The Real Investment Show Podcast

Ray Dalio's Davos comments aren't a "next-week collapse" call—they're a long-cycle warning: rising debt supply can eventually force higher yields and tough policy trade-offs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but sector/factor dispersion and low correlations show a fierce rotation under the hood. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the calm index ≠ calm market—watch dispersion and correlations for the next regime shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Reports Show Benefits of AI Data Centers 5:17 - Why The Dow Jones Index Matters Now 9:20 - WalMart Quarterly is Proxy for Staples 12:30 - Why WalMart Valuation Matters 15:53 - Periods of Rolling Bubbles 19:45 - Has AI Cap-ex Already Been Priced-in? 22:20 - The Value-Growth Rotation 24:01 - Fed Meeting Minutes Recap 26:57 - Debunking Dalio 33:13 - Dealing with Negative, Doom & Gloom Headlines 37:10 - Mortgage-backed Bond Exposure 41:18 - Could the Yield Curve Flatten? 43:09 - Is Kevin Warsh just Jerome Powell 2.0? 44:19 - Avoid Worrying About Things Out of Your Control ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/mippkxiCJQI ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents/ "AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bubble-history-says-caution-is-warranted/ "Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-sector-review-extreme-market-bifurcation/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money, and Your Questions" here: https://youtube.com/live/3xyx42x5s44 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dow Streak Signals Pullback ," is here: https://youtu.be/zor3I7w1wLA ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #DowJones #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingStrategy #RayDalio #Davos #MarketRotation #SP500 #RiskManagement

Markets pushed higher Wednesday morning and ran straight into a key technical "traffic jam" as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converged near the same level. Late-day selling pulled prices back toward the 50-DMA, and with futures slightly lower this morning, the big question is whether buyers step back in—or whether we start to see a more routine digestion of gains. The bigger tell right now may be the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow has notched nine consecutive months of gains, a streak that's historically rare over long market history. When runs like this extend, it doesn't automatically signal a crash—but it does increase the odds of corrective action. If a Dow pullback shows up, it can easily spill into the S&P 500 and NASDAQ through sentiment and positioning. Breadth is improving, with roughly 65% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their moving averages. That's supportive for trend health—yet it's also a double-edged sword. When participation rises broadly, markets can correct broadly as well, even if the primary trend remains intact. Bottom line: we're not talking about a major breakdown. But a 3–5% pullback would be completely normal given the Dow's extended run and the market's proximity to key moving averages. That's why this is a good window to take partial profits, rebalance risk, and maintain discipline. If/when a pullback arrives, it can create a more favorable entry point to put that capital back to work. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/zor3I7w1wLA --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-sector-review-extreme-market-bifurcation/ "Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #DowJones #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingStrategy

It's Q&A Wednesday—your questions drive the show. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down what's moving markets right now, key economic and Fed signals to watch this week, and the practical portfolio decisions that matter most (risk, allocations, income, taxes, and retirement timing). Drop your question in the live chatroom and we'll tackle as many as we can. Topics we often cover: market volatility & trend levels, rates/inflation, sector rotation, retirement income, tax strategy, ETFs vs. individual bonds, and avoiding emotional decision-making. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Wrapping Earnings Season w Highest Revenue Growth Ever 4:38 - Markets Bounce off 100-DMA 6:47 - What's Next for Crude Oil & Energy Stocks? 9:40 - How Much Money is "Enough" to Retire On? 17:48 - Study: Coffee & Dementia 19:06 - Work Benefits vs Medicare 20:41 - Capital Allocation in Current Markets 23:19 - How to Plan for 2027 25:14 - Bloom Energy & Fuel Cell Tech 26:21 - Price Floor Effects on Trading, Employment & Metals 29:56 - Extended Car Warranty Pros & Cons 31:27 - How Much Trust in Forward Guidance? 32:55 - Is Palantir Over Sold? (Yes) 33:35 - Datacenter Rage vs Fiber Optics 35:00 - Corporate Stock Buy Backs vs AI Cap-Ex Spending 35:54 - Planning to Retire at 56 36:52 - Should You Wait Until 74 for Social Security? 39:09 - Market Rotation Velocity 40:28 - Coming Attractions ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/3xyx42x5s44 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/seasonality-buy-signal-and-investing-outcomes/ "Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technology-stocks-dead-or-an-opportunity/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Bank, Brokerage, or Corporate Trustee? (It's a Matter of Trust)," here: https://youtube.com/live/MU8qVbSiqxY?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "1100-DMA Bounce: Range-Bound Markets & Energy Risk," is here: https://youtu.be/EJVtzKwAMG4 ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #EnergyStocks #QandAWednesday #MarketOutlook #PortfolioRisk #RetirementPlanning #InvestingEducation

