The Real Investment Show Podcast

The S&P 500 just broke its 200-day moving average. Is this a bear market signal or a historic buying opportunity? The answer depends on a clear set of warning indicators – and right now, only two of six are flashing red. Lance Roberts comments in real-time as news of a delay in miliary strikes on Iran power stations affects pre-market action. Lance also breaks down every 200-DMA break since 2000, separating the seven sustained crashes from the five whipsaw recoveries. The data gap is stark: average 12-month return after a sustained break is -4.0%, versus +19.8% after a brief one. We walk through the six-factor scorecard and tell you exactly where today's break stands. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:14 - Market Volatility & End of Quarter 4:20 - Claude.AI & Tokens 6:42 - Houston Meteor 7:25 - Markets Break 200-DMA 13:54 - How Markets Work with Catalysts 18:50 - When markets Break the 200-DMA 25:13 - Paying Attention to Sentiment 27:26 - How to Differentiate between Brief vs Sustained Breaks 31:08 - What to do Next 34:18 - Why CDX Spreads Matter 39:44 - Dollar Plumbing, Gold, & Central Banks ------- Register for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Beyond Filing: Turning Your Tax Return into a Strategic Financial Plan," Thursday, April 2, at 12-noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/j9BYjeW2teTJ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/VlxdVnhyKR4?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Tax Strategies That Actually Save You Money," https://youtube.com/live/IvotNMC_fgk ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "The 200-DMA Just Broke: What Every Investor Should Know" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-200-dma-just-broke-what-every-investor-should-know/ "The Dollar's Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollars-plumbing-conspiracy-vs-data/ "CDX: Credit Spreads Are Flashing A Warning" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/cdx-credit-spreads-are-flashing-a-warning/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Trump-Iran News Reverses Futures" is here: https://youtu.be/9qem93AR4jI ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PreMarket #StockMarket #200DMA #MarketAnalysis #TradingAlerts #SP500 #StockMarket #InvestingStrategy #BearMarket #TechnicalAnalysis

Markets confirmed a break below the 200-Day Moving Average on Friday — amplified by Options Expiration Day selling. Then a single headline changed everything. During this live pre-market update, news broke that President Trump was postponing military strikes on Iranian power plants — instantly reversing market futures and setting up a significant bounce at the open. This is exactly why knee-jerk reactions can destroy your trading account. One headline. One move. Markets potentially back above the 200-DMA. Stay disciplined. Stay informed. Watch before the open. Subscribe for daily pre-market analysis, technical breakdowns, and real-time market updates designed for serious investors and active traders. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/9qem93AR4jI --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PreMarket #StockMarket #200DMA #MarketAnalysis #TradingAlerts

Most people think about taxes once a year. Smart investors think about them every year. Richard Rosso & Sarah Buenger break down the critical difference between tax preparation and true tax planning, and why that distinction could be worth thousands of dollars to your portfolio over time. We'll walk through real-world anonymous case studies from our client work, including how we helped one client sell nearly half of a concentrated stock position while staying entirely within the 0% capital gains bracket. We also cover Roth conversion timing, IRMAA bracket management, tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing, portfolio migration strategies, and proactive planning for stock options and restricted stock. Whether you are accumulating wealth or drawing it down, understanding how these levers work together is what separates a good financial plan from a great one. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Sarah Buenger, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Gilligan's Island & Taxes 2:27 - Market Commentary & Sentiment Survey 3:11 - The Fine Line Between Tax Prep vs Tax Planning 8:35 - Impact of OBBB & Rothification 10:17 - Avoid Tax Myopia 12:07 - Dealing with the Tax Torpedo 12:31 - Being Tax Flexible 14:11 - Your Tax Return is a Diagnostic Tool 17:16 - Widowed Survivors Paying Higher Taxes - Taxes are Barnacles 20:13 - The Tax System is Broken 23:07 - Stock Concentrations & Long Term Gains 25:13 - Trust Distributions & Capital Gains 26:40 Tax Brackets for Trusts 28:01 - Myriad Capital Gains Tax Rates 34:06 - Becoming IRMAA-centric 36:46 - Asset Location Strategies for Taxes 38:38 - The Mistake of "Silo-ing" Tax Advisors and Financial Advisors 41:15 - Why Avoid Gains to Avoid Taxes?? 42:58 - Why Not Take Losses Each Year? ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 3/21/26, and Ask Us Anything: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ask-us-anything/ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/IvotNMC_fgk ------- Watch our previous show, "Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?," https://youtube.com/live/IbKkqWayKu8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Private Credit Stress: Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-credit-stress-will-the-fed-backstop-excuberance-again/ "USD Stable Coins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/usd-stable-coins-and-the-rebasement-of-the-us-dollar/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Flail as Rate Cut Hopes Fail" is here: https://youtu.be/IOumOUnLKpM ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TaxPlanning #WealthManagement #RetirementStrategy #CapitalGains #RothConversion

