The Trivium China Podcast

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.
On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.
The two discuss:
China’s first-ever use of its blocking rules
Why Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refiners
The growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systems
How China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolving
Why uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategy
Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.
The three discuss:
Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the year
How the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costs
Beijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investment
Why consumption remains the economy’s weakest link
Whether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026
Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?
In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.
The two discuss:
Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwound
How Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new ways
The role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech deals
China’s growing concerns around technology outflow
What this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competition
Andrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?
This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:
The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responses
China's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policies
The US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controls
US-China strategy as the leadership meeting approaches
And more!
With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.

China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.
To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:
Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy Stevens
And Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel
The three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss where key vulnerabilities are lurking, and look ahead to how the Iran situation may upend things, if and as it drags on.

There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.
Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.
China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.
To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined on this week’s episode by two of Trivium’s lead analysts on all things geopolitics, trade, and commodities – Joe Mazur and Even Pay.
The trio gets into:
China’s most immediate concerns – largely revolving around resource security
How Beijing’s patient buildup of commodity reserves over the past decade has now been vindicated
Whether Xi Jinping and company see any strategic upside from the confrontation
What, if anything, Beijing can do to influence the outcome
And what it all means – in China’s view – for the longer-term evolution of the geopolitical system
It’s another banger folks – you won’t want to miss it.