Markets tested the 100-day moving average (100-DMA) and buyers stepped in—exactly where many systematic and algorithmic strategies tend to respond. Futures are pointing higher this morning, but that doesn't automatically mean the selloff is finished. Momentum remains weak and the market is still on a sell signal, which often sets up a choppy, range-bound environment without a clear catalyst. We also discuss why "chasing winners" can get dangerous late in an extended run—highlighted by Walmart's sharp drop after a strong advance. In commodities, crude oil is trying to stabilize, but remains on a sell signal at elevated levels. If support near ~$62 fails, the next downside zone could pull oil into the mid-to-high $50s—potentially helping inflation prints while pressuring Energy stocks. Energy sector momentum is stretched and nearing a sell signal from a high level. If you've been riding Energy higher, this may be a prudent window to rebalance risk and harvest gains—rather than waiting for the market to do it for you. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/EJVtzKwAMG4 --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-sector-review-extreme-market-bifurcation/ "Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #EnergyStocks

Choosing a corporate trustee is one of the most important decisions in estate planning—especially if you're naming a bank, brokerage trust department, or independent trust company to manage assets and carry out your wishes after you're gone. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down how to compare corporate trustees beyond just "lowest fees," including fiduciary standards, investment flexibility, service model, administrative capabilities, distribution discipline, technology/reporting, continuity, and how they handle family dynamics. We also cover the key differences between revocable and irrevocable trusts, including where each is typically used, how control and flexibility change, and why trustee selection matters even more once a trust becomes irrevocable. Finally, we explain Trust Protectors—what they do, why they can be a critical safeguard, and how they may help your beneficiaries replace a trustee later if service, philosophy, or circumstances change. For educational purposes only. This discussion is general in nature and not individualized legal, tax, or investment advice—talk with your estate attorney and tax professional to apply these concepts to your situation. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Bifurcated Markets - Over Sold, Over Bought 3:09 - Markets Challenge 100-DMA 7:57 - The Danger in Overlooking the Importance of Trusts 11:21 - Don't Scrimp on Speedo's or Estate Plans 14:24 - Where There's a Will... 17:51 - Medical, Durable Powers of Attorney 20:26 - The Parties to a Trust 23:45 - Setting Up the Trust 29:34 - Wills vs Beneficiary Directions 32:00 - Who Do You Designate as Trustee? 36:27 - Choosing the Right Corporate Trustee 39:20 - Estate Taxes & Exemptions 40:55 - Passing Assets to Children Who Marry & Divorce 43:51 - Legal Zoom & On Line Platforms 46:15 - Trust Protectors 47:39 - The Cost of Setting Up a Trust 52:54 - What is Required to Change a Trust Company? ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/MU8qVbSiqxY?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/seasonality-buy-signal-and-investing-outcomes/ "Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technology-stocks-dead-or-an-opportunity/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Margin Debt & the One-Stock Myth," here: https://youtube.com/live/MU8qVbSiqxY?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "100-DMA Test - Momentum Fades, Rotation Shifts," is here: https://youtu.be/Qkkl5m8hY7w ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketUpdate #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketRotation #EstatePlanning #Trusts #Trustee #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning