Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy.

00:00 Introduction

01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz

03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait

05:19 Cruise Missile Threat

11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem

19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf

26:43 Kharg Island

31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf?

36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them.
 
00:00 Introduction
 
02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place
 
12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds
 
14:33 Alternative Tariff Options
 
22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs
 
31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs
 
38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.

00:00 Introduction

01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting

08:43 The Rare Earths Truce

11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal

12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments

16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year

17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World

18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal

20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export

Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.

 

00:00 Introduction

01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy

10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending

19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions

30:10 Economic Headwinds

32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats.

00:00 Introduction

00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones

09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types

15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense

26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems?

28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare

29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery?

31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems?

34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses

36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses

38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics

44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s 

 

NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones