The Real Investment Show Podcast

Is China really "dumping" U.S. Treasury bonds—or is that headline missing key context? Lance Roberts examines what Treasury International Capital (TIC) data does (and doesn't) show, why China's reported holdings can shift for reasons that have nothing to do with panic selling, and how custody chains and financial centers can complicate the narrative. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:52 - What to Do w Tariffs Struck Down by SCOTUS 5:35 - GDP Weaker than Expected, except... 12:59 - Coming Attractions - Ten Laws of Money 16:27 - Chat Question: Is China Dumping U.S. Treasuries? 17:48 - The Problem w the Narrative & Lance in France 22:06 - China's Shift in Custodial Relationships 26:13 - Why Luxembourg & Belgium Matter 28:05 - How the Financial Plumbing Works 29:16 - Why They Buy Dollar-denominated Assets 31:55 - Dollar vs Euro Trade 32:48 - How Investors Should Look at U.S. Treasuries 34:08 - U.S. Treasuries Anchor Risk-free Pricing 37:20 - Portfolio is a Toolbox, not a Narrative 39:01 - Focus on the Risk that Matters 41:51 - Tariff Changes & Policy Risks 43:26 - Semper Gumby - Always Flexible ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions," here: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme," is here: https://youtu.be/Dule_eZoSBY ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #USTreasuries #China #BondMarket #InterestRates #MacroInvesting

Markets bounced Friday, recovering to close slightly above the 20-day moving average, but the story remains internal rotation—not a clean, broad-based trend. Energy and mega-caps carried the tape into the close, while this morning the leadership is shifting again, with Healthcare acting better (Eli Lilly notably higher) and much of the rest of the market looking flat. February is doing what it often does—acting like one of the weaker seasonal months—and the S&P 500 is up only about 1.2% year-to-date. Under the surface, sector bifurcation is pronounced: Energy, Industrials, and Basic Materials have posted outsized gains, while Technology, Financials, and Healthcare have lagged. That divergence is a reminder that "index level" calm can mask very real crosscurrents in risk. Breadth is also sending a message. The equal-weighted index continues to outperform, and roughly 65% of S&P 500 constituents are outperforming the index so far this year—an extreme not seen in decades. Strong participation isn't inherently bearish, but when performance becomes that broadly stretched, the probability of mean reversion and sharp reversals tends to rise. Bottom line: respect the rotation, don't chase what's extended, and stay disciplined on risk controls. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/Dule_eZoSBY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #SectorRotation #RiskManagement

Some 401(k) plans let you put in extra after-tax money and move it into a Roth so it can grow tax-free—but you have to know what your plan allows. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty share 10 questions to ask your 401(k) provider so you don't miss it. Rich & Jonathan also explain a new bill that would make the $6,000 senior deduction permanent. It's not the same as "no tax on Social Security" for everyone—and the Social Security tax rules still depend on income thresholds that haven't kept up with inflation. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Mancards & Oven Replacements 3:21 - OBBA & Larger Tax Refunds 10:16 - The $6k Senior Tax Deduction 16:52 - Are You Mega Roth Eligible? 21:18 - The Super Saver Endorphen 24:24 - The Roth Aging Issue 27:25 - Changes in the AMT 30:56 - OBBA & Marginal Rates Will Go Up 36:10 - Candid Coffee Preview ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Dalio at Davos: Calm Markets, Hidden Currents," here: https://youtube.com/live/mippkxiCJQI -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dow Streak Signals Pullback ," is here: https://youtu.be/zor3I7w1wLA ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementPlanning #RothIRA #Roth401k #SocialSecurity #TaxPlanning

Ray Dalio's Davos comments aren't a "next-week collapse" call—they're a long-cycle warning: rising debt supply can eventually force higher yields and tough policy trade-offs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but sector/factor dispersion and low correlations show a fierce rotation under the hood. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the calm index ≠ calm market—watch dispersion and correlations for the next regime shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Reports Show Benefits of AI Data Centers 5:17 - Why The Dow Jones Index Matters Now 9:20 - WalMart Quarterly is Proxy for Staples 12:30 - Why WalMart Valuation Matters 15:53 - Periods of Rolling Bubbles 19:45 - Has AI Cap-ex Already Been Priced-in? 22:20 - The Value-Growth Rotation 24:01 - Fed Meeting Minutes Recap 26:57 - Debunking Dalio 33:13 - Dealing with Negative, Doom & Gloom Headlines 37:10 - Mortgage-backed Bond Exposure 41:18 - Could the Yield Curve Flatten? 43:09 - Is Kevin Warsh just Jerome Powell 2.0? 44:19 - Avoid Worrying About Things Out of Your Control ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/mippkxiCJQI ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents/ "AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bubble-history-says-caution-is-warranted/ "Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-sector-review-extreme-market-bifurcation/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money, and Your Questions" here: https://youtube.com/live/3xyx42x5s44 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dow Streak Signals Pullback ," is here: https://youtu.be/zor3I7w1wLA ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #DowJones #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingStrategy #RayDalio #Davos #MarketRotation #SP500 #RiskManagement

Markets pushed higher Wednesday morning and ran straight into a key technical "traffic jam" as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converged near the same level. Late-day selling pulled prices back toward the 50-DMA, and with futures slightly lower this morning, the big question is whether buyers step back in—or whether we start to see a more routine digestion of gains. The bigger tell right now may be the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow has notched nine consecutive months of gains, a streak that's historically rare over long market history. When runs like this extend, it doesn't automatically signal a crash—but it does increase the odds of corrective action. If a Dow pullback shows up, it can easily spill into the S&P 500 and NASDAQ through sentiment and positioning. Breadth is improving, with roughly 65% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their moving averages. That's supportive for trend health—yet it's also a double-edged sword. When participation rises broadly, markets can correct broadly as well, even if the primary trend remains intact. Bottom line: we're not talking about a major breakdown. But a 3–5% pullback would be completely normal given the Dow's extended run and the market's proximity to key moving averages. That's why this is a good window to take partial profits, rebalance risk, and maintain discipline. If/when a pullback arrives, it can create a more favorable entry point to put that capital back to work. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/zor3I7w1wLA --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Sector Review: Extreme Market Bifurcation" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-sector-review-extreme-market-bifurcation/ "Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #DowJones #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestingStrategy