Ep 49 - I say overcapacity, you say involution, let’s call the whole thing off
In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacityWhy Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free marketWhat Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look likeAnd what it all means for the rest of the worldThen, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.
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Ep 48 - How Xi Jinping thinks about the rule of law + explaining why capital investment is tanking
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behaviorChina’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkitThe gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!
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Ep 47 - China Shock 2.0: the trade implications of China’s new economic growth model
With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.They discuss:How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensionsWhether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China ShockAnd how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods
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Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China
Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pauseHow political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businessesAnd whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full yearAndrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look likeThe reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first placeBenchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build outThe highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failureIt’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production
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Ep 45 - China’s perspective on the trade ceasefire + 15th Five-Year Plan breakdown
It was another monumental week on the China front.On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:The details of the trade agreement, as we know themWhat China thinks it got out of the dealThe pros and cons of the one-year timeframeFuture tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiralKendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:The headline macro takeaways from the FYP ProposalsChinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five yearsHow policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economyChina’s more assertive position on the world stageIt’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!
Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
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