The Trivium China Podcast

China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years.
The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack.
But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.
So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.
On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:
Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalance
The hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually falling
The one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)
Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirely
Putting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end.
Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race.
But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one.
Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models.
Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users.
On this week’s episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Eric discusses China’s approach to building AI offerings in the Global South with host Andrew Polk – but only after the two run through the flurry of travel and diplomacy Xi Jinping is undertaking throughout September.
The two discuss the implications of Xi’s travels, then turn to China’s AI strategy in the region, touching on:
How Xi turned a single stop in Egypt into a four-birds-one-stone diplomatic play, touching on the Iran war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Africa-China relations, and the dynamics around Xinjiang all at once
Why the India-China thaw is real but fragile, and why Xi and Modi's sideline meeting at the upcoming BRICS summit matters more than anything on the summit's official agenda
Why China’s AI push into the Global South won’t really be about the models themselves – but about enabling those models with Huawei servers, support contracts, and services sold on top of free, open-weight code
Why the "China is less secure" pitch against Chinese AI companies doesn't land in a Global South that trusts Washington about as little as it trusts Beijing
Why nobody in the Global South expects much from Xi's Washington visit, and why the mood in Beijing right now is just as hardened as it is in DC
Strap in – we cover a lot of ground in this one!

The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is.
To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of play.  
In this episode, host Andrew Polk and Trivium colleague Cory Combs sit down with Evan to unpack:
Why Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington, the first in over a decade, may be the one thing still holding the relationship together
How the trade war became a supply chain war back in April 2025, and why tariffs aren’t the main event anymore
Why China keeps reaching for chokepoints tied to US national security instead of hitting the broader economy, and what that reveals about Beijing’s actual theory of leverage
The uncomfortable new front opening up: Beijing increasingly penalizing American companies for the crime of complying with US laws
It’s another great discussion, so enjoy!

Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home.
Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.
Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written.
On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:
Why lumping AI labs, e-commerce platforms, and cybersecurity firms into the single regulatory category of “cyberspace enterprises” is a bigger deal than it sounds
The story behind AliExpress’s EUR 550 million EU fine, and why Chinese companies keep getting tripped up by rules they don’t fully understand
One vague line in the CAC’s latest policy doc that might matter most: Beijing says it will “regulate the overseas competitive behavior” of its own tech firms, with zero detail on how
Why cleaning up Chinese tech companies’ act abroad might get Beijing branded as the bad guy either way

China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.”
Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.
On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:
How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggest
How the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectors
Why deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poison
Why even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume