The HC Commodities Podcast

We have moved beyond the duration discussion. The damage has been done and the oil markets will not return to the ante-bellum state any time soon if ever. What happens when financial markets - both for oil and more broadly catch up to the physical reality? Molecule Contagion as our guest for this special episode Jeff Currie of Carlyle puts in. The revenge of the old economy just got teeth and the ramifications are being discounted at best and denied at worst. What are the longer term impacts of the events in the Gulf. Accelerating decoupling, de-dollarization and a shot in the arm for the energy transition. The only safety....HALO stocks.

With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, what does that mean for the regions biggest customer - Asia? Tom Reed, VP of Crude and Products at Argus Media joins us to provide a detailed examination on the impact of Israel and the US's joint attack on Iran on crude and product flows from the region. What were the flows prior to the attack? What has it meant for traders, contracts and customers? Is China tapping its Strategic Petroleum Reserve? And will Asian countries start to ban the export of fuels?

Returning today to discuss the latest developments from Israel & US's war with Iran is Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk advisory firm. What are the commodities markets telling us about duration? What are the incentive structures in place? How are traders faring in this period of extraordinary volatility? Is the US Treasury trading and how rumor and innuendo are driving that volatility? What would mines in the strait mean? Would boots on the ground actually lower prices? Why are the equity markets so sanguine? could this, plus a smoldering private credit fund concern, lead us quickly to the global financial crisis?

Today,  we return to US domestic energy supply and private equity. The vibrancy of private capital markets launched the shale revolution and is now unlocking key bottlenecks in infrastructure as the US looks to meet the world’s demand for LNG and domestic AI. Where is shale production today?  Are rumors of its demise overstated? Where is demand headed, particularly for natural gas? And how is private equity faring more broadly in a world of higher interest rates and other macro-economic headwinds? And what are the opportunities within energy and its infrastructure? Our guest is Jason Downie, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Tailwater Capital, a private equity firm with over 6 billion in capital and a core focus on energy infrastructure.

Nick Kumleben, Director of the Geopolitical Risk Consultancy founded by Niall Ferguson, Greenmantle, rejoins us to discuss the latest events in Middle East. What are the short, medium and long-term consequences of Israel and the US's joint attack on global trade and commodities. What are some non-linear effects and why ultimately duration is key.