The Trivium China Podcast

It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.
On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accomplish, and where the relationship may go next.
Jon gets into:
Why the current US-China situation is more temporary stalemate than budding stability  
China’s evolving strategy for managing Trump and the broader bilateral relationship
The significance of Beijing’s proposed framework for “Constructive Strategic Stability”
How China views US leverage – and its own leverage – in trade, critical minerals, and supply chains
How the Iran war is shaping the broader geopolitical context for US-China diplomacy
Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macroeconomic analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest batch of Chinese macro data, which showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity in April.
The two discuss:
How the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are weighing on China’s industrial sector
Why investment activity weakened more than expected last month
The hidden policy changes dragging on infrastructure investment
Continued weakness in Chinese consumption and consumer confidence
What the latest data means for Beijing’s broader economic outlook

The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it?
On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.
The two discuss:
Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light on concrete outcomes 
The significance of China’s high-level diplomatic treatment of Trump 
What to watch for on export controls and a possible extension of the Busan agreement 
The prospects for a future “board of investment” mechanism governing US-China capital flows 
How Iran and the Strait of Hormuz factored into the talks 
Andrew and Cory also assess why both sides appear eager to stabilize relations – even if major structural tensions remain unresolved.
Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to break down the PBoC’s latest quarterly monetary policy report and what it reveals about Beijing’s economic priorities.
The two discuss:
Why the PBoC is signaling greater concern about currency stability 
How the Iran war is reshaping China’s monetary policy calculus 
Why interest rate cuts may now be less likely in 2026 
Potential reforms to how mortgages are priced in China 
Beijing’s intellectual defense of its export-led growth model

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.
On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.
The two discuss:
China’s first-ever use of its blocking rules
Why Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refiners
The growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systems
How China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolving
Why uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategy
Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.
The three discuss:
Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the year
How the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costs
Beijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investment
Why consumption remains the economy’s weakest link
Whether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026
Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?
In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.
The two discuss:
Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwound
How Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new ways
The role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech deals
China’s growing concerns around technology outflow
What this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competition
Andrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?
This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:
The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responses
China's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policies
The US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controls
US-China strategy as the leadership meeting approaches
And more!
With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.