Hold Your Fire!

In this first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s European Security Director Olga Oliker about the role of nuclear weapons in Europe. They examine how Russia’s nuclear threats have constrained but failed to halt Western support for Ukraine, why Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments has weakened European confidence in U.S. nuclear protection, and why Russian military planners still assume Washington could intervene in a war with another NATO member state. They assess efforts to reinforce the U.S. nuclear umbrella and expand the role of French and British arsenals. They also talk briefly about the latest round of U.S. diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. They discuss U.S. special envoy’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, why hopes for diplomatic breakthrough remain dim and the latest developments on battlefield.

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For more, check out our Europe page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could change the region. They discuss why talks remain fraught, how control over the Strait of Hormuz has become central to Iran’s demands, how negotiators might tackle Iran’s nuclear program and how Gulf states are recalibrating relations with Washington and Iran. They then turn to Lebanon, where continued Israeli operations and the future of Hezbollah could test U.S. diplomacy. They also discuss Gaza’s stalled ceasefire framework and the unresolved question of Hamas’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal. They end by looking at the growing strains in U.S.-Israel relations and whether Washington has a vision for Iran’s role in a volatile new regional order.

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For more, check out our Iran page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tigre” de la Espriella won by a razor-thin margin. They unpack a bitter campaign and what the result reveals about a country still deeply divided. They assess outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s legacy and the failure of his “total peace” policy, which sought to reduce violence through dialogue with Colombia’s many armed and criminal groups. They explain how those groups increasingly exert power by controlling civilians and local economies, rather than primarily by fighting the state. They also discuss De la Espriella’s promised security crackdown, the dangers it could bring, Latin America’s rightward shift and what to watch as he takes office.

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For more, check out our Colombia page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s return to power. They discuss the improved security across much of Afghanistan, even as many remain uncertain about the durability of Taliban rule. They examine the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on women’s and girls’ rights, particularly education, work and public life, and how these have undercut efforts to normalise relations abroad. They also look at the poppy ban and how it has affected rural livelihoods and the drug trade and how the Taliban now generate revenue. They then turn to the sharply deteriorating relations with Pakistan over Islamabad’s accusations that the Taliban are sheltering militants conducting cross-border attacks, and the uncertain prospects for talks between Kabul and Islamabad. Finally, they discuss the Taliban’s engagement with regional powers and their recent outreach to Europe and where the country is headed under their rule.

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For more, check out our Afghanistan page.
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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Lebanon. They look at the diplomacy behind the deal, the role of regional mediators and what the agreement reveals about decision-making in Tehran. They also discuss the stumbling blocks ahead during the 60-day timeframe the MOU sets for negotiating a more durable arrangement, including on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Finally, they look at the prospects for a broader regional security dialogue involving states that helped broker the understanding.

For more, check out our Iran page.

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