The Real Investment Show Podcast

Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, Treasury yields, and the stock market. We examine what inflation trends reveal about consumer purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and the outlook for investors. Could today's inflation pressures eventually become tomorrow's economic weakness? 0:00 - INTRO 0:51 - Heavy Week of Earnings Driving markets 2:05 - Markets Sell off on Friday 3:52 - Markets Still Stuck in Same Consolidation Range (S&P vs RSP) 5:56 - Banks' Six Weeks' Sell Off = Opportunity? 8:18 - Misunderstanding Inflation - Good vs Bad 10:47 - What Inflation Looks at: Rate of CHANGE in Price 12:49 - The only thing the Fed can control is your spending 14:26 - The Fed is coming after you 15:03 - A history of inflation, supply, & demand (chart: price & quantity) 21:00 - Headline vs Core CPI (chart) 22:50 - Wages are the Problem (chart) 23:34 - Labor Share of Output is 52% (chart) 26:20 - When Do We Have Demand Destruction? (now) - Real Oil Prices Always Come Back (chart) 28:12 - How to Position Portfolios for 2027? 29:26 - The AI Cap-ex Spend Narrative (Data Centers Are Not New) 34:16 - Record Capex, Fading Growth (chart) 39:35 - What if Capex Growth Stalls? (chart) 41:03 - Risks to Capex Spending (chart) 48:02 - AI is Real (just like the internet trade) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/azh9TZhC4PQ?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "The Hidden Costs of Pet Ownership" https://youtube.com/live/msrXdknaVjg?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bad Inflation Cures Itself. Good Inflation Doesn't" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bad-inflation-cures-itself-good-inflation-doesnt/ "AI Capex And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-capex-and-earnings-what-happens-when-growth-slows/ "The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-kalecki-profit-equation-and-the-coming-reversion/ -------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Tech Stocks Take a Hit" https://youtu.be/Cz1Gn2J62Yc ------- REGISTER for our next in-person event, "Retirement Blueprint: 12 Steps to a Financially Savvy & Secure Retirement," Saturday, November 7: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #FederalReserve #StockMarket #TreasuryBonds #Investing

Technology stocks are under pressure as investors rotate from growth to value, while the S&P 500 approaches a critical test of its 100-day moving average. Following Friday's selloff, the market remains trapped in a two-month consolidation range, with a short-term momentum sell signal suggesting further downside pressure. AI-related suppliers and neocloud stocks suffered particularly sharp losses, even as broader market breadth improved. Lance Roberts examines how falling 10-year Treasury yields are fueling sector rotation, why equal-weight stocks are outperforming mega-cap technology, and whether oversold bank stocks could present a buying opportunity. Discover what shifting market leadership means for portfolio diversification, interest-rate-sensitive sectors, and the next move in the S&P 500. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/Cz1Gn2J62Yc --- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning Panel" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TechStocks #SectorRotation #Investing

How much does owning a dog or cat really cost over its lifetime? From adoption fees and food to veterinary care, pet insurance, and estate planning, pet ownership comes with financial obligations that can significantly affect your household budget. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty examine the true lifetime costs of pet ownership, including the differences between dogs and cats, unexpected healthcare expenses, dental care, travel arrangements, and ways to manage financial risks. Should pet expenses have their own line item in your financial plan? Is pet insurance worth the premiums? And what happens to your pets when you're no longer able to care for them? Plus, we're discussing the reported 3.6% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and examining the rising costs of Halloween candy, pet costumes, and seasonal spending. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - The Pregnancy Minefield & The Real McCarty's 4:52 - Social Security COLA = 3.6% 6:00 - Planning for Pets - Dogs vs Cats 7:44 - Estimate Median Lifetime Pet Costs 11:28 - Animal Adoptions, etc. 13:47 - Pet Costs as Part of Financial Plan 14:16 - Setting Up Separate Pet Expense Budget Line Item 15:19 - Risk Mitigation for Pet Ownership Cost 18:08 - The True Cost of Adoption 24:56 - Traveling with Pets Expenses 26:33 - Estate Planning for Pets 27:18 - Considering Pet Insurance (Lemonade, TruPanion) 37:28 - Doggie Items & Costumes 39:17 - Halloween Candy Costs ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/msrXdknaVjg?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Inflation Runs Hot: What's Next for the Fed?" https://youtube.com/live/AFjsj1rWqOw?feature=share ------- REGISTER for our next in-person event, "Retirement Blueprint: 12 Steps to a Financially Savvy & Secure Retirement," Saturday, November 7: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FinancialPlanning #PetOwnership #PetInsurance #EstatePlanning #RetirementPlanning

Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, raising fresh questions about the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Will the Fed hold rates higher for longer, or will slowing economic growth force policymakers to reconsider? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the latest inflation trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and what persistent price pressures could mean for the stock market, Treasury yields, and investors. Can the Federal Reserve bring inflation under control without undermining economic growth? We discuss the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the risks of keeping interest rates elevated, and how changing inflation expectations could influence stocks, bonds, and portfolio strategy. 0:00 - INTRO 0:46 - CPI Comes in Hot 2:24 - Markets Sell Off on Inflation Print 3:36 - RSP Showing Recovery in Rotations 6:46 - Barry White & Sore Throats 7:49 - The Tell of the Tails - Foreign Selling & Domestic Buying 10:45 - Retail Bond Buying (EDIT) 12:10 - Two Reasons: CPI +.01%, Bond Yields Fall 14:09 - When Bad News is Good News 15:56 - CoreWeave (neo-cloud) Factor: Is AI Overbuilding? 18:49 - Credit Spread Widening: Is the Fed Making a Mistake? 22:01 - How Fed Policy is Working Through the Economy 22:47 - Credit Spreads in CCC Arena (chart) 27:06 - The Fed Wants the Cost of Money to be More Painful 28:28 - Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) as Surrogates for Bond Market (chart) 30:24 - The Problem with MBS - Becoming Specified Pools 38:02 - Why Buy MBS vs Treasury? 40:03 - PPI & Retail Sales Preview ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/AFjsj1rWqOw -------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Think Rates Are Peaking? Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-rates-are-peaking-consider-mortgage-backed-securities/ -------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Hot Inflation, Stalled Markets," https://youtu.be/2WPLXIJt24g ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday" https://youtube.com/live/KW1HXnwHT0E ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL," TODAY, October 15 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Inflation #MarketBreadth #InvestingStrategy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedPolicy

Hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data sent stocks lower Wednesday, erasing the S&P 500's recent breakout to all-time highs and pushing markets back into the trading range that has persisted since August. With the index now threatening to test its 100-day moving average, is a larger correction developing, or is this simply normal October market behavior? Lance Roberts examines why improving market breadth and a rotation from growth to value stocks may be helping stabilize markets despite weakness in Technology and semiconductor shares. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is showing signs of recovery, while Healthcare, Financials, and Energy are attracting renewed interest. This broadening participation suggests investors are repositioning rather than abandoning equities. With markets consolidating, Lance explains why patience, disciplined risk management, selective profit-taking, and maintaining portfolio exposure may be preferable to reacting prematurely. The next sustained breakout, higher or lower, will help determine the market's direction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/2WPLXIJt24g --- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning Panel" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Inflation #MarketBreadth #InvestingStrategy