The Debate

A most confusing Wednesday it was. In the space of six minutes, during a single press conference, the White House spokesperson first hailed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, then called on Iran to reopen the world’s most oil-sensitive shipping lane. Five weeks of contradictory statements have bred wider uncertainty over the true contents of the ceasefire deal – and even who is party to it. Confusion moves markets, and in a war that has triggered the most severe energy crisis in decades, oil prices reflect that volatility: having fallen sharply on Wednesday, they have since climbed back above $100 a barrel.
And amid such turbulence, there are always those who sense an opportunity to profit.
We’ll examine who stands to gain, and how – whether this is simply smart investing, or something more troubling. With so much power concentrated in the hands of a single man, we’ll also ask whether greater scrutiny is warranted within the cabinet of Donald Trump, amid accusations that the line between national interest and personal profit may be blurring.
If it is oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, that is one thing. But what if it is the United States itself?
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

No apocalypse. Instead, an eleventh-hour ceasefire between Iran and the United States – one that is still being tested – with both sides claiming victory after five and a half weeks of war that may reshape how the world views them.
Meanwhile, there is no ceasefire in Beirut, where Israel has carried out its heaviest strikes yet on the capital, hitting multiple densely populated areas. Dozens are feared dead. Will Washington tell Israel to halt its operation against Hezbollah?
Then there is the Gulf. Even if the guns fall silent, it could take weeks – months, perhaps longer – to restore oil output to previous levels.
And finally, there is the ratcheting up of biblical rhetoric.
Faced with a regime where, for now, soldiers – not clerics – appear to hold sway, Donald Trump and his White House have issued the kind of doomsday threats more often associated with radical theocracies or rogue nuclear states. Will the world remember the threat to erase “an entire civilisation”, even if it never comes to pass?
 
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Is Europe’s future on the ballot in Hungary? In Budapest, the US vice president is actively stumping for far-right incumbent Viktor Orban who trails in the polls ahead of Sunday’s general election. European politicians sometimes campaign for likeminded peers from neighbouring nations, but in this case, it is the United States openly taking aim at the bloc using the same talking points as Vladimir Putin’s Russia. 
We talk about whether JD Vance’s support helps or hurts Orban in the homestretch of a race where the 62-year-old populist has made a point of holding up the European Union’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine.
We also take a look at Orban's strategy and the opposition's claim that the prime minister attempted a false flag operation in neighbouring Serbia. 
More broadly, we assess how the nation of 9.5 million has fared under Orban’s 16-year rule. How has pushing Hungary as the avant garde of a white Christian anti-woke, anti-immigrant alliance served Hungary? And what is the opposition offering instead?
Produced by François Picard, Théophile Vareille, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente

Might is right… until it isn’t. 2026 began with US commandos seizing Venezuela’s president in a zero-casualty operation that put the rest of the world on notice. But now, Donald Trump’s first prime-time address in nearly five weeks of war is worrying markets rather than reassuring them. The US president is telling affected nations to buy more oil from him – and, if they are so concerned about energy security in the Strait of Hormuz, to go in themselves and sort it out.
How should Gulf, European and Asian allies react to this “I break it, you fix it” approach to warfare? Is it already too late to walk away? And even if Washington washes its hands of the war it started with Israel, how can a fresh ten-year cycle of instability in the Middle East be avoided?
For the United States, is this merely a passing blemish? Will the midterm elections rescue those hoping for a return to the previous world order? History suggests that, despite setbacks – from the failed 1980 hostage rescue in Iran to the insurgencies that bogged the US down in Iraq and Afghanistan – the United States has ultimately emerged undiminished as the world’s leading superpower.
But now Trump has picked a fight with an enemy that is both a state and seemingly capable of deploying insurgent tactics. Is this a turning point – the moment after which the United States of America no longer appears quite so mighty?
 
Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Are we witnessing globalisation’s biggest turning point since the end of the Cold War? With Asia feeling the impact of US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran, and steadfast American allies such as the Philippines forced to declare an energy emergency, the immediate consequences are rippling through nations that manufacture much of what we buy in the West – with a boomerang effect for the rest of the world.
Will they ever view the United States in the same light again? Especially under a president who favours spheres of influence and one-on-one hard bargains over international rules and global free trade. As so-called middle powers seek alliances that reduce dependence both on the US for defence and on China for goods, we’ll hear from the French president, currently on a tour of Japan and Korea.
At the heart of it all is what quite literally fuels capitalism: energy. We’ll examine the potential short-term return of coal, and look ahead to the longer-term outlook. Will the events of the past month discourage efforts to accelerate – or even maintain – the transition to renewables? And how can countries hedge against a world that, for now, seems dangerously dependent on warring oil and gas suppliers?
 
Produced by François Picard, Aline Bottin, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.