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The Debate

The Debate
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  • From air strikes to boots on the ground? US-Israeli campaign against Iran escalates

    02/03/2026
    What's the plan and does it go beyond dropping bombs from the sky? On Day 3 of the US and Israeli campaign that's killed Iran's supreme leader, the United States insist there will be no boots on the ground. But while the US defence secretary talks of nuclear installations and missile launchers, the US president has spoken of laying the groundwork for regime change. Already, the escalation has gone well beyond last June's 12 days of bombing raids.
    Did the Pentagon properly prepare for Tehran firing not just on Israel alongside its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, but also targeting Gulf states, with missiles landing as far away as Cyprus? The missiles have shut down Qatar's gas production, damaged at least one oil field in Saudi Arabia and shut the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway that ships more than one fifth of the world's oil and gas.
    We hear the Trump administration's rationale for starting this war, weigh the unintended consequences that might result and ask whether a US president who's so often used his military to push red lines – from the 2020 assassination of charismatic Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani to the seizing of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro – can use force as he pleases against an Islamic Republic that back in January proved it was unafraid to slaughter its own people by the thousands if that's what it takes to ensure its survival. 
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.
  • Make-or-break talks? Iran looks to sway Trump and avoid US strikes

    26/02/2026
    What would it take for Donald Trump to call off air strikes against an Iran that's told Omani mediators it sees a pathway to compromise over its nuclear programme? We delve into where the veteran Tehran team of veteran negotiators can entice US envoy Steve Witkoff, whose red lines sometimes include the Islamic Republic's missile programme, sometimes less so. 
    Neither side is drawing much attention to the actual situation inside Iran, where after the thousands killed in New Year's protests, fresh dissent has erupted as Amnesty International warns of looming executions of tortured demonstrators, some as young as 17.
    Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout
    Watching from the sidelines are France, Germany, the UK and the other signatories of the 2015 UN agreement that Trump ripped up in 2018.
    Where to put the accent? And what's this showdown ultimately about?
    Produced by François Picard, Antonia Cimini, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
  • Loosening grip? Trump skirts setbacks in State of the Union speech

    25/02/2026
    What does a boss who's built an image as a tough guy from Queens do when naysayers claim he's reached his limits? To dispel doubts, he can for instance hold the floor for an hour and 47 minutes. In the longest ever State of the Union address, US President Donald Trump proved he can stick to script instead of rambling.
    Trump was as combative as ever: bashing immigrants, Iran, the opposition Democrats and even the US Supreme Court for last week's ruling striking down many of his tariffs, the biggest pushback yet for a president who's wielded historically grand executive powers since returning to office 13 months ago. We ask about his plans to not only double down on tariffs – he's saying they can replace income taxes – but to do so without congressional approval.
    Read moreTrump’s marathon State of Union: Big claims and the questions he left unanswered
    We weigh Trump's methods, his arguments and ask about blurred lines between public policy and personal interest. As a term-limited president approaches midterm elections that could further corner a leader whose mantra's always been "attack, attack, attack", what will Trump do? And how's the rest of the world reading the moment?
    Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
  • Ukraine allies scramble on anniversary date: Is it Europe's war now?

    24/02/2026
    We think about war and peace like a light switch that's either flicked on or off. But Russia did not suddenly decide to swoop for Kyiv on a February night of 2022. To this day, it still refuses to call it a war, sticking instead to the less definitive "special military operation".
    And yet the writing had long been on the wall, and the actual war started long before: in 2014. Many, through blindness or necessity, refused to heed the warning signs. Even Ukraine's president continued to downplay the intelligence reports. When does rivalry turn to hostility, hostility to war, and are we sometimes at war without knowing it?
    Fast forward to the present day and there's no doubting what to call this long, brutal slog with its hundreds of thousands killed, its nightly air raids and its freezing homes due to the targeting of the power grid. How long can a war last?
    Or how long can peace last? Were the last eight decades the exception for a Europe that in that time went from the zero-sum game of the Cold War to the enlarged defence shield of a US-led NATO?
    As Washington's support for Ukraine now drops dramatically, what do the next four years have in store?
  • Why the threat of a bombing campaign? Trump's Iran gambit

    23/02/2026
    Forget the capture of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and those zero US casualties. Iran is not Venezuela and the Pentagon knows it. It's deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East along with a fleet of ships, aircraft and support to take on a weakened regime, but still a nation of 90 million that boasts a huge military with a homegrown arsenal of missiles and drones. Is the US prepared for all eventualities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for more than one fifth of the planet's oil and gas?
    Watch moreIran-US tensions soar as second US aircraft carrier approaches region
    More broadly, why this potential fight? Why now? How does the same Donald Trump who now chairs a Board of Peace actually view the use of force? The president who campaigned on the promise of no boots on the ground already crossed a red line last June when the US joined Israel’s bombing of Iranian nuclear installations. Will he pull the trigger this time?
    And how does the Islamic Republic and its supreme leader view an ultimatum that's mainly but not only about its nuclear programme? To ensure its survival, the regime mowed down protesters by the thousands back in January. Does it emerge further weakened or strengthened after what now lies ahead?

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