The Debate

Might is right… until it isn’t. 2026 began with US commandos seizing Venezuela’s president in a zero-casualty operation that put the rest of the world on notice. But now, Donald Trump’s first prime-time address in nearly five weeks of war is worrying markets rather than reassuring them. The US president is telling affected nations to buy more oil from him – and, if they are so concerned about energy security in the Strait of Hormuz, to go in themselves and sort it out.
How should Gulf, European and Asian allies react to this “I break it, you fix it” approach to warfare? Is it already too late to walk away? And even if Washington washes its hands of the war it started with Israel, how can a fresh ten-year cycle of instability in the Middle East be avoided?
For the United States, is this merely a passing blemish? Will the midterm elections rescue those hoping for a return to the previous world order? History suggests that, despite setbacks – from the failed 1980 hostage rescue in Iran to the insurgencies that bogged the US down in Iraq and Afghanistan – the United States has ultimately emerged undiminished as the world’s leading superpower.
But now Trump has picked a fight with an enemy that is both a state and seemingly capable of deploying insurgent tactics. Is this a turning point – the moment after which the United States of America no longer appears quite so mighty?
 
Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Are we witnessing globalisation’s biggest turning point since the end of the Cold War? With Asia feeling the impact of US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran, and steadfast American allies such as the Philippines forced to declare an energy emergency, the immediate consequences are rippling through nations that manufacture much of what we buy in the West – with a boomerang effect for the rest of the world.
Will they ever view the United States in the same light again? Especially under a president who favours spheres of influence and one-on-one hard bargains over international rules and global free trade. As so-called middle powers seek alliances that reduce dependence both on the US for defence and on China for goods, we’ll hear from the French president, currently on a tour of Japan and Korea.
At the heart of it all is what quite literally fuels capitalism: energy. We’ll examine the potential short-term return of coal, and look ahead to the longer-term outlook. Will the events of the past month discourage efforts to accelerate – or even maintain – the transition to renewables? And how can countries hedge against a world that, for now, seems dangerously dependent on warring oil and gas suppliers?
 
Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The Lebanese have seen it all: from civil war to the 2019 protests demanding an end to revolving-door politics; from the 2020 Beirut port explosion, which exposed the tragic consequences of nepotism, to Israel’s 2024 operation targeting its longtime foe, Hezbollah. Now Israeli ground forces have returned once again to confront the Tehran-backed group. Lebanon thus finds itself a second front in the month-long war launched against Iran.
We’ll be asking what it means to return to life in wartime: how the country is coping with 1.2 million displaced people, with UN peacekeepers killed or injured, and with the enduring question of how Lebanon can break free from half a century of armed factions acting as laws unto themselves. That outcome will depend in part on how regional powers fare in the current war. For decades, they have treated Lebanon as a vacant lot where scores are settled by proxy.
But it will also depend on the Lebanese themselves—on whether a younger generation can finally move beyond sectarian divisions and clan loyalties, and turn that ambition into lasting change.
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

What could possibly go wrong? As Donald Trump repeats threats of a Venezuela-style seizing of Tehran's oil exports and as US assault troops get in position, the price of oil is blowing past $110 a barrel, as markets take it at face value that the Pentagon is planning to make a grab for Kharg Island – the hub for nearly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports.
We ask about the pitfalls of sailing warships past the Strait of Hormuz for an invasion, the Islamic Republic's response, and how Gulf neighbours would view it all.
Since 1945, the United States has positioned itself as the Arabian Peninsula's main security guarantor. Will that still be the same when the dust settles?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

As G7 foreign ministers root for the off-ramp in the Iran war, François Picard’s panel weighs the damage done to the region, to the world economy and to transatlantic trust. From Donald Trump's threats against NATO allies to France denying it disinvited South Africa from June's G7 summit to placate Washington, we weighs US threats… and those of Iran.
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
 
 
 
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