Impolitic with John Heilemann

John welcomes Des Moines-based Democratic strategist Matt Paul for the second installment of a special two-part episode on the midterm elections in Iowa. A longtime adviser to former two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack who also served as Iowa state director on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, Paul argues that despite all appearances over the past 10 years—during which the Hawkeye State voted three times for Donald Trump (and by a 12-point margin in 2024)—Iowa has simply been masquerading as a red state; that the results on November 3 will, at a minimum, signal its return to its natural purple hue; and may wind up marking the beginning of the end of the Trump era.

John welcomes longtime Republican strategist Dave Kochel for the first part of a special doubleheader on the midterm elections in Iowa—and whether the state that launched Barack Obama may be about to swing back to blue after ten years of dominance by Donald Trump’s G.O.P. An Iowa native who ran Mitt Romney’s caucus operations in 2008 and 2012, confidant to former six-term governor Terry Branstad and current two-termer Kim Reynolds, and adviser to Senate candidate Ashley Hinson and congressman Zach Nunn, Kochel argues that while his party is facing fierce political headwinds, Democrats are too optimistic about their prospects in a state where the blue team’s brand remains borderline toxic.

John welcomes longtime Democratic consulting partners and Clinton 1992 icons James Carville & Paul Begala to discuss their party’s prospects in the midterm elections. James and Paul argue that the House is rapidly shifting from a blue wave to a blue wipeout; that Democratic optimism about flipping Senate seats in deep red states (Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi) is warranted, even as their side is danger of losing on more hospitable territory (Michigan, Maine, and even Minnesota). They also offer theories as to why Donald Trump can't stop talking about Ohio GOP Senator Jon Husted’s ass.

John welcomes Cook Political Report election guru Dave Wasserman to discuss the outlook for the midterms. Wasserman argues that rising prices, an unpopular war, voters’ increasing focus on government corruption, and Republicans’ failure to distance themselves from Donald Trump have put them in an “impossible position” two weeks out from Election Day; Trump’s record-low approval ratings, coupled with his insistence on making the election a referendum on himself, are making his party’s already dire situation even worse; the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting gambit has ended up yielding next to nothing; and Democrats are all but guaranteed to retake the House (potentially picking up north of 20 seats) and narrow favorites to recapture the Senate, too.

John welcomes Neera Tanden, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress, to discuss the midterm elections and the fierce fights among the Democratic Party’s warring factions. Tanden explains the combination of factors that she believes will lead to a thorough repudiation of Donald Trump and the GOP on November 3; why the unexpected strength of Democratic Senate candidates in ruby red states such as Alaska, Kansas, and Iowa illuminate a path to consigning MAGA to the dustbin of history; and her view of the place the DSA should have in the big-tent coalition her party needs to build. She also offers what she claims will be her final words on her ongoing feud with leftist streamer Hasan Piker.