Hot inflation data sent markets lower Wednesday, killing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and leaving the Fed firmly on hold. Now markets are testing the critical 200-day moving average (200-DMA) — a level that has provided support for 214 consecutive days. Before you make any moves, here is what you need to know: Markets have worked off a significant portion of their overbought condition, but are not yet in oversold territory. A break of the 200-DMA alone is NOT a sell signal. Watch for a failed rally back to the 200-DMA — that is your true warning. We are in a correction, not a collapse. Corrections happen every year. Markets recover. Begin identifying capital to deploy when the real opportunity presents itself — we are not there yet. Oil prices remain near $100 but price momentum is starting to weaken. Volatility is rising and deserves close attention given the Fed's posture and ongoing inflation pressure. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/IOumOUnLKpM --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PreMarket #StockMarketToday #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the most pressing financial topics shaping markets and personal finance decisions right now. We open with an analysis of current selling pressure and what it signals for equity markets, then dive deep into why credit spreads deserve your attention as a leading indicator of risk. We make the case for why waiting for S&P 6,900 could cost you opportunity, and offer a teaser on the growing private credit space. From there, we tackle real estate investment trusts and AG&C — examining whether current valuations finally make them worth buying. We discuss disciplined profit-taking strategies, the relationship between oil prices and airline ticket costs, and identify which companies are most likely to mishandle AI implementation and what that means for investors. On the retirement and income planning side, we cover home equity conversion mortgages and reverse mortgages, annuities with long-term care riders, and whether private equity offerings inside 401(k) plans make sense for individual investors. We also examine target date funds and how they fit into a broader retirement strategy. We round out the episode with a discussion of GDP calculation methodology, asset tokenization and stablecoins, hedging techniques for isolating individual stock exposure, and key lessons from William Bernstein's philosophy on knowing when to stop taking risk. We close with a framework for balancing active versus passive investing, risk management principles, and a look at the three high-quality stocks Charlie Munger consistently championed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Selling Pressure Remains 2:57 - Pay Attention to Credit Spreads 5:21 - Don't Wait for 6,900 11:46 - Private Credit Teaser 13:07 - Thoughts on REIT's & AG&C: Is it Time to Buy? 15:12 - What is Your Method for Taking Profits? 19:15 - The Price of Oil & Airline Tickets 22:49 - Which Companies Will Screw Up AI Implementation? 26:42 - Home Equity Conversions - Reverse Mortgages 29:59 - Annuities w LTC Riders 31:29 - How is GDP Calculated? 32:40 - Asset Tokenization & StableCoin 34:36 - Isolating Stocks by Hedging 35:35 - William Bernstein - Quit Playing 38:52 - Active vs Passive Investing & Risk Management 42:42 - Charlie Munger's 3 High-quality Stocks 46:28 - Are Target Date Funds a Good Option? 47:17 - Private Equity Offerings in 401k? ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 3/21/26, and Ask Us Anything: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ask-us-anything/ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: ------- Watch our previous show, "Fixing Your Broken Emergency Fund," https://youtube.com/live/3x6MbhEYpcU?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Private Credit Stress: Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-credit-stress-will-the-fed-backstop-excuberance-again/ "USD Stable Coins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/usd-stable-coins-and-the-rebasement-of-the-us-dollar/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rebalance Now Before the Rally Fades" is here: https://youtu.be/yAmYkDUWWW4 ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PreMarket #StockMarketToday #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy #InvestingStrategy #RetirementPlanning #MarketOutlook #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement