The Trivium China Podcast

During Xi Jinping’s late-September visit to Washington, the US and China extended their trade truce – but more than a month later, there’s still no Federal Register notice or amended MofCom announcement formalizing it.
Jessica DiCarlo, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Utah, calls this “managed interdependence,” not de-escalation.
And she says the idea that Beijing can simply flip an on-off switch on minerals processing and shipments underappreciates the complexity of the sector’s regulation in China.
On this latest episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk and special co-host Cory Combs (Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) sit down with Jess (a scholar and co-founder of the Second Cold War Observatory) to unpack:
Why China’s rare earth sector is regulatorily “fractured,” and how local officials, provinces, and firms – not just Beijing – shape what actually gets mined and shipped
Why processing, not mining, is China’s genuine chokepoint
How cobalt underscores the deep interconnection between China and other countries (e.g. the DRC) in the minerals space: about 96% of Congolese cobalt goes to China for processing
Why China’s real edge may be guaranteed buyers up and down the supply chain, and why price swings keep sinking Western projects like Idaho’s cobalt mine
The “minerals at the margins” – like hafnium, zirconium, boron, and beryllium – that may become strategically important, and why definitions of “critical minerals” keep changing
Why the idea of a “just transition” for mineral mining belongs in the security debate, not on the sidelines
Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

China’s GDP growth rose to 4.5% y/y in Q3, after slipping to 4.3% in Q2. That puts it right at the bottom edge of Beijing’s 4.5–5% target range.
On the surface, that looks like a real pickup. A closer look tells a less encouraging story.
Nearly all of the growth came from China’s record trade surplus, which rose almost 30% y/y. Consumption and investment added very little.
Joe Peissel calls it “hollow growth.”
On this episode, Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) fills in for regular host Andrew Polk. He sits down with Joe (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:
Why nominal GDP grew 6%, its fastest pace since 2022, and why that comes from cost pressures caused by the Iran war rather than a healthier economy
The price-versus-volume story behind September’s export boom
Why September’s pickup in retail sales and services spending owes more to the iPhone 18 launch and an early Mid-Autumn holiday than to any real recovery in consumption
Why Beijing’s latest support package, including its new mortgage subsidy, will help China hit its growth target but won’t fix weak demand
And why Beijing’s bet that tech-led growth will eventually lift household spending isn’t paying off

On October 8, the PBoC published an essay – in both English and Chinese – defending China’s exchange rate policy and pushing back on foreign calls for the RMB to appreciate.
Just like MofCom’s July essay on overcapacity, the piece takes aim at the fundamental premise of Western policymakers’ complaints rather than answering them directly.
Beijing has now taken two key economic issues that advanced economies keep raising – the currency and overcapacity – and essentially said “suck it up, we’re not changing.”
The upshot: China is going to press this model until something breaks.
On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:
The PBoC’s three arguments defending its currency policy – from competitiveness to the lack of any agreed way to value a currency – and why Dinny thinks there’s some truth in each, while the essay as a whole “misses the wood for the trees”
Why capital controls complicate the case for a stronger RMB: with deposit rates thin and property and stocks sagging, how much money would leave if China let it?
The PBoC’s proposed fix: adjusting global imbalances by having deficit countries (read: the US) tighten their budgets while surplus countries like China boost consumption, and why Dinny calls this a pie-in-the-sky solution
Why Beijing’s playbook with Europe looks like buying time, trading small concessions for room to keep its model intact

Back in July, when the Politburo met to discuss economic policy, officials signaled little more than incremental policy tweaks were on the horizon.
But fast forward to early October, and Beijing has rolled out a slate of support measures, including a fresh debt quota for local governments, more policy bank lending, and new interest subsidies for mortgages.
Dinny McMahon calls it a clear pivot – Beijing is now more concerned about the economy than it was a couple of months ago.
That said, the recent moves largely amount to a familiar Q4 policy top-up.
Meanwhile, deleveraging – Dinny argues – is still on.
On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:
Why the most important measure in the latest suite of moves was letting local governments tap part of their stockpile of unused debt quotas – and why an RMB 550 billion release is still consistent with deleveraging
How policy bank lending is being revived to fund Beijing’s investment in the “six networks,” and why local governments are struggling to find infrastructure projects that clear Beijing’s own bar for financing
Why Beijing is subsidizing loan interest payments instead of cutting interest rates directly – and Dinny’s argument that the subsidies are partially a disguised method of recapitalizing the banks
Why this support package won’t fix weak demand, but how it could still help by boosting infrastructure investment and helping overdue payments to firms land just before the critical Chinese New Year holiday period

For the first time in recent memory, a senior Chinese economic official is really pushing the idea that China needs to control its debt-to-GDP ratio.
In a recent Qiushi essay, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out why credit growth has to slow.
Trivium made this call back in July, when deleveraging sounded like a wild idea given how weak the economy is.
Dinny McMahon’s take: “We feel quite validated.”
On this quick-reaction episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny (Head of China Markets Research) to unpack:
The three conditions Beijing needs to enable deleveraging, and why the Iran war and the export boom checked two of them
Where Beijing is already pulling back on borrowing: policy bank bonds, bankers’ acceptances, and special-purpose bonds
Why Beijing cares so much: a debt-to-GDP ratio of 305%, up more than 50 points since 2021, and an aging population that will require borrowing capacity in the future
The “sprint and reset” theory: Beijing is ratcheting investment down to a new base while exports hold up, and Dinny’s verdict that it’s making hay while the sun shines