The Trivium China Podcast

China’s approach to economic retaliation against the US continues to evolve, with the past 10 days seeing a new round of critical mineral export controls and the launch of an anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia.This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs to go through all the latest.The gents discuss:The details of China’s latest export controls on critical mineralsChina’s evolving approach to economic retaliation against the USWhy we all should have seen this comingThe most likely minerals next on China’s export control listChina’s new long-arm jurisdiction approach to enforcement of export controlsThe anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia – and the likely options moving forwardOne key takeaway: The timing of these most recent moves by China – as the Biden administration winds down and the Trump administration gears up – seems particularly canny.Biden can do little to respond.And Trump has no incentive to respond, at least not at this point.The upshot: China appears to be signaling to Trump that it is better prepared to fight back on the trade and tech war fronts this time around.So your move, Mr. Trump!

As the year draws to a close, it’s time for economic forecasts!In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025.To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top economic policymakers, expected to take place next week.The gents discuss their predictions for what the CEWC will decide regarding key policy settings for 2025, including:Interest ratesThe exchange rateFiscal spending

Xi Jinping had a busy week of diplomacy in South America, and in this episode of the Trivium China podcast we get into all of it.Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategyChina’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protectionismThe remarkably creative approach that Chinese officials seem to be prepping as a second US-China trade war loomsWhat to watch as China's approach to the US unfolds in the years ahead

On November 8, China finally unveiled its long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disappointed them and what they think comes next.They delve into:What the package means for financial stability and local government austerity policiesWhat additional fiscal support we can expect in the new yearWhy the package undershot expectationsThey also spend some time discussing Beijing's uninspired response to weak household spending, and whether authorities have misdiagnosed a structural problem as cyclical.