutlook

Can a strong year for stocks carry its momentum through the fourth quarter? History provides an interesting backdrop for the Q4 market outlook. Lance Roberts examines the forces that could shape markets through year-end, including rising earnings estimates, corporate buybacks, investor sentiment, liquidity, interest rates, and the continuing dominance of Technology. We'll also look at the other side of the setup: weak market breadth, elevated Treasury yields, narrow leadership, and the risk that strength in the major indexes may be masking weakness beneath the surface. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - Earnings Season Begins 3:20 - Friday Employment Weaker than Expected, as Falling Trend Continues 3:45 - There is deterioration in the Economy 6:59 - Markets Close a Decent Week Higher 7:48 - Volatility Showing No Signs of Concern; Breadth is a Different Story 9:07 - Markets Remain Well Above Moving Averages 12:07 - Preview: Sequence of Returns Risk 13:04 - How much Do You Need to Be Happy (chart) 18:21 - Looking Ahead into Fourth Quarter - Is October Cursed by the Market gods? 22:43 - Looking at the Drivers that Cause Crashes (not apparent now) 23:48 - Q4 Statistics (chart) 26:42 - Market Returns in Mid-term Election Years (Chart) 28:10 - Earnings are a Driver for the Markets (chart) 30:01 - Factors that Affect Markets (chart) 34:11 - Computerized Trading Algorithms (CTA) Performance (chart) 37:30 - The Economy is Running on Business Spending (ISM) (chart) 39:31 - Q3: The Index Isn't the Average Stock (chart) 40:26 - Market Breadth is at Levels Where Normally They Reverse (chart) 42:15 - What to do next: Guidelines to Follow (chart) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Breadth Sends a Warning," https://youtu.be/gZDLO_jSZrg ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/_eYgx-MHUvI?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Funeral Planning - Make the Decisions Before Your Family Has To." https://youtube.com/live/oGCV1mUrzwk?feature=share- ------ Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/q4-market-outlook-strong-years-usually-finish-strong/ "Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/price-of-happiness-measuring-the-wrong-things/ "Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sequence-of-return-risk-the-math-that-breaks-retirements/ ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #EarningsSeason #Investing #Q4MarketOutlook #MarketOutlook

The S&P 500 remains resilient, but market breadth is telling a very different story. The percentage of stocks on bullish buy signals and those trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, even as the major index remains well above key technical support. Volatility remains subdued, momentum has cooled, and the S&P 500's previous deviation from its 200-DMA has narrowed without a major market decline. That leaves stocks caught between deteriorating participation beneath the surface and an index that continues to trade sideways. The next catalyst could be Q3 earnings season. With strong earnings growth expected, meeting those expectations could provide another leg higher. Missing them, however, could finally force the market to choose a direction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gZDLO_jSZrg --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #EarningsSeason #Investing

Funeral planning may not be anyone's favorite financial-planning conversation, but making decisions now can save your family money, confusion, and difficult choices later. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty take a surprisingly entertaining look at the financial side of planning your own funeral, from traditional burial and cremation to cemeteries, niches, pet burials, aquamation, becoming a tree, and even having your cremains launched into space. We'll examine funeral and burial costs, prepaid arrangements, inflation, cemetery pricing, add-ons, paperwork, and the importance of communicating your final wishes. Can locking in funeral costs today make financial sense? What decisions should you make in advance? And how can planning ahead become an expression of consideration for the people you leave behind? Plus, Richard shares some memorable real-life experiences involving cremains, cemetery niches, his mother's remains, the Grim Reaper, and why apparently even Buc-ee's can inspire a conversation about where you'd like to spend eternity. The subject may be death, but the financial-planning lesson is very much about life: make your wishes known, understand the costs, organize the paperwork, and don't leave your family guessing. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Planning a Client's Funeral (DIY version) 2:55 - Advanced Funeral Planning & Cemeteries 5:46 - Niches for Cremains, Richard & the Grim Reaper 7:54 - Getting Richard's Mother Out of the Closet 15:15 - Cremation? Making Decisions Now So Your Relatives Won't Have To 15:43 - Taking the Dogs With You 16:56 - Cost Effective Solutions 18:01 - The Stories in the Niches 20:10 - The Cost of Burial 22:02 - Pre-cutting Burial Sites 23:18 - Adding more People 24:51 - Buc-cee's Burials 26:33 - Pet Cemetary 27:30 - The Business of Burials - Additional costs & add-ons 32:14 - Funeral Inflation & Locking in Costs 34:15 - SCI International 36:04 - Dealing with the Paperwork 38:03 - Communicating Final Wishes 40:31 - How do You Want to Be Buried (Be a Tree, Aquamation, Rocket Launch) 45:45 - Location, Location, Location... 48:00 - The Ultimate Expression of Caring & Respect ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/oGCV1mUrzwk?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "From TINA to TIGA: Diversification Pays Again" https://youtube.com/live/JV2n7ESiZ54?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FuneralPlanning #EstatePlanning #FinancialPlanning #FuneralCosts #Cremation