Perspectives

With a slightly more positive but cautious tone, the Bank of Canada announced Wednesday that interest rates would stay put, marking its sixth consecutive hold.

As part of the decision announcement, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem outlined three key messages for the country’s population. First, after a rough start to the year economic growth looks to have resumed. Secondly, that inflation is poised to ease and, lastly, that uncertainty remains high.

Two uncertain factors the central bank will be monitoring closely are the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations and how the war in Iran is impacting global oil prices.

"We've been looking through the direct effects of higher oil prices on inflation, but the longer they remain elevated, the bigger the risk they spill over to other goods and services," Macklem said.

To help break down what Canadians should make of the decision and expect in the coming months, Olivier Gervais, the Director of Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank joins the podcast.



For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures



Key moments this episode:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:46 Olivier's Bank of Canada Experience

00:03:02 Why the Bank Held Rates

00:05:13 Canadian Business Resilience

00:05:58 Iran Conflict and Oil Prices

00:07:11 CUSMA Renegotiation Outlook

00:08:15 What Employment Data Tells Us

00:09:29 Inflation and Grocery Prices

00:10:27 What Would Lower Inflation?

00:10:57 Canada's Housing Market

00:13:04 Mortgage Renewals

00:13:57 Rate Outlook for the Months Ahead

00:15:42 Looking Ahead to September

00:16:05 Key Takeaways for Canadians

Oil prices have been moving again, and Canadians are feeling it at the pump. But while changes in gas prices are easy to spot, the forces behind them can be much harder to untangle. 

In this episode, Jennifer Stevenson, Vice President and Portfolio Manager with Scotia Global Asset Management, explains what is driving oil and gas prices right now, why events far beyond Canada's borders can still shape what Canadians pay, and how refining, shipping routes, global demand, and geopolitical risk all feed into the price of fuel. 

She also breaks down: 


Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to global energy markets 


Why Canada is not facing shortages, but is still exposed to global price swings 


How refining capacity, transportation and financial markets affect prices at the pump 


What could keep volatility elevated even if the immediate disruption eases 

For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures 

Key moments this episode: 

1:30 - Jennifer Stevenson’s background in oil and gas 2:04 - What’s happening with oil prices right now 2:44 - Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important to global energy markets 4:04 - Whether there are alternate routes for oil and gas supplies 5:03 - How a global energy disruption can affect prices at the pump 6:04 - Why Canada is not fully insulated from global oil prices 6:24 - Why producing oil does not automatically mean cheaper gasoline 7:38 - How higher oil prices can affect Canada as an energy exporter 8:47 - How quickly global events can show up in gas prices 9:54 - Why gas station margins are thinner than many people think 10:43 - How today’s gas prices compare historically 11:50 - Why demand for gasoline does not fall much when prices rise 13:22 - What could happen if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues 14:48 - What reopening the Strait could mean for oil and gas prices 16:55 - Whether extremely high oil prices are possible 17:58 - How consumers and businesses can plan for price volatility 20:08 - What can be done to reduce vulnerability to oil price swings 21:20 - Main takeaways for Canadians from the current energy situation

For the fifth time in a row, the Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping interest rates unchanged as many economists expected.  

There are numerous economic factors the Bank of Canada says it’s monitoring before making any interest rate moves including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, flat GDP numbers and trade talks between CUSMA countries.  

When asked whether a cut or a hike to the 2.25% overnight rate is in the near future, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the situation is complex.  

“If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth. Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do — there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back on the podcast to break down what’s going on with the economy, whether recession risks are overblown and what Canadians can expect in the coming months.

Food inflation is becoming harder to ignore, and it may still have further to run. 

As geopolitical tensions push up energy prices, those pressures are beginning to move through the broader economy. If it persists, it could impact what Canadians pay for food. 

Scotiabank’s Rebekah Young joins the podcast to break down why food inflation remains persistent, how global shocks are moving through supply chains, and why there are few quick solutions in the near term. 

She also explains what this means for households, and why central banks may face more difficult decisions if these pressures continue. 

Key moments this episode: 

2:01 – What has caused food inflation since the pandemic 3:23 – Digging deeper into the economic factors behind food inflation 4:52 – How the current causes of food inflation differ compared to during the pandemic 8:10 – Which inputs are affected by the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz 9:30 -  Understanding fertilizer types and how it affects farmers in Canada 10:43 – How the war in Iran is affecting consumers 13:50 – How the upcoming grocery benefit aims to help some Canadians deal with food inflation 16:38 - How rising commodity prices could benefit Canada as a global producer of oil, fertilizer and more 19:27 – How the Bank of Canada is reacting to food inflation 22:24 – What Canada can do to stabilize food prices and mitigate risk for the future

The Bank of Canada announced it would be keeping the overnight interest rate at 2.25% as uncertainty looms with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the renegotiation of the trade deal between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.  

Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault talked with us on April 29 to break down the complexities of the latest rate decision, the scenarios the central bank is weighing, what Canadians can expect in the coming months and any silver linings amid all the economic uncertainty.   

1:36 – JF weighs in on why the Bank of Canada decided to hold 2:37 – With inflation on the rise, could a rate increase be in store? 5:45 – What happens if oil prices rise and CUSMA talks deteriorate? 8:17 – What impact will the removal of the fuel excise tax for Canadians have on inflation? 9:15 – JF on why he expects interest rate increases in the coming months, as early as July 10:48 – What would need to happen to avoid an interest rate increase in July? 13:19 – What impact could measures and spending in the federal government's Spring Economic Update have on the economy and inflation? 15:31 – JF on what it all means for Canada's housing market 21:00 – What this means for those renewing their mortgage soon 22:43 – Main takeaways for Canadians