Balance of Power

With the House of Representatives returning to Washington after August recess, the likelihood of a government shutdown -- only 20% in our view -- led Bloomberg Intelligence's Aug. 31 Washington Policy Pulse. The House will most likely embrace a Senate deal that extends the government funding until Dec. 11 before leaving town to further campaign ahead of the midterm elections. A potential vote on a separate measure on a Russian sanctions package will likely be pushed back until after the election.
We also discussed President Donald Trump's announcement of a deal in Venezuela to have the US take a stake in Venezuela's oil fields. Analysis from BI's energy team suggest that while Chevron may embrace the deal, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil may be more hesitant. We also previewed a forthcoming meeting with energy executives at the White House on Sept. 2.
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Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
House members return to Capitol Hill after a monthlong break with a crowded docket and just 16 days in session to complete it before the November midterm elections.

A planned vote to avoid a fall government shutdown is atop their to-do list, and continued GOP hopes of a third party-line budget package loom over other legislative priorities lawmakers want to pass and campaign on in their districts.

House leaders have to contend with delays in progress due to the Senate being in recess until Sept. 14 and several high-profile legislative packages involving cryptocurrency and college sports stalled in that chamber.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Tyler Kendall.
Former US Army Europe Commanding General Ben Hodges.
Stonecourt Capital Partner Rick Davis and Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center Visiting Democracy Fellow Jeanne Sheehan Zaino.
Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey.
Republican Congressman Rich McCormick of Georgia.
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Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and said policymakers must be confident that it is, otherwise the central bank has “work to do.”

In a sweeping speech, his first since becoming chairman of the central bank in May, Warsh reiterated that policymakers will return inflation to their 2% goal, which he said is a firm and fixed target.

“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job,” Warsh said at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall is in for Kailey. Joe and Tyler speak with:
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee.
Retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray, Democratic Candidate for Florida's 13th Congressional District.
Stonecourt Capital Partner Rick Davis and Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center Visiting Democracy Fellow Jeanne Sheehan Zaino.
White Oak Pastures Owner Will Harris.
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Insight & analysis on the White House and Capitol Hill.
Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
President Donald Trump announced he was moving to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, escalating his clash with Canada after trade negotiations between the two nations collapsed.

Trump on Thursday signed a directive changing the name of the lake and said the move would take place “effective immediately.” The president previewed the move in a social media post earlier this week. The order signed by Trump said the Interior Department had 30 days to change the name in federal databases and materials.

“Canada has been ripping us off for a long time on trade,” Trump told reporters when asked what message he was sending to the US’s northern neighbor. “They want to be treated like they’re a state, and so we just can’t do that anymore.”
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall is in for Kailey. Joe and Tyler speak with:
Bloomberg White House Correspondent Kate Sullivan.
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst.
Jersey 1st President Rosemary Becchi and Maywood Strategies Principal Douglas Farrar.
Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee.
Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Kathryn Edwards.
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Utah Governor Spencer Cox discusses Meta’s settlement, arguing the amount should have been much higher, yet argues the more consequential result is the equitable relief requiring child accounts, age-gating, parental controls, algorithm changes, overnight restrictions and healthy pauses. Cox thinks Meta buried research showing significant harms to young users and says Utah will use the money to mitigate those harms, help struggling children, and create more opportunities for them in the real world. Cox spoke with Bloomberg's Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall.
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