The Debate

Iran proving that missiles don't need to travel thousands of kilometres. Across the Gulf is all it takes to force the world’s mightiest army to the bargaining table. Pressure on the choke point for one-fifth of the planet’s oil and gas exposing the vulnerability of Arabian peninsula monarchies.
They'd spent decades building reputations as reliable havens of stability fueled by an endless supply of petrodollars. We’ll track the price of crude, the latest movement of tankers through the Strait…prospects for talks, and ask how Gulf states could rethink their alliances with Washington, particularly investments that can sometimes seem like protection money to pay for the US defense shield from Tehran and proxies like the Houthis that in the past already hit oil installations.
With Russia and now China accused of actively aiding Iran target neighbors, where do those Gulf states turn for their defense? Are they all of the same mind when it comes to Iran? And more broadly, can they restore the veneer of the dream destinations displayed by social media influencers who fled when the fighting started?
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Delphine Liou.

Israeli and Lebanese envoys are appearing together on camera in the same room – that may well be a first. It's happening under the auspices of the US secretary of state in Washington. If you're rooting for peace, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that the Lebanese government's never been so vocal in calling on Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah to disarm and the US president has a real stake in reining in Israel if he wants his attempts to strike a deal with Tehran to bear fruit. 
Read moreUS hails 'historic opportunity' for peace after Lebanon, Israel talks in Washington
The bad news is that the fighting continues, with Israel accused of the Gaza-style levelling of villages in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah refusing both surrender and disarmament.
Will Israel set up for good, pushing boundaries like it did recently in neighbouring Syria? A week ago, Benjamin Netanyahu was depicted as omnipotent with outlets like The New York Times reporting on how it was he who convinced Donald Trump to attack Iran.
If that was true, is it still the case? Or was last Wednesday's daytime bombing of Beirut that killed more than 300 people too much, even for Israel's closest allies?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Delphine Liou.

Eurosceptics may come and go, but there's only one Viktor Orban. It took 16 years and Sunday's record turnout in Hungary to vote out the seemingly unbeatable far-right leader who once boasted of building an illiberal state. Why did the far-right idol of MAGA world finally fall out of favour? And not just by a nose: "The Hungarian people didn't vote for a simple change of government, but for a complete change of regime," boasts Prime Minister-in-waiting Peter Magyar. How will the once-ally-turned-pro-EU conservative turn his constitutional supermajority into a rolling back of Orban's consolidation of power?
We ask about the task at hand and reactions abroad – starting with Russia, on which Hungary depends for its oil and gas. How to handle the Kremlin?
The sighs of relief in Brussels and Kyiv are audible, what with Budapest no longer championing a coalition of Eurosceptics that includes France's Marine Le Pen.
But it doesn't mean Hungary will always be pliant, nor that hostility from bigger powers will magically disappear.
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

A most confusing Wednesday it was. In the space of six minutes, during a single press conference, the White House spokesperson first hailed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, then called on Iran to reopen the world’s most oil-sensitive shipping lane. Five weeks of contradictory statements have bred wider uncertainty over the true contents of the ceasefire deal – and even who is party to it. Confusion moves markets, and in a war that has triggered the most severe energy crisis in decades, oil prices reflect that volatility: having fallen sharply on Wednesday, they have since climbed back above $100 a barrel.
And amid such turbulence, there are always those who sense an opportunity to profit.
We’ll examine who stands to gain, and how – whether this is simply smart investing, or something more troubling. With so much power concentrated in the hands of a single man, we’ll also ask whether greater scrutiny is warranted within the cabinet of Donald Trump, amid accusations that the line between national interest and personal profit may be blurring.
If it is oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, that is one thing. But what if it is the United States itself?
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

No apocalypse. Instead, an eleventh-hour ceasefire between Iran and the United States – one that is still being tested – with both sides claiming victory after five and a half weeks of war that may reshape how the world views them.
Meanwhile, there is no ceasefire in Beirut, where Israel has carried out its heaviest strikes yet on the capital, hitting multiple densely populated areas. Dozens are feared dead. Will Washington tell Israel to halt its operation against Hezbollah?
Then there is the Gulf. Even if the guns fall silent, it could take weeks – months, perhaps longer – to restore oil output to previous levels.
And finally, there is the ratcheting up of biblical rhetoric.
Faced with a regime where, for now, soldiers – not clerics – appear to hold sway, Donald Trump and his White House have issued the kind of doomsday threats more often associated with radical theocracies or rogue nuclear states. Will the world remember the threat to erase “an entire civilisation”, even if it never comes to pass?
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.