Perspectives

Oil prices have been moving again, and Canadians are feeling it at the pump. But while changes in gas prices are easy to spot, the forces behind them can be much harder to untangle. 

In this episode, Jennifer Stevenson, Vice President and Portfolio Manager with Scotia Global Asset Management, explains what is driving oil and gas prices right now, why events far beyond Canada's borders can still shape what Canadians pay, and how refining, shipping routes, global demand, and geopolitical risk all feed into the price of fuel. 

She also breaks down: 


Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to global energy markets 


Why Canada is not facing shortages, but is still exposed to global price swings 


How refining capacity, transportation and financial markets affect prices at the pump 


What could keep volatility elevated even if the immediate disruption eases 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

1:30 - Jennifer Stevenson’s background in oil and gas 2:04 - What’s happening with oil prices right now 2:44 - Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important to global energy markets 4:04 - Whether there are alternate routes for oil and gas supplies 5:03 - How a global energy disruption can affect prices at the pump 6:04 - Why Canada is not fully insulated from global oil prices 6:24 - Why producing oil does not automatically mean cheaper gasoline 7:38 - How higher oil prices can affect Canada as an energy exporter 8:47 - How quickly global events can show up in gas prices 9:54 - Why gas station margins are thinner than many people think 10:43 - How today’s gas prices compare historically 11:50 - Why demand for gasoline does not fall much when prices rise 13:22 - What could happen if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues 14:48 - What reopening the Strait could mean for oil and gas prices 16:55 - Whether extremely high oil prices are possible 17:58 - How consumers and businesses can plan for price volatility 20:08 - What can be done to reduce vulnerability to oil price swings 21:20 - Main takeaways for Canadians from the current energy situation

For the fifth time in a row, the Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping interest rates unchanged as many economists expected.  

There are numerous economic factors the Bank of Canada says it’s monitoring before making any interest rate moves including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, flat GDP numbers and trade talks between CUSMA countries.  

When asked whether a cut or a hike to the 2.25% overnight rate is in the near future, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the situation is complex.  

“If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth. Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back on the podcast to break down what’s going on with the economy, whether recession risks are overblown and what Canadians can expect in the coming months.

Food inflation is becoming harder to ignore, and it may still have further to run. 

As geopolitical tensions push up energy prices, those pressures are beginning to move through the broader economy. If it persists, it could impact what Canadians pay for food. 

Scotiabank’s Rebekah Young joins the podcast to break down why food inflation remains persistent, how global shocks are moving through supply chains, and why there are few quick solutions in the near term. 

She also explains what this means for households, and why central banks may face more difficult decisions if these pressures continue. 

Key moments this episode: 

2:01 – What has caused food inflation since the pandemic 3:23 – Digging deeper into the economic factors behind food inflation 4:52 – How the current causes of food inflation differ compared to during the pandemic 8:10 – Which inputs are affected by the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz 9:30 -  Understanding fertilizer types and how it affects farmers in Canada 10:43 – How the war in Iran is affecting consumers 13:50 – How the upcoming grocery benefit aims to help some Canadians deal with food inflation 16:38 - How rising commodity prices could benefit Canada as a global producer of oil, fertilizer and more 19:27 – How the Bank of Canada is reacting to food inflation 22:24 – What Canada can do to stabilize food prices and mitigate risk for the future

The Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping the overnight interest rate at 2.25% as uncertainty looms with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the renegotiation of the trade deal between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault talked with us on April 29 to break down the complexities of the latest rate decision, the scenarios the central bank is weighing, what Canadians can expect in the coming months and any silver linings amid all the economic uncertainty.   

1:36 – JF weighs in on why the Bank of Canada decided to hold 2:37 – With inflation on the rise, could a rate increase be in store? 5:45 – What happens if oil prices rise and CUSMA talks deteriorate? 8:17 – What impact will the removal of the fuel excise tax for Canadians have on inflation? 9:15 – JF on why he expects interest rate increases in the coming months, as early as July 10:48 – What would need to happen to avoid an interest rate increase in July? 13:19 – What impact could measures and spending in the federal government's Spring Economic Update have on the economy and inflation? 15:31 – JF on what it all means for Canada's housing market 21:00 – What this means for those renewing their mortgage soon 22:43 – Main takeaways for Canadians

In this episode, we break down how gold functions in today’s financial system, from the different ways people invest in it to why it often gains attention during periods of inflation, volatility and uncertainty, with guest Robert Cohen, Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Scotia Global Asset Management. He is co-Portfolio Manager of Scotia Resource Fund as well as Portfolio Manager for Scotia Global Asset Management’s Dynamic-branded funds – Dynamic Precious Metals Fund and Dynamic Active Global Gold ETF, to name a few. Robertjoins the podcast to explain what’s behind gold’s recent rise, why central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, and how gold differs from other market assets.

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

 Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector are the views of the writer and should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by 1832 Asset Management LP.

These views should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. These views are subject to change at any time based upon markets and other conditions, and we disclaim any responsibility to update such views.

Key moments this episode: 

 2:07 - Robert’s background and how he got into gold and mining 

3:06 - What’s driving gold’s big rise right now? 

5:35 – What is a fiat currency? 

5:54 - Have we seen this kind of gold growth before? 

7:24 - Why Canada has no gold reserves today 

8:04 - Why other countries are still buying gold 

9:45 - What makes gold a safe asset 

10:46 - Why Canada matters in the global gold story 

12:19 - How much gold Canada may still have left 

13:54 - What the future of mining looks like in Canada 

15:18 - What role gold plays in a diversified portfolio 

16:33 - Where Robert thinks gold is headed next 

17:56 - The biggest misconception people have about gold 

19:08 - The main takeaway for Canadians watching gold right now