Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, chief of policy Stephen Pomper and Europe director Fabienne Hara to unpack the latest public rift between Washington and Kyiv and what could come next. They examine U.S. President Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Moscow, his renewed criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and how domestic political pressures ahead of November’s midterm elections are shaping his approach. They also assess the latest U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war. They then discuss Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and the mood in Ukraine ahead of the winter. They explore how European capitals can strengthen Ukraine’s position while confronting Russian sabotage and drone incursions and political divisions at home. Finally, they consider whether the midterms could alter Washington’s Ukraine policy.

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For more, check out our EU-Watch List entry Ukraine under Strain: The Choices Facing the EU and our Ukraine page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi to discuss the Houthis’ renewed offensive in Yemen and escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia. They examine Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, including a deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport and the group’s advances in Yemen. They discuss the largely defensive external support Saudi Arabia is receiving and the prospect of direct U.S. involvement. They then turn to Tehran’s calculations, exploring how Houthi advances and escalating attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz serve Iran’s efforts to pressure Washington but at the cost of worsening relations with the Gulf. They also discuss Iran’s evolving deterrence strategy and the collapse of the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding over Hormuz, before looking at the dangers of further escalation.

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For more, check out our Q&A Yemen’s War Moves toward Zero-sum Confrontation and our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page.
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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle Eastern powers’ competing interests could shape their responses to a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the risk of such a conflict becoming entangled with wars in Sudan. Finally, they consider what an urgent diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation would require.

For more, check out our last episode Back to War in Ethiopia? our statement Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia and our Horn of Africa page
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This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s alleged backing, and the threat it poses to the federal government. They also discuss how war-weary Tigrayans view the fighting and how the conflict could unfold. Finally, they explore the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, entanglement with Sudan’s conflict and wider regional rivalries, and whether diplomacy can halt the fighting and prevent a broader regional war.

For more check out our latest statement “Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia” and our Ethiopia page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s Director for Global Issues and Institutions, and Daniel Forti, Head of UN affairs, ahead of next week’s UN General Assembly high-level week. They explore the mood at the UN, its shifting relations with Washington and its shrinking role in peacemaking worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. They assess current Secretary-General António Guterres’s legacy, the contenders to succeed him and whether new leadership can reinvigorate the organisation’s peacemaking while defending the UN Charter’s principles and rebuilding relationships with powerful states. They also discuss how UN peacekeeping missions can adapt to fragile ceasefires and how much Western and non-Western mid-sized powers, which appear increasingly drawn to other forums, will invest in the UN’s future.

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For more check out our special briefing “Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027” and our multilateral diplomacy page.

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