Warrior Diplomacy English

What will shape power in 2026?

In our geopolitical outlook, we assess how emerging structural trends will define the year ahead: Economic coercion, mounting strain within democratic systems, and the re-emergence of spheres of influence.

We also revisit our Winner, Loser, and Disruptor of 2025 and assess who is best positioned to respond to emerging geopolitical pressures in 2026.

🇨🇳 Can China’s unique mix of communist and market-driven policies compete with, or even surpass , the West?

In this episode we talk with Aaron Chan, Managing Director at YPFP Washington DC and Senior Associate at the Asia Group, to dive into the forces shaping China’s future , from demographic shifts to technological ambitions, and ask: what challenges could slow its rise, and what might give it the edge on the global stage?

Related episodes
What if China invades Taiwan?

The new age of great power competition

The new economics of power

(00:00) -  Introduction
(03:28) -  Economic & Structural Challenges
(20:08) -  Political setbacks & the issue of succession
(43:11) -  Geopolitical & external concerns

The age of rules-based globalisation is fading. In its place, a harsher economic reality is emerging, one where tariffs, sanctions, subsidies, and control over critical resources are wielded as weapons of power.

In this episode we talk with Yash Kalash from The Geostrata to unpack how Trump’s economic nationalism, China’s push for parallel institutions, and India and Brazil’s strategic manoeuvres are reshaping the global economic order. Will the world split into hardened rival blocs? Or will we drift into a more fluid, multipolar landscape where emerging economies finally get a say in writing the rules?

Discover more:
The Geostrata
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy

(00:00) - Introduction
(04:38) - From Multilateralism to economic cohesion
(24:58) - Global responses: Brazil and India Focus
(46:39) - The World Ahead: Multipolar or Fragmented?

Related Episodes:
Europe’s unrealised geopolitical potential
The new age of great power competition: Deals and Dominance

🇪🇺 The European Union has the size, resources, and ambition to be a global power, yet in moments that matter, it’s often left on the sidelines.  The Trump–Putin meeting on Ukraine is a stark reminder: Europe may be consulted, but others still call the shots in its own neighbourhood.

In this episode, we explore why the continent’s growing economic and defence muscle hasn’t translated into decisive geopolitical clout, and what it would take for the EU to step fully onto the world stage.

Recommendations:
​The new age of great power competition: Deals and Dominance​

(00:00) - Introduction
(02:55) - Europe's new defence and economic posture 
(22:34) - Political Gaps & National Divides
(36:03) - The EU in a changing world order

🇮🇱🇵🇸 The conflict between Israel and Gaza won’t end with a ceasefire alone, not until the deeper root causes are addressed.
In this episode, we speak with Middle East expert Gerhard Pulfer to go beyond the headlines and look into the political, ideological, and geopolitical forces fuelling the war.
From Israeli domestic politics to Hamas’s shifting strategy, and from U.S. diplomacy to regional power plays, we ask: what’s really keeping this conflict going, and what would it take to bring it to an end?

Recomendations:

​The Struggle for Power in the Middle East
​Powder Keg Middle East: Beyond the Headlines - An Insider Report by Gerhard Pulfer

(00:00) - Introduction
(03:12) - Sources of Tension
(29:30) - Regional and Global Geopolitics
(49:59) - Between two States and one reality