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The Debate

The Debate
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151 episodios

  • How vulnerable is the Gulf? Iran war escalation undermines energy security

    05/03/2026
    Who's paying for this war? First and foremost, the people of the Middle East, who are directly in harm's way. But who pays the financial cost if Iran continues to target the lifeline for the region's oil and gas? Maritime employers out of London are officially designating the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian and Arabian Gulf a "warlike operations area". We ask what that means and how much pain is to come.
    The United States is far less reliant on the region's crude than the last time Iran mined the narrow waterway that ships one-fifth of the planet's supply. But how about Asia and Europe, which is bracing for another Ukraine war-style jolt in natural gas prices?
    As France and the UK dispatch warships, how do NATO allies defend their interests without getting sucked into a war they didn't choose? How to handle a US president that's been pressuring them – with some success – to relax the switch to renewables and "drill, baby, drill"?
    More broadly, how vulnerable are Gulf states, whose petrodollars fuel massive investments in artificial intelligence and whose skyscrapers in the sand depend on that other precious lifeline: water? How safe are the Arabian Peninsula's desalination plants, for instance, in these dangerous times?
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Christophe Bauer.
  • Iran's wartime succession: What direction after Khamenei?

    04/03/2026
    What does succession look like in Iran? The wait continues after last Saturday's assassination of the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader of nearly 41 years. We ask about calculations and delays in the nomination, as Israeli and US bombs continue to rain down and Tehran continues to put up a fight, with drones and missiles launched at Saudi oil fields and in the direction of a NATO base in Turkey.
    Despite the destruction of its navy and Israel's vow to kill whoever succeeds Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can the regime outlast the enemy? It's counting on a state apparatus unmatched by any of its Middle Eastern neighbours. 
    And what about the civilians still reeling from January's horrifying crackdown on nationwide protests, a movement that was leaderless? Are they running for the hills or preparing for the next battle?
    Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.
  • How far will it escalate? Iran draws in region as Israel, US expand campaign

    03/03/2026
    It's only Day 4 and already, an under-attack Iran has drawn in the whole Middle East: targets include the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, oil and gas installations up and down the Gulf and France’s military base in Abu Dhabi. It's all part of Iran's strategy to employ cheap homemade drones to shut businesses, spook markets and scare away tourists as it defends itself against an existential threat that saw its leader eliminated in the opening hours of the US and Israeli bombing campaign. 
    Read moreIn pictures: Israel launches simultaneous strikes on Tehran and Beirut
    That Israel would pound and even occupy parts of Lebanon to counter any response by Tehran proxy Hezbollah was to be expected, but what about the wider escalation? How far will it go? Both Israel and the US are warning of heavier bombing still to come. 
    While the casualty toll mounts, ordinary Iranians asking the same question as panic buyers at French filling stations: how big a spiral? And how long will it last?
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.
  • From air strikes to boots on the ground? US-Israeli campaign against Iran escalates

    02/03/2026
    What's the plan and does it go beyond dropping bombs from the sky? On Day 3 of the US and Israeli campaign that's killed Iran's supreme leader, the United States insist there will be no boots on the ground. But while the US defence secretary talks of nuclear installations and missile launchers, the US president has spoken of laying the groundwork for regime change. Already, the escalation has gone well beyond last June's 12 days of bombing raids.
    Did the Pentagon properly prepare for Tehran firing not just on Israel alongside its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, but also targeting Gulf states, with missiles landing as far away as Cyprus? The missiles have shut down Qatar's gas production, damaged at least one oil field in Saudi Arabia and shut the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway that ships more than one fifth of the world's oil and gas.
    We hear the Trump administration's rationale for starting this war, weigh the unintended consequences that might result and ask whether a US president who's so often used his military to push red lines – from the 2020 assassination of charismatic Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani to the seizing of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro – can use force as he pleases against an Islamic Republic that back in January proved it was unafraid to slaughter its own people by the thousands if that's what it takes to ensure its survival. 
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.
  • Make-or-break talks? Iran looks to sway Trump and avoid US strikes

    26/02/2026
    What would it take for Donald Trump to call off air strikes against an Iran that's told Omani mediators it sees a pathway to compromise over its nuclear programme? We delve into where the veteran Tehran team of veteran negotiators can entice US envoy Steve Witkoff, whose red lines sometimes include the Islamic Republic's missile programme, sometimes less so. 
    Neither side is drawing much attention to the actual situation inside Iran, where after the thousands killed in New Year's protests, fresh dissent has erupted as Amnesty International warns of looming executions of tortured demonstrators, some as young as 17.
    Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout
    Watching from the sidelines are France, Germany, the UK and the other signatories of the 2015 UN agreement that Trump ripped up in 2018.
    Where to put the accent? And what's this showdown ultimately about?
    Produced by François Picard, Antonia Cimini, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

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