Ripple Effect

In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Rick Hasen, professor at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law and director of its Safeguarding Democracy Project, to talk about the risks of subversion and violence surrounding the U.S. elections. They discuss former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the election results in 2020, and his multi-pronged effort to overturn the result, which culminated in his supporters attacking the U.S. Capitol on 6 January 2021. They unpack the complex voting system in the U.S. and whether legal reforms in the aftermath of the 2020 elections are enough to safeguard against potential subversion in this cycle. They also discuss whether the tense political climate around the polls and efforts by Donald Trump and his supporters to sow distrust about the validity of the vote could lead to new violence.

For more, check out Rick Hasen’s Election Law Blog, our latest Q&A Risks of Violence around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: A Primer and our United States program page.
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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Editor of Foreign Affairs, to talk about where U.S. foreign policy might be headed after the November elections as conflicts and crises swirl around the world. They take a look at Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ competing views about Washington’s role in global affairs and who either presidential candidate might choose to fill their national security cabinet. They assess how a Democratic and Republican administration would differ in tackling the deepening conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere. They also discuss how U.S.-China policy and Washington’s relations with Tehran might evolve after the elections.

For more, check out Daniel’s book The China Mission and our United States pages.
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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Shivshankar Menon, Crisis Group trustee and former Indian National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary, to talk about India’s perspective on the U.S. election, what a second Trump presidency would mean for relations between New Delhi and Washington, how bilateral relations have evolved under President Biden’s administration and how India is carving out its place in a changing world order. They discuss how India views the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, its evolving relations with Russia and Israel, and New Dheli’s perspective on the U.S.-China rivalry. They also discuss the state of democracy in the U.S. and, more broadly, the potential ramifications of the upcoming elections for international peace and security.

For more, check out our Shivshankar’s latest article in Foreign Affairs All Powers Great and Small as well as our India and United States pages.
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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve are joined by Gérard Araud, who represented France at both the United Nations and in Washington, DC and currently serves as a Crisis Group Trustee, to talk about how European leaders are preparing for a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, and what the implications of a Trump win would be for Ukraine, the trans-Atlantic partnership, and the prospects for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy”. They discuss the rise of populism in Europe. They also discuss how French and European leaders judge the performance of the Biden administration so far and what they would expect from a second Biden term should he be re-elected.

For more, check out our United States program page.
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In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the state of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence as the U.S. heads toward the November elections. They break down how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society. They assess the potential risk factors that could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections and how they compare to the 2020 elections. They discuss how Washington is navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions. They also talk about what politicians on both sides of the aisle can do to mitigate the risk of political violence in the near term.

For more, check out Rachel’s piece Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. You can read more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode on our United States program page.
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