The Trivium China Podcast

US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies.
Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.
In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China.
On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:
Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that "multi-modal" strategy reveals about how it actually innovates
How brutal domestic competition, not central planning, is driving some of China's biggest technological breakthroughs
Why Beijing tolerates crushing margin pressure on its own battery makers, and what it's betting that pain buys
The uncomfortable case for the US actually licensing "second-best" Chinese tech, rather than racing to rebuild it from scratch

Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place.
There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.
On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack:
The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too far
Why Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involution” 18 months ago, and what that rhetorical swap is designed to do
How China frames itself as both free trade’s champion and its victim, and why that framing leaves little room for compromise
Why the US may have the least at stake here economically, and why Europe is where this fight actually gets decided
As always, we hope you enjoy the discussion – reach out and let us know any thoughts or feedback.

China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year.
In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.
Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.
Let us know what you think about the new format!
On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:
How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what form
What "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidies
Why Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cuts
Why none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up

A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test.
His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.
Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.
On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Trivium Tech Analyst Bao Linghao (Shanghai) to unpack:
Why DeepSeek's "no KPIs, no organization" culture is likely genuine rather than an investor pitch, and how a market-based valuation helps retain talent
Whether DeepSeek's open-source commitment survives once – or if – it actually leads the frontier, given the pull to cash in once you get there
What Liang's "restraint" framing on pricing really means, and how DeepSeek's infrastructure edge lets it stay cheap without bleeding margin
Why Kimi K3's release upended assumptions about the US-China compute gap, and how "bench-maxxing" has muddied claims about how close Chinese models really are
Whether China's crowded field of base-model labs is finally headed for real consolidation
Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in.
Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.
Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.
Look for more of these in your feed soon.
On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:
Why MOFCOM's reported talks with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zhipu on export controls could reshape how Chinese model weights get released
The three priorities Beijing is trying to balance: model competitiveness, security risk, and controllability
How Kimi K3's release has intensified US anxiety, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floating possible sanctions over model distillation
What Xi's WAIC speech signals about China staying committed to open source while tightening the regulatory leash
Give it a listen and let us know what you think.