Bank of Canada 'coin toss' lands with a hold amid global economic uncertainty
The Bank of Canada announced that it held its policy interest rate steady at 2.75% — a pause after seven consecutive cuts — as uncertainty about tariffs and the economy continues to cloud the global outlook. Experts were split on whether the central bank would deliver a cut or a hold.
Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault returns to break down the announcement, provide some context around why the Bank of Canada went this direction, what it might say about the state of the economy, take stock of where we are with the ever-evolving global tariffs and much more.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
1:11- JF’s main takeaway from the Bank of Canada’s latest decision
1:54 - Was a hold the right call?
2:45 - What did we learn from the latest inflation data for March about the impact on the economy?
3:49 - The Bank of Canada laid out two illustrative scenarios for the economy, as it is difficult to create a forecast with so much uncertainty. JF explains why this is so rare, and walks us through the central bank’s two scenarios
5:52 - What does JF forecast as the most likely scenario?
7:17 - What is the probability of a severe recession in Canada?
8:56 - An overview of the current state of tariffs in Canada and internationally
12:00 - Are higher costs for businesses and suppliers starting to pass through to consumers?
13:08 - What are the impacts on Canada’s jobs market?
14:23 - What has the ripple effect been on the country’s housing market?
16:07 - JF’s cautious outlook for upcoming Bank of Canada’s decisions
18:22 - Main takeaways for Canadians
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20:45
What is Indigenous economic power? An interview with author and entrepreneur, Carol Anne Hilton
In this episode, our guest is Indigenous entrepreneur, CEO and founder of the Indigenomics Institute, Carol Anne Hilton. Her first book, Indigenomics: Taking a Seat at the Economic Table came out in 2021. Her new book is titled The Rise of Indigenous Economic Power: Deconstructing Indian Act Economics. You’ll hear a conversation between Carol Anne and Clint Davis, CEO of Cedar Leaf Capital, the first Indigenous-led, Indigenous-owned investment dealer in Canada. They talk about her new book, the massive potential of the Indigenous economy in Canada and more.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
1:30 – Carol Anne gives us an overview of her new book, The Rise of Indigenous Economic Power: Deconstructing Indian Act Economics
2:20 – What she aimed to accomplish with this second book
3:25 – Defining what Carol Anne’s new book calls Indian Act economics
6:03 – How the 1876 Indian Act still impacts Indigenous economic development today
8:25 - How Indian Act economics also impacts non-Indigenous Canadians
10:57 – Carol Anne tells us about the ‘phenomenal rise of Indigenous entrepreneurs’
13:48 – The goal of creating a 100-billion-dollar Indigenous economy in Canada
17:12 – Why traditional GDP may not properly capture Indigenous economic power and strength
18:43 - Do we need to get rid of the Indian Act in order to fully unleash the economic potential of Indigenous Peoples?
20:30 – What is the role of the federal government to empower Indigenous economic growth?
22:30 - What does Indigenous economic power look like today and how is it shifting?
24:58 – How the unique location that Carol Anne wrote part of the book helped clarify the themes she was writing about
26:21 – Why focusing on Indigenous economic inclusion is especially important during these times of economic uncertainty
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29:02
More than just fishing - breaking down the diverse and vibrant Atlantic Canadian economy
When they think about the economy of Canada’s Atlantic provinces — New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador — no doubt many Canadians’ minds first go to the fishing industry. But it's so much more than that. In fact, the Atlantic economy has taken on a new sense of vibrancy and diversity in recent years. Scotiabank’s Atlantic Regional Senior Vice President Nicola Ray Smith and David Chaundy, the President and CEO of The Atlantic Economic Council, join us to help break down the current state of the economy in Atlantic Canada.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
1:54 – David gives us a snapshot of the Atlantic Canadian economy
4:22 – What Nicola is hearing from her clients about the general mood around the Atlantic Canadian economy
6:18 – David gives a surprising stat about the Atlantic Canada fishing industry and a primer about what other industries play a significant role
9:24 – What sector is a growth area in the region?
9:53 – What other Canadians may be surprised about when it comes to the Atlantic Canadian economy
13:40 – How population growth and shifting demographics factor into the economics of the region
17:35 – Both guests tell us what they see as the biggest challenges are for the Atlantic provinces from an economic perspective, as well as the biggest opportunities
22:56 – Nicola reflects on the significance of Scotiabank’s history in the region
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24:43
As Canadians head to the polls, a challenge to strengthen the Canadian economy
A federal election in Canada is just a few weeks away and top of mind for many voters is the economy and the volatile trade situation with the U.S. Rebekah Young, Vice President and Head of Inclusion and Resilience Economics at Scotiabank, is our guest to tell us how the election could be an opportunity to think about how we make the Canadian economy more resilient and less vulnerable to external forces.
Check out the Scotiabank Economics full report, Owning the Podium in Canada’s Federal Elections for more.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
1:40 – The crux of what this new Scotiabank Economics report is asking of campaigning politicians
2:57 – The specific number the report says politicians should be aiming for when it comes to economic growth (and why it was chosen)
6:43 – Why this challenge is necessary
9:26 – What are the policies a government might implement to achieve these goals?
14:01 – How is the responsibility divided up between public and the private sector?
17:10 – How the threat of tariffs and economic uncertainty are making us rethink things like interprovincial trade and regulation
20:00 – Some of the short term or temporary measures that could help achieve the proposed economic goal in the report
23:57 – What Rebekah and the economics team will be looking for as the campaign rolls out
27:07 – What should Canadians be looking for in an election campaign?
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28:26
Unpacking the latest interest rate cut as tariff situation escalates
The Bank of Canada has announced it has cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 2.75% amid looming threats and what the central bank called “pervasive uncertainty”. Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault returns to the podcast to help unpack the announcement, how the uncertainty alone may be impacting Canadians, the outlook for Canada’s economy, and much more.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
1:35 - JF’s main takeaway from the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut its policy rate
2:27 - Did the central bank make the right decision?
2:28 - Where are we at in terms of inflation in Canada?
7:17 - Could the tariff measures implemented to date and the uncertainty alone push us into recession?
10:02 - JF’s thoughts on rate cut decisions for the rest of the year
11:07 - What are the chances of an interest rate increase at this point?
11:53 - What JF has to say to Canadians who may be worried
12:39 - JF’s main takeaways from the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision
Each week we help break down the important economic issues on Canadian’s minds. With our unique access to leading experts, timely insights and helpful explainers, we navigate the latest in the world of finance, housing, business, the markets — and more.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
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