Iceberg. Dead Ahead: Tariff Chaos, Shadow Repo and Liquidity Crisis.
There’s a hidden market that might crash the economy in 2025. Tariff chaos. Leverage in the Repo Market. A burgeoning liquidity crisis. There’s an iceberg, dead ahead, only we can’t see below the surface to know how big it is. In this episode Max takes a big swing at the existential crisis brewing in the financial markets. Trump’s tariffs, declining economic data and slumping global demand will potentially neutralize half of the Fed’s crisis response arsenal. The logical and expected response to what is shaping up to be a catastrophic summer is the “Fed Put.” In other words, another bailout. But if the Fed looks to expand its balance sheet to accomplish this during a liquidity crisis, will the buyers of U.S. debt show up? Inflation and a weak dollar, frayed nerves in the bond market and more reckless behavior coming out of the White House could cause a run on the big banks and other firms that live in the “shadow repo” market leaving the Fed balancing the world on its shoulders. Access the episode resources. Resources Apollo Global Management: How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs? LendingTree: BNPL Tracker: 41% of Users Late in Past Year The Fed: What Happened in Money Markets in September 2019? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Treasury Market Dysfunction and the Role of the Central Bank -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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36:36
#5NN: This is How We Win. The 5 Non-Negotiables of the Left.
This is how we win. This is the closing argument of the project to build the foundation of the people’s platform and take over the Democratic Party: The 5 Non-Negotiables of the Left. Three to earn the trust of the American people to win back the country, and two to salvage our democracy and our planet. The Trump administration is the culmination of a 70 year neoliberal plan to divide the population and place the wealth of the nation and levers of power into the hands of the few. The dystopian doctrine that drives this agenda is rooted in fear born from economic precarity. As such, the opposite holds true as well. Everything positive is attainable when a population lives in economic security and has satisfied the most basic human needs. We need a politics centered on achieving this goal before we can broaden our horizon. To accomplish this we have to use the tools at our disposal, which means we have to take over most functional political apparatus available: The Democratic Party. Our contribution to this plan is simply to provide structure and clarity. This is how we win. Access the episode resources. Chapters Intro: 00:00:30 Non-Negotiable #1: 00:26:16 Non-Negotiable #2: 00:28:14 Non-Negotiable #3: 00:30:04 Non-Negotiable #4: 00:31:59 Non-Negotiable #5: 00:33:56 The People's Platform: 00:36:22 Get Involved: 00:37:50 UNFTR Episode Resources Housing First: Non-Negotiable #1. Building a Civilian Labor Corps: Bracing for the AI Job Apocalypse: Non-Negotiable #2. Medicare for All: Non-Negotiable #3. Election Integrity: Getting Money Out of Politics: Non-Negotiable #4. Climate Action: Non-Negotiable #5. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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39:13
Show Notes [A Special Visit]
We have a special edition of Show Notes today! In a rare occurrence, Max, Manny and 99 were all in the same place and they took to the mics to mark the occasion. Enjoy! -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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1:04:54
The U.S. Dollar and 10 Year Treasury: Why Economists Are Freaking the F*ck Out.
Are there hidden market patterns that signal massive economic change? A weak dollar and rising yield on the ten year treasuries sent Wall Street into panic mode over fears that Trump was torching the global economy with his tariff wars. Since 1945 the U.S. dollar has been the bedrock of the global economy. Trump’s reckless behavior has allies and enemies alike wondering if this is the end of U.S. hegemony in the world. Last week when the dollar and ten year treasury yield briefly split, the global bond market suddenly came into focus and was on everyone’s radar. This episode boils down the jargon to explain what’s going on and why everyone freaked out. Ultimately, while we may not tear down the global order, there’s no question that we won’t restore faith in the U.S. Dollar and economy until Trump is out of office. Access the episode Show Notes. Resources Compound Real Estate Bonds: Bond Vigilantes: Definition, Role & Impact on Markets EWA: The Relationship Between US Dollar Index and US 10 Year Treasury Bond Investopedia: Bonds: Treasury Yields and Interest Rates CNBC: Investors are growing concerned about a U.S. asset exodus as Treasurys and the dollar decline Privalgo: The relationship between bond yields and currencies ScienceDirect: International capital flows and U.S. interest rates St. Louis Fed: Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) St. Louis Fed: Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) Darden Report Online: What the Sell-Off in Treasuries Means for Your Mortgage The Washington Post: Fact Check: Has Trump declared bankruptcy four or six times? -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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20:34
Phone A Friend: Zohran Mamdani. Meet the Democratic Socialist Candidate Making Waves in NYC’s Mayoral Race.
We have a cool one for you today, a conversation with New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. Currently, Mamdani is a member of the New York State Assembly. He’s a Democratic Socialist running in the Democratic primary against a pretty busy slate of contenders, and he’s polling second to former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who only recently entered the race. Now Mamdani was the first candidate to hit the fundraising threshold for city matching funds—setting it in record time—and doing it primarily through small dollar donations. His campaign is extremely organized, and it’s galvanized New Yorkers in every borough with a stunning clarity of message. Now, in many ways, to us, at least, Zohran has captured the zeitgeist as it feels like his campaign is a proxy for the discontent felt not just in urban areas, but throughout the country. So it’s our great pleasure to welcome to the show Zohran Mamdani. Resources Zohran for NYC Website Zohran on Facebook Zohran on Instagram Zohran on TikTok Zohran on Bluesky UNFTR Resources Watch the interview on YouTube. Access the transcript. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Unf*cking The Republic® (UNFTR) is a series of audio essays on the grand American experiment lovingly curated and presented by a quasi-anonymous political writer.
Each essay reflects on a singular topic that is generally misunderstood or purposely obfuscated by the so-called “powers that be.” As we know, history is written by the victors and can be perilously manufactured to favor destructive world views. These views become intractably ingrained in the public consciousness and pervert public policy, oftentimes with horrific results.
As of this podcast’s founding, we find ourselves living in a true kakistocracy. The disconnect between what we believe and what is actually happening below the surface or in plain sight is where this podcast lives.
Together we’ll upend conventional wisdom, blow up narratives on the left, right and center and use magical devices like facts, logic and reason to explain how exactly we arrived in bizarro America, the funhouse mirror version of what was originally intended. #UNFTR
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