South America in Competition Conference: Bonus Episode 1
Episode 138 is a bonus episode built out of conversations held with panelists from the 2025 Irregular Warfare Initiative and Special Operations Association of America South America in Competition Conference.
The South America in Competition Conference brought together over 250 researchers, practitioners, and members of industry for two days at the Carahsoft Headquarters in the DC area. The first day included panel discussions on irregular warfare challenges in the South America region. The second day included a detailed wargame with participation from a range of stakeholders, planned by the IWI Wargaming Division.
For this bonus episode, IWI Podcast Host Jackie Giunta recorded four short conversations with conference participants following their panel presentations.
First, Will Walker from Onebrief examines whether PRC strategy in South America is coercive or benign. Next, Adam Fife, the CEO of CenCore, discusses Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Third, Leland Lazarus discusses how China’s economic statecraft is another form of irregular warfare. Last, Dr. Evan Ellis, Professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College, provides a broad overview of China’s strategy in South America.
Introducing and closing the episode are Doug Livermore, the IWI Director of Engagements, and Umar Ahmed Badami, Director of the IWI Wargaming Division. They also both planned this major event. Kyle Atwell provided editorial support for this episode.
If you have an idea for a future event or wargame IWI should run, want to get involved in events, or want to provide material support so IWI can continue these important conversations - reach out to Doug or Umar directly.
Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.
All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa
Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa
--------
53:53
--------
53:53
Future of War Part II: On Their Own
Episode 137 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast continues our four-part series on the future of war, pairing renowned author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold.
Our conversation centers on Cole’s short story On Their Own, which imagines U.S. Army Special Operations Forces advising a newly formed Thai commando unit amid Chinese-backed proxies, pervasive surveillance, organized crime, and accelerating technological change. The story spotlights how SOF teams may have to influence from the sidelines—helping partners integrate robotics, AI, and cyber tools—while competing for the strategic narrative in a contested Indo-Pacific environment.
Joining us for this episode is Major General Jeff VanAntwerp, Commander of Special Operations Command–Pacific (SOCPAC). Together with August Cole, MG VanAntwerp discusses how Army SOF is adapting to new technologies, why trust with partners remains a timeless necessity, and what qualities will continue to define special operators in the years ahead. The discussion underscores that while future operators will be hyper-enabled with sensors, drones, and advanced AI, the human dimension of warfare—trust, adaptability, and leadership—remains constant.
At the conclusion of the episode, listeners can hear a narrated excerpt from On Their Own, immersing them in the dilemmas SOF may face in the conflicts of the 2030s.
--------
1:00:33
--------
1:00:33
Insurgent Armies and State Formation after Victory
Episode 136 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines the fate of victorious rebel groups after civil wars—and why some remain loyal to post-war governments while others fragment, defect, or even overthrow the regimes they helped create.
Our guests begin by exploring the core puzzle: conventional wisdom suggests that decisive victory produces stability, yet evidence shows that in more than half of cases, post-war militaries face crises within a decade. They then explain how wartime pressures shape the organizational choices of rebel groups—particularly the relationship between political leaders and field commanders—and how those choices carry forward into peacetime governance. Drawing on cases from Zimbabwe, Côte d’Ivoire, and across Africa, the discussion highlights why power-sharing arrangements often fail, why commitment problems undermine loyalty, and how the interests of commanders, rulers, and foreign partners diverge. Finally, the conversation turns to the limits of external security assistance, and what policymakers and practitioners should consider when working with post-conflict militaries.
Dr. Philip A. Martin is an assistant professor at George Mason University. His research specializes in political violence and civil wars, peacebuilding, and African politics. His article, Insurgent Armies: Military Obedience and State Formation after Rebel Victory, serves as the anchor for today’s conversation.
Brigadier General Allen J. Pepper is the commanding general of U.S. Army Security Assistance Command. A career foreign area officer with extensive experience across Africa, he has served in Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic.
--------
54:38
--------
54:38
Future of War Part I: Raiders at the Edge of Tomorrow
Episode 135 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast kicks off a four-part series on the future of war, pairing renowned author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold.
Our conversation centers on Cole’s short story Safe Harbor II, which envisions Marine Raiders operating in a near-future environment saturated with proxy terrorism, relentless information warfare, and AI-enabled surveillance. The story highlights how SOF teams will grapple with great-power adversaries who weaponize terrorist groups to justify intervention, forcing small units to fight not only for tactical advantage but also to control the strategic narrative.
Joining us for this episode is Major General Peter Huntley, Commander of Marine Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC). Together with August Cole, MajGen Huntley discusses how MARSOC is adapting to new technologies, why trust with partners remains a timeless necessity, and what qualities will continue to define Raiders in the decades ahead. The discussion underscores that while future operators will be hyper-enabled with drones, sensors, and advanced AI, the human dimension of warfare—trust, adaptability, and leadership—remains constant.
At the conclusion of the episode, listeners will hear a narrated excerpt from Safe Harbor II, immersing them in the dilemmas Marine Raiders may face in the conflicts of 2040.
Ben Jebb and Don Edwards are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Don with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.
--------
49:37
--------
49:37
The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan
Episode 134 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast explores the rising risks of conflict over Taiwan and how the United States and its allies can strengthen deterrence against Beijing.
Our guests begin by assessing why deterrence is faltering globally, from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how those events inform Chinese perceptions of American resolve. They then discuss the stakes of a Taiwan contingency—economic, ideological, and strategic—highlighting the island’s critical role in global semiconductor supply chains and as a thriving democracy on China’s periphery. The conversation turns to the balance of forces across the Strait, Taiwan’s defense culture, and the full spectrum of Chinese coercive activity, from gray-zone operations to potential military invasion. Finally, our guests offer recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and partners like Japan, Australia, and Europe can bolster deterrence before conflict breaks out.
Matt Pottinger is a distinguished national security professional who served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019 to 2021. He is the editor of The Boiling Moat, a new volume analyzing deterrence and security dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.
Matt Turpin is a former U.S. National Security Council Director for China and a retired U.S. Army officer. He is currently a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, where his research focuses on U.S.-China relations and strategic competition.
Ben Jebb and Katherine Michaelson are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Katherine with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.
The Irregular Warfare Podcast explores an important component of war throughout history. Small wars, drone strikes, special operations forces, counterterrorism, proxies—this podcast covers the full range of topics related to irregular war and features in-depth conversations with guests from the military, academia, and the policy community. The podcast is a collaboration between the Modern War Institute at West Point and Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
Colombia