Australia’s future: Senator James Paterson on strategy, technology and securing the economy
Stop the World is hosting a short series of conversations with Australian politicians that transcend daily politics and breaking news to get to the fundamental strategy and security challenges Australia faces. In the first of the series, we speak with Shadow Finance Minister, Senator James Paterson. James shares frank views on Australia’s strategic risks, the need to deter authoritarian powers, his advocacy for higher defence spending—despite his instinctive fiscal prudence—and the role technology can play in boosting the economy so Australia doesn't get left behind by the transformative power of artificial intelligence. He talks about balancing his classical liberal support for an open economy with the need to safeguard strategic industries and technologies, the responsibilities of the tech industry, the maintenance of the Australia-US alliance under the unconventional Trump administration, and the need to prioritise future generations so young people don’t become disillusioned with politics. James has been a Senator for Victoria since 2016 and has previously served as Shadow Minister for Home Affairs and Cyber, and chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security.
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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her fight for Belarus’ freedom
In this special episode of Stop the World, David Wroe speaks with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian democracy advocate who leads a government-elect from exile. After dictator Alexander Lukashenka declared himself winner of the 2020 election despite sweeping evidence that the people had chosen Sviatlana, 1.5 million Belarusians took to the streets, sparking a brutal crackdown and Sviatlana’s deportation to neighbouring Lithuania. Sviatlana says that the fight for freedom has made her more human, that it’s “not just about politics—it's about love. It's about dedication. It’s a fight not only for your family, but for your country.” She tells the story of how 2020 unfolded, the nature of the regime and its repression, Lukashenka’s deep dependence on Vladimir Putin—and the price that Putin extracts—the importance of Ukraine’s liberation, the role of the United States and the security of Europe. She also shares her own story, including the five-year imprisonment of her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, an activist and blogger whom she replaced at the last moment as a 2020 candidate after Siarhei was abruptly detained on trumped-up charges. As the interview took place, news was breaking that Poland was forced to shoot down several Russian drones, at least some of which came from Belarus—a reminder of what’s at stake in both Belarus’ and Ukraine’s fights for freedom.
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NATO futurist Florence Gaub on forecasting the future to shape the future
History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.
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‘Geopolitical gaslighting’: Hybrid threats expert Elisabeth Braw on Iran, Russia and the new gig economy for bad guys
This week, Australia made international headlines when it revealed Iran had directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia using local criminals as proxies. In response, the Australian Government expelled Iran’s Ambassador, the first time we have done so since World War Two. While this sort of activity is new for Australia, it fits a growing pattern in Europe where Russia and to some extent Iran have been using this tactic of hiring what are in effect gig workers to carry out such sabotage operations against other countries. To discuss hybrid threat activities and explain this tactic of using disposable agents, David Wroe speaks to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Elisabeth details the methods of sabotage, the purposes of sabotage to interfere in other countries and their politics and the enabling role of technology in these activities.
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Mark Galeotti on Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy and the European posse
Donald Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, then with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, then with a posse of European leaders who joined Zelenskyy as back up. Everyone was polite to one another, but as Russia expert Mark Galeotti reminds us on today’s episode, there were a lot of questions left unanswered.Mark, who hosts the popular podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, says the best thing about the string of meetings over recent days was that it might kick start the hard work of proper, behind-the-scenes detailed negotiations, without which meetings of leaders aren’t going to advance the peace process. He talks through all the key issues, including the talk of a temporary ceasefire, the difficulties of security guarantees—particularly a European “coalition of the willing” with boots on the ground—the prospects for further sanctions on Russia, Russia’s broader intentions towards Europe, Putin’s own challenges at home, and the need ultimately for Ukraine to build up its own defence industrial base, and sustain a long-term military force that can protect the nation without massive international support.Mark is the author of Putin’s Wars, The Weaponisation of Everything, We Need To Talk About Putin and his latest book, Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World.
Everything seems to be accelerating: geopolitics, technology, security threats, the dispersal of information. At times, it feels like a blur. But beneath the dizzying proliferation of events, discoveries, there are deeper trends that can be grasped and understood through conversation and debate. That’s the idea behind Stop the World, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s podcast on international affairs and security. Each week, we cast a freeze-frame around the blur of events and bring some clarity and insight on defence, technology, cyber, geopolitics and foreign policy.
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