Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
It was another monumental week on the China front.On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:The details of the trade agreement, as we know themWhat China thinks it got out of the dealThe pros and cons of the one-year timeframeFuture tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiralKendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:The headline macro takeaways from the FYP ProposalsChinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five yearsHow policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economyChina’s more assertive position on the world stageIt’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!
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1:11:24
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Ep 44 - Xi’s make or break moment + USCBC’s Sean Stein on US-China volatility
Alright folks, this one is a banger.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China relationshipHow the fentanyl issue offers the most promising path toward building trustThe impact of the BIS’ new 50% rule on corporate complianceWhy US companies still value the China market (The reasons might surprise you!)It’s so good you’ll want to listen to it twice.By the by: The fellas mention this report in the pod, which is very much worth checking out, as well: China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035
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1:13:25
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Ep 43 - Volatility and fragility: US and China seek path back to negotiating table
It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.
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Ep 42 - Back on the escalatory spiral
Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.
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Ep 41 - China's economy is strong and weak at the same time
Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."
Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
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